Traders Toolbox: Learning Options Part 4 of 4

In real estate, they say that the three most important things are location, location, and location. In options, the three most important things are volatility, volatility, and volatility. Often neglected by option rookies, volatility is the cornerstone of an option professional's trading strategy.
In its simplest form, expressed as the annualized percentage of the standard deviation, volatility measures how far a contract can be expected to swing from a mean price. A contract trading at 50 would have a volatility of 10% if it traded between 45 and 55 over a given period of time.

Historical volatility is just that: the volatility calculated (using closing prices) over a given period – 20 days, 20 weeks, one year, etc. Implied volatility is the volatility using current market prices. For example, using four primary option pricing inputs – futures price, settlement price, time until expiration and volatility – would result in a theoretical price.
By plugging in the current option price in place of the theoretical price and working backward, it would be possible to determine the volatility the current market is implying. (It is not mathematically possible to work backward and solve for implied volatility using an equation like the Black-Scholes model, but an approximation can be derived.)

Options on quick-moving, highly volatility contracts will demand a higher premium because of the increased possibility of such options being in-the-money. For example, an out-of-the-money option on a slow, non-volatile contract will have a lower premium than a comparable option on a volatile contact because there is a greater chance the volatile contract will shirt in price enough to put the currently out-of-the-money option in-the-money.

Astute options traders look at volatility figures to evaluate the potential of a trade, buying or selling options when volatility is exceptionally high or low. If a market is trading at historically low volatility levels, options premiums could be expected to rise as market volatility increases, presenting a buy opportunity. The revers is true for high volatility situations.

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This discussion focuses on the strategies necessary to become a successful futures trader. It includes techniques for the development and evaluation of a suitable trading methodology for each person’s own trading style. Ted demonstrates how to use effective business management strategies in increasing profitability.

He shows traders how to further increase their bottom line through tax reduction. Ted explains in some detail how taxpayers can claim “trader” status that can offer them substantial financial benefits. Ted also reveals a system called the Great Full Spread for methodically grinding out a small but consistent profit using OEX option credit spreads. This strategy provides a highly accurate, limited-risk vehicle for trading the futures market. Ted also shows how to use the McClellan Oscillator to time the market for mutual fund switching as well as for use with NYFE contracts.

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Traders Toolbox: Learning Options Part 3 of 4

Two of the more common option strategies are horizontal spreads (identical strike prices, different expiration days) and vertical spreads (different strike prices, same expiration day). Other spread types are combinations or variations of these categories: Diagonal spreads are a mixture of horizontal and vertical spreads; butterfly spreads combine two different vertical spreads.

Selling a March 450 S&P call and buying a June 450 S&P call is an example of a horizontal spread, also known as a time, or calendar spread. The object is to profit from the quicker decay of time value of the nearby short option compared to the more distant long option. The trader is, in effect, selling time value. Most time decay occurs in the last three months, and especially the last month, of the contract. This strategy is generally most profitable with equity options than with future options.

If you sell the March option at 7.75 and buy the June option at 11.75, you establish the calendar spread at a 4.00 debit. (Debit spreads are spreads that the trader pays to establish, while in credit spreads the trader collects premium). The March contract then drops to 1.25, while the June option drops to only 10.50. You could then “lift” (offset) the spread, buying the March back at a 6.50 profit and selling the June for a 1.25 loss, for a total profit of 1.25 (5.25 minus the 4.00 paid to establish the spread).

