Build a Secure Portfolio with these 5 Stocks Amid 15-Year High Treasury Yield

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Last month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced the unanimous decision by the FOMC to raise key interest rates by another 25 bps. With this move, the central bank has raised the benchmark borrowing cost to 5.25%-5.50.

With a 2.6% rise in inflation, down from a 4.1% rise in Q1 and well below the estimate for a gain of 3.2%, and an annualized increase of 2.4% in the gross domestic product in the second quarter, topping the 2% estimate, the belief that Jerome Powell and his team at the Federal Reserve may be on the cusp of achieving the elusive “soft landing” was gaining strength in the market.

However, ECB raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point shortly after, citing persistent inflation. Moreover, the recently released minutes of the Fed’s July 25-26 policy meeting reveal broad expectations of ‘upside risks’ to inflation, leading to a fresh realization that rates could stay higher for longer, contrary to some initial forecasts and hopes of cuts starting in 2024.

In such a scenario, despite increased optimism, businesses are expected to remain weighed down by high borrowing costs, and economic activity is expected to remain stifled due to relatively scarce credit.

Moreover, with every increase in benchmark interest rates, a selloff of long-duration fixed-income instruments, such as the 10-year treasury notes, gets triggered, which causes a slump in their market value and a consequent increase in their yields. This also increases the benchmark 30-year mortgage rates, thereby depressing demand and deepening the crisis in which real estate has lately been finding itself.

Last week, as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.307% from 4.258%, settling at its highest closing level since 2007, and the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 12-year high, rising to 4.411%, there is still a significant probability that in order to overcompensate for the infamous “transitory” call that caused the Fed to arrive (really) late in its fight against demand-driven inflation, the central bank may be sowing the seeds of economic stagflation.

An increase in borrowing costs would not just raise the cost of servicing the $32.7 trillion national debt; significant markdowns and prices of legacy bonds could crush the loan portfolios of banks that could share the same fate as the Silicon Valley Bank and the First Republic Bank. In this context, S&P's move to downgrade multiple U.S. banks citing ‘tough’ operating conditions hardly comes as a surprise.

Speaking of banks, the Bank of Japan’s policy tweak loosened its yield curve control, sparking widespread shock in the markets. To compound the miseries further, after placing the country on negative watch amid the debt-ceiling standoff at Capitol Hill back in May, Fitch Ratings recently downgraded U.S. long-term rating to AA+ from AAA, citing the erosion of confidence in fiscal management.

With HSBC Asset Management’s warning that a U.S. recession is coming this year, with Europe to follow in 2024, gaining credibility with each passing day, being diligent investors confident enough to increase their stakes in fundamentally strong businesses could be a time-tested method to navigate potential turbulence ahead.

Here are a few stocks which could be worthy of consideration:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

JNJ has been around for 135 years and is a worldwide researcher, developer, manufacturer, and seller of various healthcare products. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Health; Pharmaceuticals; and MedTech.

Over the past three years, which have been turbulent, to say the least, JNJ’s revenue has grown at a 6.7% CAGR. During the same period, the company also registered EBITDA and total asset growth of 8.2% and 6.6%, respectively.

Despite flagging sales of Covid 19 Vaccines, JNJ’s reported sales during the fiscal year 2023 second quarter increased by 6.3% year-over-year to $25.53 billion. During the same period, the company’s adjusted net earnings increased by 6.5% and 8.1% year-over-year to $7.36 billion and $2.80 per share, respectively.

In addition to its robust financials, the relative immunity of its demand and margins to potential economic downturns make it an attractive investment option for solid risk-adjusted returns.

Merck & Company, Inc. (MRK)

MRK is a global healthcare company offering prescription medicines, vaccines, biological therapies, and animal health products. The company operates through Pharmaceuticals and Animal Health segments.

Over the past three years, MRK’s revenue has grown at a 9.9% CAGR, while its total assets have grown at a 4.9% CAGR.

On August 3, MRK announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved an expanded indication for ERVEBO, which is now indicated for the prevention of disease caused by Zaire ebolavirus in individuals 12 months of age and older. The vaccine was previously approved for use in individuals of age 18 years and older.

