Author: The INO.com Team

How Micron Technology Is Poised to Benefit from AI Investments

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues revolutionizing industries worldwide, including healthcare, retail, finance, automotive, manufacturing, and logistics, driving demand for advanced technology and infrastructure. Among the companies set to benefit significantly from this AI boom is Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), a prominent manufacturer of memory and storage solutions.

MU’s shares have surged more than 70% over the past six months and nearly 104% over the past year. Moreover, the stock is up approximately 12% over the past month.

This piece delves into the broader market dynamics of AI investments and how MU is strategically positioned to capitalize on these trends, offering insights into how investors might act now.

Broader Market Dynamics of AI Investments

According to Grand View Research, the AI market is expected to exceed $1.81 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 36.6% from 2024 to 2030. This robust market growth is propelled by the rapid adoption of advanced technologies in numerous industry verticals, increased generation of data, developments in machine learning and deep learning, the introduction of big data, and substantial investments from government and private enterprises.

AI has emerged as a pivotal force in the modern digital era. Tech giants such as Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) are heavily investing in research and development (R&D), thereby making AI more accessible for enterprise use cases.

Moreover, several companies have adopted AI technology to enhance customer experience and strengthen their presence in the AI industry 4.0.

Big Tech has spent billions of dollars in the AI revolution. So far, in 2024, Microsoft and Amazon have collectively allocated over $40 billion for investments in AI-related initiatives and data center projects worldwide.

DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria anticipates these companies will spend over $100 billion this year on AI infrastructure. According to Luria, spending will continue to rise in response to growing demand. Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives projects continued investment in AI infrastructure by leading tech firms, “This is a $1 trillion spending jump ball over the next decade.”

Micron Technology’s Strategic Position

With a $156.54 billion market cap, MU is a crucial player in the AI ecosystem because it focuses on providing cutting-edge memory and storage products globally. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit; Mobile Business Unit; Embedded Business Unit; and Storage Business Unit.

Micron’s dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory are critical components in AI applications, offering the speed and efficiency required for high-performance computing. The company has consistently introduced innovative products, such as the HBM2E with the industry’s fastest, highest capacity high-bandwidth memory (HBM), designed to advance generative AI innovation.

This month, MU announced sampling its next-generation GDDR7 graphics memory with the industry’s highest bit density. With more than 1.5 TB/s of system bandwidth and four independent channels to optimize workloads, Micron GDDR7 memory allows faster response times, smoother gameplay, and reduced processing times. The best-in-class capabilities of Micro GDDR7 will optimize AI, gaming, and high-performance computing workloads.

Notably, Micron recently reached an industry milestone as the first to validate and ship 128GB DDR5 32Gb server DRAM to address the increasing demands for rigorous speed and capacity of memory-intensive Gen AI applications.

Furthermore, MU has forged strategic partnerships with prominent tech companies like NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Intel Corporation (INTC), positioning the company at the forefront of AI technology advancements. In February this year, Micron started mass production of its HBM2E solution for use in Nvidia’s latest AI chip. Micron’s 24GB 8H HBM3E will be part of NVIDIA H200 Tensor Core GPUs, expected to begin shipping in the second quarter.

Also, Micron's 128GB RDIMMs are ready for deployment on the 4th and 5th Gen Intel® Xeon® platforms. In addition to Intel, Micron’s 128GB DDR5 RDIMM memory will be supported by a robust ecosystem, including Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE), and Supermicro, among many others.

Further, in April, MU qualified a full suite of its automotive-grade memory and storage solutions for Qualcomm Technologies Inc.’s Snapdragon Digital Chassis, a comprehensive set of cloud-connected platforms designed to power data-rich, intelligent automotive services. This partnership is aimed at helping the ecosystem build next-generation intelligent vehicles powered by sophisticated AI.

