aibek burabayev Archives - Page 46 of 59

It's Official, They Exit! Risk Aversion Chronicles: Gold Leads The Safety Demand!

Posted on June 24, 2016June 24, 2016 by Aibek Burabayev

Today is a historic day in World financial history, which will be recorded in our memory forever! And it was a long and sleepless night all over the world as financial markets were frozen in agonizing suspense.

We should admit that Britons are firm and consecutive in pursuing their goal of independence. Almost a quarter century ago, they decided to withdraw their currency from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) and they didn’t turn off their road yesterday on the final referendum.

Bookies and analysts got it all wrong as they forecasted the win of the "STAY” option, but more and more we have witnessed that all efforts to calculate human emotions and perceptions fail. The economic consequences for Brexit are harmful to the UK in a short term, but they still voted to leave. People are irrational in their behavior and the realization of this fact would bring the dramatic changes in the economic science in the future. Continue reading "It's Official, They Exit! Risk Aversion Chronicles: Gold Leads The Safety Demand!" →

Gold Vs. S&P 500: Fly To Safety?

Posted on June 15, 2016 by Aibek Burabayev

Chart 1. Gold Vs. S&P 500: Saucer Reversal Pattern

Gold Vs. S&P 500: Saucer Reversal Pattern
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The Gold/S&P 500 ratio made a new high this past February breaking above both the August 2015 and October 2014 maximums. It has finally managed to surpass the depressing red resistance. The break was strong and violent pushing the ratio from 0.51 low to 0.68 high. After it runs out of steam we always witness a pullback ( the market digests the price action), the ratio returned to the point of the break at the end of May and now is starting the next round up.

This is a very healthy market move as the price pulled back, but hasn’t broken below the starting point. The first higher high and higher lower are in place now. Once we get a new higher high, we can draw an uptrend with confirmed touch points. Continue reading "Gold Vs. S&P 500: Fly To Safety?" →

Gold & Silver: First Pullback

Posted on June 9, 2016 by Aibek Burabayev

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Second to Win but First to Hold

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The top metal has was just $4 from reaching the target of $1307 which was set in my March post. It had reached a high of $1303 on May 2nd before it started a one-month long correction anticipated in the same post. The depth of the correction is minimal at 38.2% and is well above the normal retracement area within the 50-78.6% range ($1176-$1101) highlighted in the March post. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: First Pullback" →

The Dollar Takes 'EM Down

Posted on May 24, 2016May 24, 2016 by Aibek Burabayev

Dear readers, I am very grateful to get all your feedback and suggestions that you kindly share with me all the time! Rasesh Shukla, one of our regular readers asked about the Emerging market currencies and particularly about Indian rupee in a comment this month. And I am pleased to share my thoughts with all of you in this post.

Chart 1. 5-Year Dynamics of Top FX vs. EM FX

5-Year Dynamics of Top FX vs. EM FX
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

I want to start with the comparison chart of the top currencies presented by inverse dollar index, consisting of 6 currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc (orange line) versus the emerging market currencies presented by WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW, green line). The former is quite representative, it tracks the value of the following 15 currencies: Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, Chilean Peso, Colombian Peso, South African Rand, Polish Zloty, Russian Ruble, Turkish New Lira, Chinese Yuan, South Korean Won, Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Thai Baht. Continue reading "The Dollar Takes 'EM Down" →

Copper Bites The Dust Behind Strong Oil

Posted on May 16, 2016May 16, 2016 by Aibek Burabayev

All of the top commodities have rebounded amid the dollar's weakness recently, but copper didn't follow the pack to make gains. I think we should take a chance as this misbehavior will not last for long.

Chart 1. Copper-Oil Correlation: Huge Divergence!

Copper-Oil Correlation
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The crude oil is very strong these days, although last time we have been witnessing its comparative weakness to copper. It looks like the Double Bottom reversal pattern is still making the game for oil with the first strong barrier at the $50 level.

This time, copper overreacted to the short-lived drop of crude hitting the $2.06 area, and this gap that we can see on the chart above kept at the following strong rebound. And then another weird thing happened – crude oil had a minor pullback and continued its upward move while copper overreacted again down to the previous low area at $2.06, this time with even larger divergence. Now look at the left part of the chart, the current gap reminds me the one-year-old situation – oil had stalled at the end of May 2015 while copper overcame it with a new high and then it dropped sharply to run down crude. Therefore, there is a high probability of copper catching up soon with the current oil price corresponding to $2.40-2.50 copper price levels.

Let's look at the copper chart below to find it out. Continue reading "Copper Bites The Dust Behind Strong Oil" →

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