On July 25, MRK announced a quarterly dividend of $0.73 per share of the company’s common stock for the fourth quarter of 2023. Payment will be made on October 6, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 15, 2023.

MRK pays $2.92 annually as dividends. Its 4-year average dividend yield of 2.96% exceeds the industry average of 1.32%. The company has increased its dividend payouts over the past 12 years and at a 9.6% CAGR over the past five years.

During the second quarter of the fiscal year 2023, MRK’s revenue increased by 3% year-over-year to $15.04 billion. Excluding the $10.2 billion, or $4.02 per share, charge for the acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences, Inc. (Prometheus), the company’s non-GAAP net income increased by 5% and 4.8% year-over-year to $4.98 billion and $1.96 per share, respectively.

Analysts expect MRK’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal third quarter to increase by 1.7% and 4.9% year-over-year to $15.22 billion and $1.94, respectively. The company has further impressed by surpassing consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters.

The Coca-Cola Company (KO)

As a world-renowned beverage company, KO manufactures, markets, and sells various non-alcoholic beverages. The company operates through six segments: Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; Latin America; North America; Asia Pacific; Global Ventures; and Bottling Investments.

Over the last three years, which included a pandemic of all things, KO’s revenues have grown at an 8.7% CAGR, while its EBITDA has grown at 7.1% CAGR. The company’s net income has grown at a 4.6% CAGR during the same period.

On July 12, KO and its eight bottling partners from around the world announced the creation of a new $137.7 million venture capital fund focusing on sustainability investments. The fund would focus on key investments in packaging, decarbonization, and other initiatives with the potential to reduce KO’s system-wide carbon footprint.

During the fiscal 2023 second quarter, KO’s net revenue grew 6% year-over-year to $12 billion, while its organic (non-GAAP) revenue grew 11% year-over-year. During the same period, the company’s comparable (non-GAAP) EPS also grew 11% year-over-year to $0.78.

In concurrence with the company’s raised guidance, analysts expect KO’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year 2023 to increase by 4.6% and 6.4% year-over-year to $45.02 billion and $2.64, respectively. Both metrics are expected to keep growing over the next two fiscals to come in at $49.92 and $3.03, respectively.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)

PEP is a global manufacturer, marketer, distributor, and seller of beverages and convenience foods. The company operates through seven segments: Frito-Lay North America; Quaker Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; Latin America; Europe; Africa, Middle East, and South Asia; Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and China Region.

Over the last three years, PEP’s revenues have grown at a 10% CAGR, while its EBITDA has grown at 7.7% CAGR. The company’s net income has grown at 4.9% CAGR during the same period.

On July 20, PEP announced its quarterly dividend of $1.265 per share, which translates to an annual dividend of $5.06. This signifies a 10 percent increase year-over-year. This dividend is payable on September 29, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business on September 1, 2023.

This marks PEP’s 51st consecutive annual dividend increase at a rate of 7.1% CAGR over the past five years.

During the fiscal 2023 second quarter, PEP’s organic (non-GAAP) revenue increased by 13% year-over-year, while its core (non-GAAP) EPS of $2.09 translated to a 15% year-over-year growth.

For fiscal year 2023, PEP now expects to deliver 10% organic revenue growth (previously 8%) and 12% core constant currency EPS growth (previously 9%).

Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

As an energy company, DUK operates through two segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure (EU&I) and Gas Utilities and Infrastructure (GU&I).

Over the past three years, DUK’s revenue increased at a 6% CAGR, while its EBITDA has increased by 4.5% CAGR over the same time horizon.

On July 13, DUK announced its quarterly cash dividend of $1.025 per share of common stock, an increase of $0.02, and $359.375 per share on its Series A preferred stock, equivalent to $0.359375 per depositary share, payable on Sept.18, 2023.

DUK currently pays $4.10 per share of common stock as annual dividends, which have grown for the past 11 years and at 2.4% CAGR over the past five years. Through the consistent return of capital, DUK provides adequate income generation opportunities for investors to help them tide over economic uncertainty.

On August 15 and August 17, DUK filed a resource plan, and an updated Carbon Plan to serve the growing energy needs projected for South and North Carolina, respectively.

