Silver/Gold Ratios Is A Guide As Inflation Signals Fade Again

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The interplay between gold and silver is a critical component to understanding what is out ahead; to understanding whether long-term Treasury yields will rise and if they rise, whether it will be due to inflationary pressures. It is a critical component to understanding whether cyclical commodities and other aspects of a greater inflation/reflation trade will finally break existing downtrends. See…

The Continuum is Still in the Deflation Camp (9.24.19)

Pictures of a Reflationary Bounce-a-Thon (9.11.19)

The first and more recent post noted that the 30yr yield needs to climb above 2.2% to even think of hinting toward a temporary inflation trade. The chart from that post shows that while the Continuum is of a long, deflationary structure the periodic pings upward to the (monthly EMA 100) limiter often represent times of cyclical inflationary bursts. This morning the 30-year yield stands at 2.15%.

long-term treasury yields

As for the older post linked above, it was personally a little difficult not to buy in (other than for a couple of ‘bounce’ trades) to the prospect of the global inflation that Central Banks are trying to summon. But that post and others have routinely shown intact downtrends in the inflatables. So it was a case of ‘break the trends and we’ll talk inflation trade’. Here are the daily charts of the CRB index and a key headline commodity. Continue reading "Silver/Gold Ratios Is A Guide As Inflation Signals Fade Again" →

Time To Sell Chinese Investments

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The stock market reversed course Friday afternoon erasing earlier gains after reports that the White House is considering limits on U.S. investment in China, aggravating the long-standing trade dispute between the globe's two largest economies.

Trump administration officials are discussing ways to limit U.S. investors' portfolio flows into China. One of those options includes limiting all U.S. investment in China.

The DOW turned flat, erasing a gain of about 130 points after the report. The S&P 500 also reversed all of its gains to trade down -0.5% amid losses in communications services, utilities, and technology. The Nasdaq is being hit the hardest dropping -1.1%.

Shares of Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and other Chinese companies, in particular, plunged on the latest U.S.-China headlines, with BABA falling -6%. Those shares all trade on Nasdaq which will now post a weekly loss of over -2% joining the other major indexes with weekly losses. The DOW will lose -.3, and the S&P 500 will lose -.9% on the week.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Time To Sell Chinese Investments" →

What Should Traders Expect From Impeachment Proceedings?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

News of the formal impeachment proceedings came just after the markets closed on September 24, 2019. The markets had already broken a bit lower most of the day after Consumer Confidence and Jobs expectations were weaker than expected. We had just authored a public research post about our belief that the Technology sector was about to breakdown and begin to move lower. Additionally, we pushed out a post about how Silver would become the “Super-Hero” of 2019/2020 based on our expectations of further gains.

We believe the new impeachment proceedings will result in a market that is very similar to what happened when the US invaded Kuwait in August 1990. At that time, the US launched a very fast invasion of Kuwait that prompted a massive news event and resulted in hours of new invasion video that drew millions of Americans into watching the news every night. This invasion was almost like an extended Super Bowl or an extended World Series event where millions of people are actively engaged in this event, stop engaging in the local economy and focus their attentions on the news cycle, content and political circus originating in DC. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free-market trend signals newsletter

What Does This Mean For Traders

For traders, it means we have to be prepared for just about anything. It means the news events will become even bigger drivers of market rotation and trends as well as the fact that we must prepare for weaker economic data over the next 13+ months. The impeachment process is going to be a dramatic distraction for many people and business ventures. Many will simply fall into a “protectionist” mode where new expenses, expansion and other facets of life/business will be put on hold until after November 2020 (or later).

Our research team believes the initiation of these impeachment proceedings will act as a process of muting or weakening the US economy over time. Starting out slowly at first, then gaining strength as the news cycle picks up more and more “dirt” while both sides posture and position for advantage into the November 2020 election cycle. The end result will be a decidedly weaker US economy as a result of this new impeachment process and we believe the final outcome could leave some career politicians bloodied and battle-weary. Continue reading "What Should Traders Expect From Impeachment Proceedings?" →

China Deal Trumps Impeachment Inquiry

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks rose Wednesday after President Trump announced that a U.S.-China trade deal could arrive sooner than expected. However, gains were kept in check as Wall Street assessed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's announcement that she would launch a formal impeachment inquiry on Trump.

The Dow traded 180 points higher, the S&P 500 was up 0.2%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.30%, and the Dollar rose +.55% back above $99.

Keep an eye on the 50-day moving average for the three major indexes as the NASDAQ has broken below the MA, and the S&P 500 looks to be testing it, sitting just above its 50-day MA.

U.S. crude oil futures shed as much as -2.7% to $55.73 a barrel amid worries about weak demand and excess supply. Oil has since backed off that low but is still trading right around $56 a barrel.

Bitcoin has headed lower losing -3.2% on the day backing up the -11.4% loss on Tuesday, it's third-biggest daily loss of the year, testing its 200-day MA.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

Continue reading "China Deal Trumps Impeachment Inquiry" →

Options: You Choose Whether You Win 70%, 80% or 90% Of Your Trades

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Previously, I wrote an article putting forth the efficient market hypothesis termed “There's No Edge In Stock Picking” and how less than 10% of fund managers outperform their benchmark over the long-term. These bleak performance metrics and the fact that there’s only a 36% chance that you pick a stock that outperforms the index is what makes options trading so effective.

Whether you want to win 70%, 80% or even 90% or your trades, you dictate your probability of success when it comes to options trading over the long-term. If you set your probability of success at ~85% and make trades at that probability level through all market conditions over the long-term on the scale of hundreds of trades, you’ll end up winning ~85% of your option trades. Options trading allows one to profit without predicting which way the stock will move. Options aren’t about whether or not the stock will move up or down; it’s about the probability of the stock not moving up or down more than a specified amount. Put simply; options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go.

Options trading can generate consistent income and mitigate portfolio risk while producing high probability win rates. Options allow your portfolio to generate smooth and consistent income month after month without predicting which way the stock market will move. Running an option-based portfolio offers a superior risk profile relative to a stock-based portfolio while providing a statistical edge to optimize favorable trade outcomes. Options are a long-term game that requires discipline, patience, time, maximizing the number of trade occurrences and continuing to trade through all market conditions. An options-based approach provides a margin of safety with a decreased risk profile while providing high-probability win rates that are determined by the trader himself.

Empirically, over the previous 12 months, I’ve produced a return of 8.6% relative the S&P return of 3.2% while winning 85% of my trades via leveraging ~70 different ticker symbols. Continue reading "Options: You Choose Whether You Win 70%, 80% or 90% Of Your Trades" →