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Gold Prices Climb Amid Global Uncertainty: Why Barrick Gold Could Shine in Your Portfolio

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In times of economic instability, gold has long been a favored asset for investors looking to hedge against market turmoil. Recently, gold prices have surged amid a climate of rising geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and sluggish global growth. During the third quarter of 2024, gold prices soared above $2,600 per ounce, setting a new record. This uptick reflects heightened demand as investors seek safer places to store wealth, reacting to fears about recession risks and volatility in equity markets.

As central banks around the world struggle to tame inflation without stifling growth, many are drawn to gold’s historical role as a hedge against currency devaluation. Geopolitical conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East have only heightened investor anxieties, further driving the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Gold’s Status as a Safe Haven

Gold’s appeal is simple: when the world becomes more unpredictable, the yellow metal shines brighter. Unlike fiat currencies, which government policies can manipulate, gold retains its intrinsic value, independent of interest rate fluctuations or monetary interventions. This makes it a reliable store of wealth in volatile markets.

During times of inflation, gold tends to perform well. Historically, during periods of high inflation, the purchasing power of currencies falls, but gold holds its value, if not increases. In 2024, with inflation rates hovering stubbornly above central bank targets across much of the developed world, the asset has become a go-to for those seeking a buffer against rising prices.

Barrick Gold’s Strategic Position

Amid this backdrop, Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) stands out as one of the world's premier gold mining companies. With robust operations across North America, Africa, and Latin America, Barrick's strong production capabilities place it in a prime position to capitalize on rising gold prices.

In Q2 2024, Barrick produced 948,000 ounces of gold and 43,000 tonnes of copper, affirming its solid operational footing. The company’s realized gold price during this period was $2,344 per ounce, a significant jump from the $1,972 per ounce seen in Q2 2023. Barrick’s ability to generate stable output despite operational challenges showcases its resilience.

Additionally, Barrick continues to invest in high-growth, low-cost projects, including the Goldrush project in Nevada, which is expected to deliver an annual output of over 400,000 ounces by 2028. Meanwhile, projects like Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic are expanding capacity, ensuring production remains robust beyond 2040.

A Rock-Solid Financial Position

Investors are drawn to Barrick not just for its production prowess but also for its financial strength. The company’s balance sheet is one of the healthiest in the mining sector. For Q2 2024, Barrick reported net earnings of $370 million, up 25% from the prior quarter. This was underpinned by a strong operating cash flow of $1.16 billion, a 53% increase quarter-over-quarter. Free cash flow also surged, rising to $340 million from just $32 million in Q1.

Moreover, Barrick maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, and its share buyback program recommenced, reflecting management's confidence in the company’s future performance. With cash reserves of $4.04 billion and a debt-to-cash ratio of just 0.1x, Barrick is well-positioned to weather any financial storms.

The company's focus on cost discipline is another key differentiator. While the all-in sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce of gold rose to $1,498 in Q2 2024, Barrick has managed to keep costs relatively flat compared to the broader industry amid inflationary pressures. This level of cost control ensures that the company remains profitable even if gold prices were to pull back.

Why Barrick Gold Could Shine in Your Portfolio

For investors seeking a hedge against ongoing global uncertainty, Barrick Gold presents a compelling option. The company’s combination of robust production, strong financial health, and commitment to returning value to shareholders makes it a standout in the gold mining sector.

Adding Barrick Gold to a portfolio offers dual benefits. First, it provides exposure to gold, a historically reliable asset during periods of inflation and market instability. Second, owning shares in a leading mining company like Barrick, which is focused on expanding its high-quality asset base, provides a growth component that physical gold investments lack.

As geopolitical tensions persist and inflation concerns linger, investors may continue to flock to gold, boosting the prospects of companies like Barrick. Given the current economic climate, adding Barrick Gold stock to your portfolio could be a prudent move to hedge against market instability and protect wealth.

PayPal (PYPL) Struggles to Rebound Means Opportunity for 3 Stocks

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Leading fintech company PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) has underperformed the market, with its stock declining more than 30% over the past year. Investor interest in the digital payments company has declined due to rising competition and innovative disruptions brought by its peers.

The pandemic was a good period for fintech companies like PYPL. The fintech companies commanded high valuations as investors’ interest in the sector rose with accelerated digital technology adoption. Fintech companies played a vital role in supporting businesses and consumers during the crisis.

However, the high-interest rate environment and growing competition within the fintech sector have hit PYPL’s fortunes lately. Competition from the likes of tech giant Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has entered the sector with financial services such as the savings account from Goldman Sachs, which offers a 4.15% APY, Buy Now Pay Later Service, contactless payments through Tap to Pay on iPhone, Apple Card, and Apple Pay have affected PYPL’s market share.

Earlier this year, PYPL announced that it would lay off 2,000 people, or 7% of its workforce, to reduce costs and focus its resources on core strategic priorities. Although PYPL surpassed the consensus revenue estimate in the second quarter, it failed to top analysts’ earnings estimates.

Its EPS was 0.3% below the consensus estimate, while its revenue beat analyst estimates by 0.2% in the second quarter. Its net revenues for the second quarter ended June 30, 2023, rose 7% year-over-year to $7.30 billion. Its non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.16, representing an increase of 24% year-over-year. Also, its total payment volume increased 11% year-over-year to $376.50 billion.

However, PYPL ended the second quarter with 431 million users on its platform, declining 2 million sequentially and 4 million year-over-year. This was the second consecutive quarterly decline in its users. The decline in users is alarming as it affects PYPL’s revenue and earnings. For the third quarter, PYPL forecasted its revenues to grow approximately 8% to reach $7.40 billion.