On July 6, DUK unveils Kentucky's largest utility-scale rooftop solar site, consisting of over 5,600 photovoltaic panels, at Amazon Air Hub. It will feed up to 2 megawatts of solar power directly onto the electric distribution grid.

For the six months of the fiscal that ended June 30, 2023, DUK’s total operating revenues and operating income increased by 2.1% and 12.4% year-over-year to $13.85 billion and $3.10 billion, respectively. As a result, the company’s net income and adjusted EPS for the period came in at $531 million or $2.10 per share, respectively.

An Analysis of NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Before Q2 Earnings Release

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Technology stocks have staged a massive recovery this year, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 27% year-to-date. Breakthroughs in AI, such as the advent of the large language model-based (LLM) chatbots, significantly drove the tech sector’s performance. The buzz around AI helped the Nasdaq jump 32% during the year's first half, registering its best first half since 1983.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), playing a crucial role in the AI revolution, rallied more than 196% this year. The Santa Clara, California-based chipmaker has seen considerable investor interest in its shares, as its graphic processing units (GPUs) provide the necessary processing power to Generative AI applications. This AI boom has catapulted NVDA’s market capitalization to over $1 trillion, making it the sixth company to achieve that landmark.

NVDA founder and CEO Jensen Huang earlier this year said, “AI is at an inflection point, setting up for broad adoption reaching into every industry. From startups to major enterprises, we are seeing accelerated interest in the versatility and capabilities of generative AI.”

In addition to being a leader in providing advanced AI chips required for generative AI, NVDA is witnessing rising demand for its chips in accelerated computing.

The company’s GPUs are used in supercomputers and data centers. Its GPUs are used as accelerators for central processing units (CPUs). Huang said, “The computer industry is going through two simultaneous transitions – accelerated computing and generative AI.”

“A trillion dollars of installed global data center infrastructure will transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing as companies race to apply generative AI into every product, service, and business process,” he added.

NVDA is boosting the production of its entire data center range of products like H100, Grace CPU, Grace Hopper Superchip, NVLink, Quantum 400 InfiniBand, and BlueField-3 DPU to meet the rising demand for AI technologies. According to Wedbush, artificial intelligence will be worth $800 billion to businesses over the next ten years.

During the first quarter, the company reported record data center revenue of $4.28 billion. For the second quarter of fiscal 2024, NVDA expects its revenue to be $11 billion, plus or minus 2%. The revenue forecast was more than 50% higher than Wall Street estimates of $7.15 billion. The company expects non-GAAP gross margins to be 70%, plus or minus 50 basis points.

Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore said, “We expect another stunning print & guide from NVDA, with demand for AI, compute still at ‘frenzied’ levels and expected to remain limited by supply for several quarters.” The analyst expects revenues of $11.05 billion and EPS of $2.05. He has a Hold rating on the stock with a $440 price target.

Forrester analyst Glenn O’Donnell said, “What Nvidia reports in its upcoming earnings release is going to be a barometer for the whole AI hype. I anticipate that the results are going to look really outstanding because demand is so high, and that means Nvidia is able to command even higher margins than it would otherwise.”

Street expects NVDA’s EPS and revenue for the second quarter ending July 31, 2023, to increase 309.1% and 65.8% year-over-year to $2.09 and $11.12 billion, respectively.

Here’s what could influence NVDA’s performance in the upcoming months:

Disappointing First-Quarter Results

NVDA’s revenue for the first quarter ended April 30, 2023, declined 13% year-over-year to $7.19 billion. Its non-GAAP operating income fell 23% year-over-year to $3.05 billion. The company’s non-GAAP net income declined 21% over the prior-year quarter to $2.71 billion. In addition, its non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.09, representing a decline of 20% year-over-year.

Favorable Analyst Estimates

Analysts expect NVDA’s EPS for fiscal 2024 and 2025 to increase 144.7% and 44.2% year-over-year to $8.17 and $11.78, respectively. Its fiscal 2024 and 2025 revenues are expected to increase 64.4% and 33.4% year-over-year to $44.33 billion and $59.16 billion, respectively.

Stretched Valuation

In terms of forward EV/EBITDA, NVDA’s 54.10x is 268.2% higher than the 14.70x industry average. Likewise, its 24.08x forward EV/S is 777.4% higher than the 2.74x industry average. Its 52.99x forward non-GAAP P/E is 131.4% higher than the 22.90x industry average.

