Tech Earnings On Tap - Priced For Perfection?

Tech stocks continue to appreciate regardless of any ebb and flow in the COVID-19 backdrop or the prospect of rising interest rates. Albeit there was a minor sell-off in late February as a function of rising interest rates that has been quickly erased. Tech underpins the stay-at-home economy and the so-called back-to-normal economy. And now more than ever, technology serves as an integral part of every slice of the economy. These stocks have remained strong despite the massive rotation into value stocks throughout 2021. Considering many of these names have appreciated since their February lows and breaking through their 52-week highs, these large-cap tech companies are priced for perfection heading into earnings. Stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and the broader index Powershares (QQQ) have appreciated double digits over a two-week period as we head into earnings.

The Value Rotation and Roaring Tech

The market has witnessed a massive sea change as the large-scale vaccination efforts in the US is coming to fruition. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have rallied to all-time highs while recovery and value names have recaptured more of their lost market capitalization due to COVID-19. Meanwhile, many technology stocks that powered the market higher in the initial stages of this post-COVID-19 rally have stalled out early in 2021 to now rip higher as well. Once the value rotation began, many high-quality technology names fell from their highs and have traded sideways since their highs back in September. Now tech participation has been a major driver to propel the markets even higher and to even more lofty levels. Continue reading "Tech Earnings On Tap - Priced For Perfection?"

Be Careful What You Wish For

Remember when over the past four years, we were warned repeatedly about the dangers of “politicizing” the Federal Reserve? Well, apparently, that had nothing to do with politics per se, just which side was doing the politicizing. Now that a different party is pushing the Fed in another direction, we don’t hear much about the dangers of politicizing the Fed anymore.

Indeed, an op-ed in the Financial Times goes one step further, arguing that the Fed – and central banks in general – should not only be above politics but allowed to dictate the rules for us mere mortals by executive fiat. And what issue is so important that it can’t be left to our elected representatives to decide what to do? Well, climate change, of course.

“We are facing a climate emergency that demands collective action, and central banks must undergo another transformation, perhaps an uncomfortable one, to play their part in dealing with it,” the author writes. “By reshaping their interventions in asset markets, they can accelerate reductions in carbon emissions and change the cost of capital to address hidden climate risks in the financial system.”

“The magnitude of the physical risks associated with climate change means central banks need to use their full suite of powers to help the transition towards a low-carbon world. And one of their tools is speed,” the writer continues. “Rather than waiting for governments to agree on legislation, investment programs or carbon taxes, central banks can act now to reflect better the cost of climate change in the cost of capital and to change the behavior of businesses, increasing it for emitters and lowering it for investment in carbon reduction (emphasis mine).”

In other words, who needs laws when the Fed can just order us around? Continue reading "Be Careful What You Wish For"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 4/25/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

After the market’s recent Fed-induced “melt-up,” S&P 500 (analyzed here using SPY) is processing a new short-term top as traders react to its absurdly overbought levels.

My short-term forecast is as seen in the daily chart here. The rally will likely find strong resistance and begin to either correct or form a range near highs. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Stock Market Rallies To End Volatile Week

The stock market rebounded Friday after what was a volatile week for the market. Why all the volatility? It came from multiple news reports Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich. That news sent stocks plummeting, with the DOW falling as much as 460 points before finally closing down 321 points on the day.

However, on Friday the DOW gained 227.59 points or +0.7%, to 34,043.49. The S&P 500 rose +1.1% to 4,180.17, while the NASDAQ climbed +1.4% to 14,016.81.

On a weekly level, the S&P 500 closed the volatile week with just a -0.1% loss, while the DOW and the NASDAQ fell -0.5% and -0.3% for the week, respectively.

The other big story for the week is Bitcoin's sudden sell-off; now, whether that was due to the news of the proposed capital tax increase or just profit-taking is up for debate, the cryptocurrency fell over -13% this week, hitting a new 3 week low of 47,555.00. However, the Trade Triangles got out of the trade issuing a new red weekly Trade Triangle at 54,677.51 early in the week, signaling a move to the sidelines.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Stock Market Rallies To End Volatile Week"

What The Blockchain And Cryptocurrency Mean To You

So, what does the blockchain and cryptocurrency really mean to you? Well, really everything.

Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency are fundamentally transforming our lives, unlike anything we’ve seen in a long time.

In fact, when you think about that transformation, you’ll put it up there with the other giant shifts in technology. I mean...

The printing press... antibiotics... railroads... steel... automobiles... windows... the internet.

Blockchain and cryptocurrency are next.

Right now, I can think of dozens or even hundreds of ways this transformation will impact you. But if I had to boil it down to two big ones, they would be... Continue reading "What The Blockchain And Cryptocurrency Mean To You"