Tag: biiwii.blogspot.com

Is 30.2.Au flying in Ben's face? Not yet

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The FOMC announced that Operation Twist would continue through year end.  This is where the Fed tries to re-inflate the housing bubble (and related areas) by buying long term T bonds to artificially hold down long term interest rates while sopping up any inflationary implications to the money supply by selling short term T bonds.  Throw in a side of ZIRP, and you've got a lot of free money flying around out there with very subdued inflation effects.

Gold is in an orderly corrective consolidation.  Silver has been hanging around at support and is sponsored by a bullish CoT structure.  Commodities, even backing out the wildcards in agriculture, are in nice short-term bottoming patterns (copper is rounding upward and crude oil is breaking up from a small Inverted H&S with a target around 98) and just waiting for the Fed to lose control of the nice macro painting it has been working on since Op/Twist #1, back in September of 2011. Continue reading "Is 30.2.Au flying in Ben's face? Not yet" →

Wall Street to the Rescue?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Gary Tanashian

The story goes that our friends on Wall Street wink winked and nudge nudged with Alan Greenspan to cook up a massive bubble in credit and derived vehicles that eventually became malignant and spread toxic finance throughout the world.  That is not a pretty picture.

Fast forward to summer, 2012 and we find Wall Street strategists wildly bullish on T bonds (in opposition to the Federal Reserve's desire to buy them) and seemingly standing in way of the great and powerful Fed's Twist operation.  Are the Wall Street banks doing the public a service by showing the way to safety or are they simply holding up T bonds for the ransom of even higher prices than those denoted by today's record low interest rates? Continue reading "Wall Street to the Rescue?" →

Sector Updates

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Gary Tanashian

The NFTRH bullish stance (Dumb Money Sold in May and Went Away) from late May has proven correct.  I write that even as I confess to having had moments of doubt about my own analysis in a noisy June that saw US and global policy maker jawbones (and actions) going into hyper drive.

I had been responding to the Ticker Sense blogger sentiment poll (with respect to the market's status over the coming 30 days) as 'Biiwii, Bullish' for several weeks in a row until this week, when the response down-shifted to 'neutral' due to several gathering indicators that imply at least a short term top, coming soon.  I lean toward this being little more than a healthy correction in an overall constructive market for most of the balance of 2012.  That is just a 'lean' at this juncture.

But it is a lazy summer holiday week, and what better time to drop the nuts and bolts macro market analysis in favor of some simple sector updates?  This post will be uncharacteristically light by biiwii standards, which I think can sometimes feel like they are bashing readers over the head with hard core ratios and macro interpretations. Continue reading "Sector Updates" →

Let's Twist Again

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Gary Tanashian

http://www.biiwii.blogspot.com

The previous post of the same title was put up by a bemused blogger to express the idea that the big brains on the FOMC must think we are a bunch of drooling idiots, we Americans... and we global financial market participants.  Similar sentiments have been expressed on this blog in the past with my personal favorite nugget from popular culture era gone by: Continue reading "Let's Twist Again" →

Obsession With Central Bank Action is Unhealthy, But Typical

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By Gary Tanashian

June 18, 2012

The great question revolving around Greece is now answered.  It remained unanswered when the opening segment of NFTRH192 was written.  Here is how one writer was trying to deal with these and other questions over the weekend:

Obsession With Central Bank Action is Unhealthy, But Typical

"We’re seeing some positive sentiment return on account of a few things: the prospect of coordinated intervention in the event of a sloppy Greek election, or outright victory of an anti austerity party," such as Syriza, said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. –MarketWatch Continue reading "Obsession With Central Bank Action is Unhealthy, But Typical" →