High Profitability

In terms of the trailing-12-month net income margin, NVDA’s 18.52% is 821% higher than the 2.01% industry average. Likewise, its 23.53% trailing-12-month EBITDA margin is 162.8% higher than the industry average of 8.96%. Furthermore, the stock’s 6.65% trailing-12-month Capex/Sales is 174.3% higher than the industry average of 2.42%.

Bottom Line

NVDA remains well-positioned to capitalize on the multi-billion-dollar opportunity in artificial intelligence. Its graphic processing units (GPUs) are essential in powering generative AI tools. The company’s optimism over AI led to an impressive outlook for the second quarter.

Investors will be looking forward to the company’s second-quarter results on August 23, 2023. Despite the vast scope for NVDA, the stock has already rallied nearly 200% this year and is trading at an expensive valuation. Considering these factors, it could be wise to wait for a better entry point in the stock.

Clear Skies Ahead? Can US-China Flights Propel 3 Airliners for Takeoff?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

With the pandemic firmly in the rear-view mirror, consumers are ever keener to redeem their pile of airline miles on other travel rewards on their credit cards for new experiences through “revenge travel.” Revenge travel has its origins in “baofuxing xiaofei” or “revenge spending,” an economic trend that originated in 1980s China when a growing middle class had an insatiable appetite for foreign luxury goods.

Since e-commerce, albeit with a few hiccups in the supply chain, was able to satiate the appetite for goods through the pandemic, Americans are now going above and beyond to compensate for the years spent indoors trying to substitute real experiences with virtual ones.

The trend is expected to gain further momentum with the relaxation of restrictions on international travel that were put in place by China as part of its strict and controversial “Zero-Covid” policy. Consequently, air traffic between the U.S. and China is expected to double in volume by the end of October.

According to an order by the U.S. Transportation Department, each country will gain an additional six weekly round-trip flights as of September 1, up from the current 12, with the total number of flights for each nation planned to rise to 24 by October 29.

In this context, here are three U.S airlines that stand to benefit the most from the persistent tailwind:

On July 13, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) reported record revenues and earnings for the fiscal second quarter driven by strong demand for international travel, premium seals, and a 22% decline in fuel expenses. The Atlanta-based airline’s adjusted revenue and EPS came in at $14.61 billion and $2.68, compared to consensus estimates of $14.49 billion and $2.40, respectively.

Given that airlines conduct the bulk of their business in the second and third quarters, DAL hiked its 2023 earnings forecast to an adjusted $6 to $7 a share, up from its previous estimate at the high end of a $5 to $6 per share range.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) has also been on a purple patch which has seen the carrier posting record quarterly earnings and forecast a strong third quarter amid an unprecedented domestic and international travel boom.

The carrier’s total revenue came in at $14.18 billion, compared to consensus estimates of $13.91 billion. Its net income came in at $1.08 billion, which resulted in an adjusted EPS of $5.03 for the quarter that surpassed Street expectations of $4.03.

International flights made up 40% of the revenue, but the segment is growing faster than domestic ones amid the overdue relaxation of strict Covid restrictions overseas. 

Despite ten consecutive interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, it isn’t difficult to connect the dots and understand why American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) has had to turn to bigger airplanes, even on shorter routes, and jumbo-jets, such as the Boeing 747 and the Airbus A380, are being brought back to help ease airport congestion and work around pilot shortages.

As a result of this tailwind, AAL’s revenue for the fiscal second quarter topped analyst estimates to come in at a record $14.06 billion, up 4.7% year-over-year. With the airline’s executives bullish on travel demand, particularly for international trips, the operator has raised its earnings outlook for the fiscal year 2023.

Dark Clouds Around the Silver Lining

“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” The obviousness of this observation made by Herb Stein was what made it famous.

Amid widespread convictions that pent-up demand for travel will be a multi-year demand set, it is easy to get carried away by the “pent-up demand” and “revenge travel” narrative.

However, the rise of remote work and virtual teams, facilitated by contemporary collaboration and productivity tools, seems to have become an immune and immutable remnant of the cultural sea-change our work and lives had to adopt and adapt to during the pandemic, new reports give us reasons to doubt whether business travel is ever going back to normal.

In such a situation, with traveling for leisure being an occasional indulgence in most of our lives, there are risks that the pent-up demand might not be enough to sustain the momentum that is propelling the growth performance of DAL and other airlines, which are primarily in the business of ferrying passengers.

Moreover, with ticket prices at all-time highs and the stash of pandemic stimulus cash, fueling the leisure travel boom expected to run out over this quarter, it is unsurprising to find tricks and trends, such as ‘skip-lagging’ and consumers trading down on travel being on the rise.

Across the Pacific, with the Chinese economy currently battling triple threats of deflation, chronically high youth unemployment, and an ever-intensifying real-estate debt crisis, it could be unrealistic to expect any appreciable recovery in overseas travel demand among the aging, shrinking, and deurbanizing Chinese population that’s holding on to its savings for dear life amid macro-economic uncertainties that could bring about a lost decade.

Moreover, geopolitical relations between the U.S. and China have been souring because of differences regarding the latter’s territorial claims. The trade war between the two superpowers is intensifying amid restrictions on exports of semiconductor chips and investments in other cutting-edge technology by the former, and the latter upping the ante won’t help matters either as far as civil aviation between the two countries is concerned.

Bottomline

While U.S. air carriers and their Chinese peers would want nothing more than for passenger demand to stay strong and, perhaps, keep growing, the most likely case would be a return to seasonality and cyclicality, as is typical of the airline industry.

However, the possibility of passenger demand falling off a cliff and investors rushing for the exits only to find that the clock struck midnight and the chariot turned back to a pumpkin can’t be completely ruled out.

Either way, every flight that takes off has to land at some point. However, amid widespread tail risks, investors, both current and prospective, would be wise to fasten their seatbelts because the skies ahead are anything but clear.

Insight Into Warren Buffett's Strategy: Unveiling His 40 Million General Motors (GM) Shares and the Investment Implications

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK), led by fabled investor Warren Buffett, also fondly known as The Oracle of Omaha, owns 22 million General Motors Company (GM) shares, equating to a 1.6% stake in the legacy U.S. automaker.

A fundamentally robust company such as GM deserves its spot in a conglomerate's portfolio with a reputation for acquiring parts or the entirety of businesses that possess enduring competitive advantages and are likely to be aided by favorable economics in the long run.

On the back of a strong performance in the fiscal 2023 second quarter, the Detroit-headquartered auto giant has raised its guidance for 2023. The company raised its net income expectations for the fiscal from a high end of $9.9 billion to a high end of $10.7 billion. Its automotive division’s free cash flow is also expected to come between $7 billion and $9 billion, up from $5.5 billion to $7.5 billion.

In addition, GM said it is increasing cost-cutting measures through next year and now plans to cut $3 billion in expenditures compared with previous guidance of $2 billion. The financial outperformance driven by the booming traditional automotive business powered by highly profitable trucks and SUVs has enabled the company to ramp up its presence in the electric vehicle (EV) segment.

Consequently, GM reiterated that it would double EV production in the year's second half to 100,000 units. In addition to the long-awaited introduction of an electric Chevrolet Silverado pickup truck and EV versions of Chevy’s Equinox crossover and Blazer compact sport-utility vehicle, the company says it will reach 400,000 cumulative units of EV production by early 2024.

GM also anticipates that its EV business will reach profitability by 2025, with an EV production capacity of 1 million units in North America and EV revenue of roughly $50 billion.

In addition, the company is making itself future-ready by fixing supply-chain issues with measures such as a $60 million investment round in Mitra Chem, a California startup working on cheaper EV batteries. Mitra Chem aims to develop low-cost lithium iron phosphate batteries that can hold more power than current versions. If it’s successful, its batteries could appear in GM’s EVs later this decade.

GM is also developing its Ultium EV platform, which will help reduce costs and improve profitability. In addition, GM is diversifying to more potentially lucrative businesses such as Cruise, its driverless cab service, and BrightDrop, which is focused on helping businesses meet consumer demand for last-mile services.

All the above factors make GM an apparently solid bet in the automotive sector and a far cry from cash-strapped and debt-burdened EV upstarts that are struggling to keep themselves afloat amid increased borrowing cost due to sustained interest-rate hikes and EV price war that has been waged by Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).

The Flip Side

When asked about when to sell stocks, Buffett famously replied, “To break off relationships with people that I like and people that have joined me because they think it’s a permanent home, to do that simply because somebody waves a big check at me would be like selling one of my children.”

So when the legend, whose favorite holding period is forever, decides to cut his stake in GM, a business his company has owned since 2012, by almost half, it can only mean that either BRK is chronically short of funds and has been finding numerous opportunities to put them to better use or the economic characteristics of the business change in a big way.

Since BRK is sitting on a mountain of cash worth at least $147 billion, we can definitely count out the former possibility. As far as the latter is concerned, carmakers in the U.S. and Europe are once again under siege.

However, this time around, the war is on climate change, the goal is rapid decarbonization and energy transition, the battleground is smart, connected, and electric mobility solutions, and the invaders are from the other side of the Pacific, beyond the Sea of Japan.

Recently, after BYD Company Limited (BYDDY) delivered its five millionth electric vehicle, its founder Wang Chuanfu declared the “time has come for Chinese brands.” And he has good reason to be optimistic. Chinese automakers have access to its vast domestic market, abundant supplies of resources, such as rare earths, which are critical for energy transition, and a government keen on seeing its domestic brands compete globally.

China’s dominance in rare earth and other clean energy metals is back in the limelight after the recent export restriction on germanium and gallium. With the trade war between the U.S. and China intensifying amid restrictions on exports of semiconductor chips and investments in other cutting-edge technology by the former, the latter is expected to keep upping the ante.

This could hurt the prospects of Western car manufacturers as they might be compelled to deal with increased input costs on top of exchange-rate headwinds and credit crunch due to the Federal Reserve ratcheting up the benchmark borrowing cost to 5.25%-5.50% from nearly 0% in the space of 16 months. 

While carbon border tax and other protective measures could provide temporary shelter for besieged Western automakers, the beneficiaries stand to lose more if the Chinese government cuts off their access to the massive domestic market on which the Chinese automakers could always fall back upon encountering turbulence overseas.

Moreover, with Vietnamese EV-maker VinFast Auto Ltd. (VFS) surpassing the market capitalization of heavyweights, such as Ford Motor Company (F) and GM, in the words of VW chief Thomas Schaefer, “The roof is on fire,” and according to former Aston Martin chief executive Andy Palmer, manufacturers in Europe and the US face a “real and present danger” from the East.

Bottomline

GM, first added by BRK in 2012, now constitutes merely 0.2% of the conglomerate’s portfolio of marketable securities, which in turn is just a component of its holdings, which are comprised mainly of wholly owned businesses.

Therefore, instead of being denominator blind and jumping on the Buffett bandwagon, it could be wise for investors to hold their horses and verify if Western automakers can hold their own against Oriental challengers before making an investment decision.

Are Stock Investors Losing that Loving Feeling?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

SPY – The big early 2023 bull rally for the S&P 500 (SPY) is now officially over. What comes next? How best to trade this more difficult environment? And what are the best picks for the months ahead? Steve Reitmeister answers those questions and more as you read on below…

 

Yes, a nearly 20% rally to start 2023 is a lot more fun for investors than the current pullback. Unfortunately, those kind of rallies are never built to last.

Now may not be as much fun…but it is more realistic.

So let’s focus on the current realities, and what happens next for the stock market in this week’s Reitmeister Total Return commentary…

Market Commentary

After a long bull run we are enduring a classic pullback to digest previous gains. My belief is that we will emerge into a new trading range where we will hang out for a while before the next leg higher.

Moving Averages: 50 Day (yellow), 100 Day (orange), 200 Day (red)

4,600 for the S&P 500 (SPY) appears to be the top end of the range. Now we are trying to find the bottom.

As you can see Tuesday was the first test of the 50 day moving average since late May where we closed about 10 points below. Quite possible that support is found shortly and stocks bounce higher…but what if that is not the case?

I suspect that 4,400 could be ample area of support just 1% below the Tuesday close. That gives stocks a comfy 5% trading range to play in as we await the next catalyst.