In a vertical spread, the options share the same expiration date but have different strike prices. An example would be buying a March 445 S&P call at 6.50 and selling a March 455 S&P call at 3.00 with the futures at 450.00, for a 3.50 debit on the spread.
In the market rallies, the deeper in-the-money long option would gain more than the short option would lose. If the futures are unchanged at expiration, the 445 call will be worth 5.00 (its intrinsic value) and the 455 call will expire worthless, for a 1.50 profit on the trade. Once the futures price rises above the higher strike, against on the lower strike are offset by losses on the higher strike, so profit is limited. If the market falls, loss is limited to the amount paid for the spread.
Option spreads are characterized as bear or bull strategies depending on whether they will profit in up or down markets. The previous example is a bull call spread, because it would make more money in a rising market. A bear call spread would consist of selling the lower strike option and buying the higher strike option.
Bull and bear spreads also can be established using put options. For example, a bull put spread would consist of buying a December 445 S&P put and selling a December 445 put. Selling the 445 put and buying the 445 put would be a bear put spread. Generally, you should use calls for bull spreads and puts for bear spreads.
You can alter spreads by modifying the number of options, for instance establishing a vertical bull call spread with two short calls for every long call, also known as a ratio spread. Whether all or some of the options in a spread are in-, at- or out-of-the-money also will affect the risk/reward profile of a spread.
Other strategies focus on the magnitude of price movement rather than direction. Straddles and strangles are two strategies traders use to take advantage of volatility swings. A straddle consists of buying at-the-money puts and calls with the same strike price and expiration day, for example, buying a June 100 bond call and a June 100 bond put. The straddle buyer expects a futures price move large enough (in either direction) that they profit on the in-the-money option will be more than the cost of putting on the spread. If you thought the market would remain virtually unchanged, you could sell the straddle (at a credit) and reap the profits as time eroded its value.

A strangle consists of combining out-of-the-money call and puts. With June bonds at 102, a strangle buyer might purchase a June 104 call and a June 100 put, again expecting a sizable move in either direction. (An advantage to this strategy is it is cheaper than a straddle, but the market also has to move more to make it profitable.) For a trader who expects bond prices to stay between 100 and 104, however, selling this straddle offers an excellent opportunity to “sell volatility.” If the market does stay between these prices, the seller will keep his premium.
Traders should be away that because of higher commissions and increase slippage, a marginally profitable options trade can actually be a loser when all is said and done. Understanding volatility and time decay concepts will help identify strategies with the highest probability of success.

Part 4 Will Be Posted On November 17th, 2008. So come back soon!

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This is what I think will happen to the dollar, stocks and crude oil in the next two months.

A plan to save the world -- part two, or is it three?

When Paulson came out today and stated that his earlier plan to save the western world was not working, he offered up a plan "C" (or is it "D")  to relieve pressure on consumer credit, scrapping his earlier effort to buy the value mortgage assets.

No matter what happens or what the next plan is here, are the 3 reasons I believe stocks are headed lower.

* Number one: The trend in most all stocks is down. This trend is likely to persist and last longer than most people imagine.

* Number two: There is no plan. The government is floundering and does not have a plan that is going to work anytime soon.

* Number three:  We have a lame-duck president, and nothing is going to happen of any consequence until President-elect Obama is sworn in.

Okay, so let's look at the first problem. Most people trading the market today have had no experience in a prolonged bear market like the one we had in the '70s. That bear market was brutal as it did not let anyone out. Over the course of the early '70s, the bear market basically wore people out to the extent they eventually just threw in the towel. We believe the market is going to make another new low and take out the recent lows that were put in place in early October. Unlike a bull market that constantly needs positive news to drive it higher, a bear market just falls under its own weight.

NEW VIDEO: This is what I think will happen to the dollar, stocks and crude oil in the next two months.

The second problem we have is that there is no concrete plan in place to rescue the economy. In fact, the domestic and global economic issues are so great that they are overwhelming in scope. The Paulson plan, which is being changed and will continue to change, is a major concern and creates significant uncertainty in the marketplace. Only when we see the new regime take office this coming January will we see any meaningful changes.

The third problem we have is a lame-duck president. This is a major problem for the markets as President-elect Obama can not make any sweeping changes until he is sworn into office. Yes, he may hit the ground running, but the reality is, it's not for over two months from now and a lot can happen to the market in two months. The key levels that everyone is going to be watching for are the recent lows we saw in early October. If these lows are taken out, and I expect they will be, it's going to push this market and everything else down to new lows. It will exacerbate the housing situation, the unemployment situation and most of all, the morale of the country.

Having lived through the bear market of the '70s, I know firsthand how difficult the journey we face is going to be. Now this may seem like a very pessimistic outlook and in some ways it is, however there are always opportunities to make money in the marketplace. These opportunities may not be in stocks, it may be in forex or the commodity markets. Our goal on this blog and with the markets is to point you in the direction of where we believe those opportunities are.

So buckle your seatbelt. I think we are in for a bumpy ride.

Adam Hewison,
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub