aibek burabayev Archives - Page 25 of 59

Copper Trade: Stopped Out

Posted on April 8, 2019 by Aibek Burabayev

A month ago I got the short entry trigger in the copper futures. The idea started to emerge this February, and I was watching copper closely from that time and posted updates for you. And you witnessed how I moved entry triggers higher and higher until the price has finally pushed below the last one. And this was the true benefit of avoiding simple guessing to wait for the signal.

In the chart below I would like to show you how that trade was managed and what the outcome was.

Copper Futures Daily Chart: Walked Away Without A Scratch

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The price of copper showed great volatility around the entry level (blue line) moving within a 10 cent range between $2.87 and $2.97. This happens due to a clash of opposite market forces at the extreme levels. Finally, the bears took the ball and pushed the price not only below the range but also below the crucial orange trendline support. Copper has hit the one month low at the $2.8345 on the 25th of March. At that stage, the short position had a profit of 3%, and I moved the stop to breakeven to enjoy the safe ride. This is a part of trade management as we should try to avoid risks as much as we can because we cannot control the market; we can only control ourselves and manage our risk. Continue reading "Copper Trade: Stopped Out" →

Gold Update: Reversal Pattern Emerges

Posted on April 1, 2019 by Aibek Burabayev

Last time I updated the gold chart at the beginning of the year I focused on the long-term consolidation, which has started at the end of 2015 and has a tricky structure as all corrective stages do. I shared with you the three most feasible options of structure development.

The first one implies the straight move up beyond the former top of $1375 (blue labels), it took only 22% of your likes. The second option, which you liked the most (48%), offers triangular consolidation (green labels). The third alternative (red labels) gained 30% of your support, and it could bring gold back down to retest $1122 area before it goes up.

I am proud to have such smart readers of my posts as most of the time you accurately predict the market behavior as last time you did it with a Santa Claus rally of precious metals. These days I spotted one notorious pattern, which could terminate the first option, which collected the least support from your voting, that amazes me again and again.

Gold Daily Chart: Possible Head And Shoulders Pattern

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "Gold Update: Reversal Pattern Emerges" →

Palladium Pushed Platinum To Record Low

Posted on March 12, 2019March 12, 2019 by Aibek Burabayev

A year ago I wrote about the platinum/palladium ratio as it was on the edge, and there were two possible options, to restore the historically normal supremacy of platinum (target 1.93 oz) or to prolong the triumph of palladium (target 0.56 oz.).

This month the Platinum/Palladium ratio hit a new record low of 0.55 oz. amid the rocket move to the upside in the palladium market; the latter became the most precious metal beating gold. Let’s take a look at the big picture below.

Chart 1. Platinum/Palladium Ratio Monthly: New Record Low

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The chart above starts with a robust growth to the upside from 3 to 5 oz. and this move had set the “normal” range for the fluctuations of the ratio within the next two decades. It was interrupted only once in 1997 when the ratio fell out of the range and quickly dropped to establish a previous record low of 0.56 oz. in 2001 amid rumors that Russia would ban palladium export. It was a textbook example of a “sell rumors - buy facts” market behavior, the ratio was down on rumors and then when the reality didn’t confirm it the ratio quickly returned to the normal range making a beautiful V-shape pattern. Then the ratio had spent another decade in that range. Continue reading "Palladium Pushed Platinum To Record Low" →

Copper Triggered A Short Entry

Posted on March 4, 2019 by Aibek Burabayev

So, dear traders, our patience was finally rewarded last week. Copper has provided us an even better opportunity as the price climbed higher to make a deeper retracement and the distance of the drop is now even greater. We started from the $2.75 level, then we moved higher to $2.885, but none of them were activated.

I spotted the famous reversal pattern on the chart, which adds to my structure analysis and I will show it in the chart below.

Let’s go through the trade setup steps again as the entry signal was triggered.

Step 1. Chart Analysis and Step 2. Trading Idea

These steps can be skipped as we already know what we are looking for.

Step 3. Trade Setup

We should prepare a Sell Setup to enter the trade using specific entry, stop and take profit levels. These are the things that make a trade. If you don’t have all three levels in your mind, you better avoid trading as it would become mere gambling. Continue reading "Copper Triggered A Short Entry" →

Copper Update: This Is How I Would Trade This Sell Setup

Posted on February 25, 2019 by Aibek Burabayev

Two weeks ago I put the spotlight on copper as I found there was a nice trading opportunity in the making. The trigger for the short trade was set at the $2.75 (below minor low) to avoid emotional trading or simple guessing, and it paid well as the price dipped from the $2.84 area and stopped 2/10 of the cent above the preset trigger. Then the price reversed much higher as I expected as it should retest the former top of $2.87 before it finally goes down.

We call it a trade setup. Before that, we had an idea, which was based on some kind of analysis. So, converting good ideas into profitable trades makes us better traders. Add patience, discipline and some sort of trading strategy to get consistent profits. Otherwise, a good idea could remain to be just a good idea without pleasant outcomes for us.

Let me show you in this post how I would trade this copper idea on the short side step by step.

Step 1. Chart Analysis: Copper Futures Daily,

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "Copper Update: This Is How I Would Trade This Sell Setup" →

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