Unfortunately, anything is possible and we could keep cutting lower to really clear out some of the complacency that comes with extended bull rallies. Yet, I don’t think that a test of the 200 day at 4,122 is in the cards. We would need some seriously negative events to emerge, like increased recession risk, to give that idea credence.

I suspect that 4,400 is likely as low as we need to go on this pullback. But if worse comes to worst, maybe a more serious washout down to the 100 day moving average at 4,284 is in the offing. That would not be so terrible given that the year started just a notch above 3,800.

Trading ranges are a time when investors have not fully made up their mind on what to do next. This makes stock prices very susceptible to the future crop of headlines.

Meaning that more positive/bullish events will have stocks bolting higher. Whereas more negative/bearish events will have the reverse effect, pushing stocks further lower.

This makes it important for us to review the upcoming events calendar to see what could be the next big move catalyst:

First, a backdrop that the last GDP reading was +2.4% for Q2. And the current Atlanta GDP Now estimate stands at +5.0% for the Q3. There is no way it will end up that high. Yet it does explain why the long term outlook is primarily bullish.

Point being that right now the view of the economy is positive. Thus, these upcoming announcements could either further bolster that notion…or call that rosy outlook into question.

8/16 FOMC Minutes: The Fed did finally start their “dovish tilt” at the late July meeting. Now investors will pour through the minutes for more clues of the likelihood of future rate hikes. Right now investors are betting on much greater likelihood they are done raising rates. The key question being when they start lowering rates. That event will be a bright green light for stock investors.

8/23 PMI Flash: This report rarely makes headlines, but is a strong leading indicator of the trends found in the next round of ISM Manufacturing & Services reports the first week of the new month. Thus, always beneficial to review this announcement to appreciate if odds of recession are going higher or lower.

9/1 Government Employment Situation: This continues to ebb lower as the Fed rate hikes slow down the economy. But gladly has not tipped over into negative territory that would raise the unemployment rate…and risk of recession. Right now the forecast calls for 180,000 jobs added which would be a very “Goldilocks” outcome where the unemployment rate would stay low. On the other hand, not so many jobs created as to heat up wage inflation that would concern the Fed.

9/1 ISM Manufacturing: This has been the weakest part of the economic picture with 9 straight readings in contraction territory (below 50). Right now, it seems that June may be the worst of these readings with July a notch higher…and the August reading on 9/1 expected to be another step in the right direction.

9/6 ISM Services: This is the larger, and healthier part of the economy leading to the positive GDP readings. It is currently expected to be somewhat in line with last month’s 52.7 reading, which is modestly in expansion territory. However, Tuesday’s impressive Retail Sales report may have estimates for this report moving higher in the days ahead.

9/13 Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation reports are the most telling of what the Fed will do with future rate hike decisions. Gladly this key inflation report has been moderating faster than expected for quite some time. Thus, that positive trend staying in place will be key to reignite bullish sentiment.

Trading Plan

As shared above, I think we are enduring a long overdue pullback to take the ripe early 2023 profits off the table. The main question is how low we need to go to find the bottom?

From the outset I had my eyes set on 4,400 as a logical bottom…but who says the stock market is logical?

The point is that I am using this pullback to stock up on the best trades for the eventual rise back to the top of the range…and likely flirting with the all time highs of 4,818 by the time we close the books on 2023.

One always feels foolish buying stocks early in a pullback as these new trades will just show red arrows for a while. But since this pullback is only temporary before the next leg higher…and perfect timing is nearly impossible…then it’s better to be too early, than too late.

Meaning that now is as good of a time as any to load up on the best stocks. Which are those? That is what the next section will discuss…

What To Do Next?

Discover my current portfolio of 6 stocks packed to the brim with the outperforming benefits found in our POWR Ratings model.

Plus I have added 4 ETFs that are all in sectors well positioned to outpace the market in the weeks and months ahead.

This is all based on my 43 years of investing experience seeing bull markets…bear markets…and everything between.

If you are curious to learn more, and want to see these 10 hand selected trades, then please click the link below to get started now.

Steve Reitmeister’s Trading Plan & Top Picks >

Wishing you a world of investment success!

SPY shares rose $0.03 (+0.01%) in after-hours trading Tuesday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 16.68%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

About the Author

Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as “Reity”. Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio. Learn more about Reity’s background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.