Copper Update: Compressed Spring Could Snap Back Hard

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

I’ve had a bearish outlook for copper for the past 2 years, starting with my post back in September 2017 when I had doubted the metal’s ability to sustain a long-term rally. Last July, we got the final confirmation of the trend reversal to the downside. And this past February I shared with you a promising trading opportunity, which had appeared in the copper market as the short-term upward correction invited the bears to sell the copper again around $3.

Indeed, copper has plummeted since then reaching the $2.48 low at the start of this month, but the following rapid bounce into the $2.70 area signaled a possible reversal ahead.

Let’s check the charts below to see if we can find some clues behind this worrisome price action.

I start with the weekly chart as I spotted a bullish pattern there already.

Weekly Cooper Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

As I said above the price printed the low of $2.48 and quickly reversed then. I added the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% to the chart, and you can see now that the price bounced right off it. In my February post, I applied AB/CD segments to set the target area for an anticipated drop and even used the extension ratio, where the CD is even larger than the AB segment. Continue reading "Copper Update: Compressed Spring Could Snap Back Hard" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by Mike Seery

Palladium Futures

Palladium futures in the December contract is currently trading at 1,629 after settling last Friday at 1,600 continuing its bullish momentum hitting an all-time high once again as strong demand continues to fuel prices higher.

I was looking at a bullish position a couple of days back but was not executed as I am currently sitting on the sidelines, however, if you are long a futures contract I would stay long as I think higher prices are ahead and if you've been following any of my previous blogs you understand I think prices could hit the 2,000 level. Palladium is trading far above its 20 and 100-day moving average as this is the strongest precious metal as I do not have any recommendations out of this sector at the current time.

If you are long a futures contract I would continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 1,518 as an exit strategy, however, the chart structure will improve next weeks trade therefore the monetary risk will be lowered as I see no reason to be short as that would be counter-trend trading which is very dangerous over the course of time.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Semiconductor Sector; A Market & Economic Leader

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The signals have persisted since the May lows in the Semiconductor sector and in the broad markets. Nominal Semiconductor (esp. Semi Equipment) stocks and the sector’s market leadership have remained intact into our window for a projected cycle bottom, which was the 2nd half of 2019.

This post shines a favorable light on the Semiconductor sector while at the same time acknowledging that may have little to do with the broad market’s fortunes as Q3’s reporting begins next month. In other words, while we have been projecting new highs for the S&P 500 on the very short-term, there are fundamental and technical reasons to believe the stock market could be significantly disturbed in Q4. But the Semi sector is an economic early bird. Let’s remember that.

Reference first…

Nearly $50 Billion in Fabs to Start Construction in 2020

By the end of the year, 15 new fab projects with a total investment of US$38 billion will have started construction and 18 more fab projects will kick off construction in 2020. Of the 18, 10 fab projects with a total investment value of more than US$35 billion carry a high probability. The other eight, with a total investment value of more than US$14 billion, are weighted with a low probability of materializing.

See also… Continue reading "Semiconductor Sector; A Market & Economic Leader" →

China Cancels Visit Causing Markets To Fall

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks fell to their lows of the day when news that Chinese trade officials canceled a visit to U.S. farms in Montana. Deputy trade negotiators from the U.S. and China resumed face-to-face talks for the first time in almost two months. The deputy-level trade talks are expected to help lay the groundwork for high-level negotiations early next month. This briefly lifted investor sentiment around trade talks.

Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of one another's goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.

The Dow traded 130 points lower, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1%. For the week the major indexes will post their first weekly loss in over three weeks. The S&P 500 will lose -.30%, the DOW has the most significant losses with a loss of -.66%, and the NASDAQ brings up the rear with a weekly loss of -.49%. The Dow came into Friday's session 1.1% removed from its all-time high while the S&P 500 was 0.7% below its record mark from late July. The Nasdaq remained 1.9% away from its record.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "China Cancels Visit Causing Markets To Fall" →

Your Option Contract Was Assigned - Now What?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Options trading can serve as a powerful means to generate consistent income and mitigate portfolio risk while producing high probability win rates. Options trading allows one to profit without predicting which way the stock will move. Options aren’t about whether or not the stock will move up or down; it’s about the probability of the stock not moving up or down more than a specified amount. Options allow your portfolio to generate smooth and consistent income month after month without predicting which way the stock market will move. Options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go. Running an option-based portfolio offers a superior risk profile relative to a stock-based portfolio while providing a statistical edge to optimize favorable trade outcomes. Options are a long-term game that requires discipline, patience, time, maximizing the number of trade occurrences and continuing to trade through all market conditions.

Put simply; an options-based approach provides a margin of safety with a decreased risk profile while providing high-probability win rates. Despite this favorable trading backdrop, occasionally options can be assigned and move against you despite managing the risk profile. How do you manage these unrealized losses and navigate these assignments to mitigate downside risk and ultimately sell your assignment at a net gain? This is the scary side of options that is rarely talked about, here I’ll demonstrate the actions I take to manage these assignments.

Assignment

Even though options trading provides a statistical advantage and generates high probability win rates, being assigned shares inevitably occurs. Briefly, when selling a put option, you agree to buy shares at an agreed-upon price (strike price) by an agreed-upon date (expiration) in exchange for premium income.

You collect premium income to compensate you for agreeing to buy shares at the agreed price by the agreed-upon date. As the contract lifecycle unfolds and the stock does not break below the strike price, profits can be realized early by buying-to-close or letting the contract expire to capture the entire premium. When the stock breaks down and trades below the agreed-upon price at expiration of the contract, the stock will be assigned. Continue reading "Your Option Contract Was Assigned - Now What?" →