Also, its non-GAAP EPS is expected to grow between 13% and 14% to $1.22 and $1.24. For fiscal 2023, the company expects non-GAAP EPS to grow approximately 20% year-over-year to $4.95.

SVB MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis downgraded PYPL to ‘market perform.’ Ellis said, “Looking forward, unfortunately, we expect PayPal’s gross profit growth to remain lackluster, in the low-to mid-single digits. We see the potential for further downside to our estimates, particularly given the strong momentum of Apple Pay, which we worry will begin to benefit from the powerful network effects in payments.”

Alex Chriss is expected to take over as the company’s new CEO from September 27. The change in leadership comes during a challenging period for the company. Although the appointment holds promise, whether the new CEO can turn PYPL’s fortunes around has to be seen.

Although the global digital payments and financial services ecosystem remains well-positioned to register strong long-term growth, PYPL faces several headwinds. Amid PYPL’s current challenges, fundamentally stable financial services stocks Visa Inc. (V), Mastercard Incorporated (MA), and American Express Company (AXP) might benefit.

Let’s discuss these stocks in detail.

Visa Inc. (V)

V is a global payments technology company that enables digital payments between customers, merchants, financial institutions, enterprises, strategic partners, and government agencies. It also administers VisaNet, a transaction processing network that allows for the authorization, clearing, and settlement of payment transactions.

On June 28, 2023, V announced that it signed a definitive agreement to acquire Pismo, a cloud-native issuer processing and core banking platform with operations in Latin America, Asia Pacific, and Europe. V’s Chief Product and Strategy Officer Jack Forestell said, “Through the acquisition of Pismo, Visa can better serve our financial institution and fintech clients with more differentiated core banking and issuer solutions they can offer their customers.”

V’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 11.6% over the past three years. Its EBITDA grew at a CAGR of 12.1% over the past three years. In addition, its EPS grew at a CAGR of 14.4% in the same time frame.

V’s 51.94% trailing-12-month net income margin is 101.4% higher than the 25.78% industry average. Likewise, its 67.09% trailing-12-month EBIT margin is 238.7% higher than the 19.81% industry average. Furthermore, the stock’s 51.61% trailing-12-month levered FCF margin is 252.3% higher than the 14.65% industry average.

V’s net revenues for the third quarter ended June 30, 2023, increased 12% year-over-year to $8.12 billion. Its non-GAAP net income rose 7% year-over-year to $4.50 billion. The company’s operating income increased 21.1% over the prior-year quarter to $5.02 billion. Its non-GAAP EPS came in at $2.16, representing an increase of 9.1% year-over-year.

Analysts expect V’s EPS and revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2023, to increase 16.3% and 9.9% year-over-year to $2.24 and $8.56 billion, respectively. It surpassed Street EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

Mastercard Incorporated (MA)

MA is a technology company that provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorization, clearing, and settlement, as well as delivers other payment-related products and services. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, and businesses.

On May 26, 2023, MA and UniCredit announced the expansion of their payment partnership. The multi-year partnership will provide the necessary resources to achieve the shared ambition to increase the speed of innovation within the payments space and put customers at the center.

On April 5, 2023, MA announced that it was accelerating efforts to remove first-use PVC plastics from payment cards on its networks by 2028. This move reinforces the company’s sustainable efforts.

MA’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 13.3% over the past three years. Its levered FCF grew at a CAGR of 15.2% over the past three years. In addition, its net income grew at a CAGR of 11.8% in the same time frame.

MA’s 100% trailing-12-month gross profit margin is 67.9% higher than the 59.55% industry average. Likewise, its 57.14% trailing-12-month EBIT margin is 188.5% higher than the 19.81% industry average. Furthermore, the stock’s 0.63x trailing-12-month asset turnover ratio is 198.7% higher than the 0.21x industry average.

For the fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2023, MA’s net revenue increased 14% year-over-year to $6.27 billion. Its non-GAAP net income rose 9.8% over the prior-year quarter to $2.74 billion. Its non-GAAP operating margin came in at 58.6%, compared to a non-GAAP operating margin of 57.9% in the year-ago quarter. Also, its non-GAAP EPS came in at $2.89, representing an increase of 12.9% year-over-year.

For the quarter ending September 30, 2023, MA’s EPS and revenue are expected to increase 20% and 13.4% year-over-year to $3.22 and $6.53 billion, respectively. It surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

American Express Company (AXP)

AXP provides charge and credit payment card products and travel-related services. The company operates through three segments: Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Its products and services include payment and financing products; network services; accounts payable expense management products and services; and travel and lifestyle services.

AXP’s revenue grew at a CAGR of 15.7% over the past three years. Its EPS grew at a CAGR of 26.5% over the past three years. In addition, its net income grew at a CAGR of 22.3% in the same time frame.

AXP’s 3.19% trailing-12-month Capex/Sales is 59.3% higher than the 2.01% industry average. Likewise, its 29.34% trailing-12-month Return on Common Equity is 159.7% higher than the 11.30% industry average. Furthermore, the stock’s 0.24x trailing-12-month asset turnover ratio is 12.2% higher than the 0.21x industry average.

AXP’s total revenues net of interest expense for the second quarter ended June 30, 2023, increased 12.4% year-over-year to $15.05 billion. Its net interest income rose 31.6% over the prior-year quarter to $3.11 billion. The company’s net income increased 10.7% year-over-year to $2.17 billion. Also, its EPS came in at $2.89, representing an increase of 12.5% year-over-year.

Street expects AXP’s EPS and revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2023, to increase 19.7% and 13.6% year-over-year to $2.96 and $15.40 billion, respectively.