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Gold, Silver & the Macro

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Those micro managing the precious metals are fixating on the Symmetrical Triangle (bearish continuation) and a coming 'Death Cross' of the MA 50 below the MA 200.

The Sym-Tri has been apparent for about three weeks and the Death Cross is hype put forth by those who would make grand TA statements.  The Death Cross means next to nothing.  I mean, how much good did the Golden Cross that the "community" was pumping in March end up doing?

gold

Gold is bearish and has been bearish by its technicals (below the 50 and 200 MA’s), and ever since the economic soft patch was was put behind us (cold weather, remember?) by its apparent macro fundamentals as well.  NFTRH has been keeping this situation locked down and in a box for future reference.  The box will be opened when the time is right.

Meanwhile, I'd suggest that people avoid micro managing gold.  It is not an idol or a religion, and while there is a whole industry champing at the bit to begin promoting it again, it is just a tool for retaining the value of money.  Sometimes tools sit in the toolbox.

As for silver… Continue reading "Gold, Silver & the Macro" →

ZIRP Era in Pictures

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) was instigated by a credit induced collapse of the US financial system and perpetuated in December of 2008 by desperate financial policy makers as a fix to problems they created in the first place.

In reality, it is simply an epic distortion of normal economic signals that cleaned up the mess created by previous policy distortions (like the commercial credit bubble of the Greenspan era) by systematically (5+ years and running) main lining new distortions into the system.

zirp

So in addition to this picture, which could one day hang in a monetary museum with the title ‘Grandma and Her Savings Account Bail Out Wealthy Asset Owners’, let’s take a walk down memory lane and marvel at some other pictures created by this policy… Continue reading "ZIRP Era in Pictures" →

Pigs no Longer Fly; What Are the Implications?

Posted on by admin

Along with the highly publicized loss of leadership from big tech, the US stock market is now in danger of losing another, and possibly more important leader, the piggies or banking sector.

While the weekly chart of BKX has not yet broken down, it is very close to doing so after sporting a negative RSI divergence for the better part of the last year. We should not jump the gun with bearish scenarios, but as always we want to be among those looking forward and ready, just like in 2007, which was the last time BKX-SPX began to roll over in earnest.

bkx

NFTRH has followed the BKX-SPX (leadership) ratio every step of the way during the current leg of the cyclical stock bull market. Most recently we noted that BKX-SPX failed to make higher highs on two occasions. This put the ratio – and by extension the stock market – on alert as we watched for a lower low.  Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to a lower low. Continue reading "Pigs no Longer Fly; What Are the Implications?" →

CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes

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Among its 29 pages of high quality market analysis, this week's NFTRH (#287) reviewed the Commitments of Traders (CoT) structures of a few markets and their implications.

cot.au

The above CoT graph clearly shows that gold has declined as the structure improved (red arrows). It then bottoms with the circled extremes and rises in conjunction with a degrading structure (green arrows). Gold is still on its journey toward bottoming. Continue reading "CoT – Gold, Silver, Commodities & T Notes" →

Big Pictures: Stocks, Gold and the Miners

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Ukraine war hype, China demand drop, GOFO mysteries… these are the short term noise inputs on the gold sector.

US Treasury bond yield spreads, gold vs. commodities (i.e. the 'real' price of gold), gold vs. the stock market… these are some of the fundamental considerations that actually matter and they have taken a hit since January.

It is easy to say 'I am bullish in the big picture' (measured in years) but it is not so easy to actively manage in the smaller pictures (measured in days, weeks and months) with all of the above noise inputs and more bombarding the poor individual player.

We use shorter term charts to manage the shorter time frames.  Daily charts have most recently indicated a bearish set up as bear flags formed across the precious metals complex (with the exception of silver, which never got going to begin with) last week.  Weekly charts continue to indicate that an extended and oh so grinding bottom may be forming, but that includes the potential for ups and downs, also known as volatility. Continue reading "Big Pictures: Stocks, Gold and the Miners" →