Tag: biiwii.com

China, U.S. & Inflation

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In light of today's positive economic data out of China, I thought I would reproduce a segment from NFTRH 255 (9.8.13) that speculated upon the possibility of a new up cycle in inflation expectations based in large part on China and its credit growth cycle (on which central planners have announced a planned clampdown). 

China industrial, retail data beat forecasts

The Greenspan Fed provides a handy reference as to how long it can take for a withdrawal of policy to manifest in a new economic deceleration. Continue reading "China, U.S. & Inflation" →

Macro Markets Shrug Off Policy Makers, Ready for a Pivot

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Once again we present the Treasury 'TICs' data for China and Japan, most recently available through June.  It can be argued that these two countries are the T bond market, when considering the volume in which they deal and their strategic status as heretofore T bond consumers.

tics

And now our long-running and most important macro chart, the 'Continuum' in long-term T bond yields; a monthly view of the 30 year yield and its 'limiter' AKA the 100 month exponential moving average (red line). Continue reading "Macro Markets Shrug Off Policy Makers, Ready for a Pivot" →

FOMC Minutes… Head for the Hills!!!

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While the MSM instigates reasons why we should give a damn about what people who have little control over the T bond market were thinking at the last meeting, why don’t we just tune it all out and manage the markets instead?

tyx, etc

The top panel shows the 30 year yield marching toward the traditional limiter AKA the 100 month EMA.  The pattern measures to 4.5% or so, so there could be a spike above and a hell of a lot of hysteria at some point.  That’s the collective markets; 98% hype, hysterics and emotion and 2% rational management.  Either the 30 year yield is going to do something it has not done in decades (break and hold above the EMA 100) or it is not.  Simple. Continue reading "FOMC Minutes… Head for the Hills!!!" →

Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction

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The 'Commodity' segment, excerpted and expanded upon, from NFTRH 251:

The commodity complex is famous for a sort of 'Whack-a-Mole' quality to it.  Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?  Uranium (2007)?  Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)?

Well today none of them are doing much.  Oil went up but could be topping, Copper went down but is bouncing hard, Uranium, Gas and Grains are nowhere.  The result is this… Continue reading "Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction" →

Momentum: By Definition it is Hard to Stop

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Momentum:

  1. the quantity of motion of a moving body, measured as a product of its mass and velocity.
  2. the impetus and driving force gained by the development of a process or course of events.

People trying to manage trend changes are by definition fighting momentum, which feeds on an established trend with powerful force.  A premium service I use and otherwise depend upon for analysis of conventional US stocks and sectors (i.e. non-precious metals, non-resources, non-global), [XYZ Premium, name omitted due to wider publication], provided a chart yesterday showing the S&P 500’s breakout to all time highs noting "And to think there are still people calling this a cyclical bull within a long-term secular bear market!" Continue reading "Momentum: By Definition it is Hard to Stop" →