Robust Second-Quarter Financials and Upbeat Outlook

Solid AI demand and constrained supply accelerated Micron’s return to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal 2024, which ended February 29, 2024. MU reported revenue of $5.82 billion, beating analysts’ estimate of $5.35 billion. This revenue is compared to $4.74 billion for the previous quarter and $3.69 billion for the same period in 2023.

The company’s non-GAAP gross margin was $1.16 billion, versus $37 million in the prior quarter and negative $1.16 billion for the previous year’s quarter. Micron’s non-GAAP operating income came in at $204 million, compared to an operating loss of $955 million and $2.08 billion for the prior quarter and the same period last year, respectively.

MU posted non-GAAP net income and earnings per share of $476 million and $0.42 for the second quarter, compared to non-GAAP net loss and loss per share of $2.08 billion and $1.91 a year ago, respectively. The company’s EPS also surpassed the consensus loss per share estimate of $0.24. During the quarter, its operating cash flow was $1.22 billion versus $343 million for the same quarter of 2023.

“Micron delivered fiscal Q2 results with revenue, gross margin and EPS well above the high-end of our guidance range — a testament to our team’s excellent execution on pricing, products and operations,” said Sanjay Mehrotra, MU’s President and CEO. “Our preeminent product portfolio positions us well to deliver a strong fiscal second half of 2024. We believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multi-year opportunity enabled by AI.”

For the third quarter of 2024, the company expects revenue of $6.60 million ± $200 million, and its gross margin is projected to be 26.5% ± 1.5%. Also, Micron expects its non-GAAP earnings per share to be $0.45 ± 0.07.

Bottom Line

MU is strategically positioned to benefit from the burgeoning AI market, driven by its diversified portfolio of advanced memory and storage solutions, strategic partnerships and investments, robust financial health characterized by solid revenue growth and profitability, and expanding market presence.

The company’s recent innovations, including HBM3E and DDR5 RDIMM memory, underscore the commitment to advancing its capabilities across AI and high-performance computing applications.

Moreover, the company’s second-quarter 2024 earnings beat analysts' expectations, supported by the AI boom. Also, Micron offered a rosy guidance for the third quarter of fiscal 2024. Investors eagerly await insights into MU’s financial performance, strategic updates, and outlook during the third-quarter earnings conference call scheduled for June 26, 2024.

Braid Senior Research Analyst Tristan Gerra upgraded MU stock from “Neutral” to “Outperform” and increased the price target from $115 to $150, citing that the company has meaningful upside opportunities. Gerra stated that DRAM chip pricing has been rising while supply is anticipated to slow. Also, Morgan Stanley raised their outlook for Micron from “Underweight” to “Equal-Weight.”

As AI investments from numerous sectors continue to grow, Micron stands to capture significant market share, making it an attractive option for investors seeking long-term growth in the semiconductor sector.

Recession-Proof Your Portfolio With Top Stocks to Buy Now

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Amid economic headlines of slowing growth and persistent inflationary pressures, navigating the financial markets can feel like steering through turbulent waters. According to Commerce Department estimates, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024, decelerating from a brisk 3.4% growth rate observed in late 2023. This underscores a shift from robust expansion to more tempered economic activity.

Despite this slowdown, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.3% in May compared to a year ago, slightly lower than April's 3.4%. While this marks a decline from the pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in 2022, it remains above policymakers' target of around 2%.

The investment landscape grows increasingly complex as the Federal Reserve grapples with taming inflation through successive interest rate hikes. In this climate, the quest for recession-proof investments becomes paramount for risk-averse investors to safeguard their portfolios against economic downturns.

Historically known for their resilience during economic downturns, food makers are increasingly sought after. These stocks encompass essential goods such as packaged food products, beverages, and household staples that consumers prioritize consistently, even during lean times.

In this article, I have highlighted three top food maker stocks, General Mills, Inc. (GIS), Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), and Campbell Soup Company (CPB), to consider investing if you are looking to recession-proof your portfolios. So, let’s dig deeper into these stocks' fundamentals and growth prospects.

General Mills, Inc. (GIS)

Food maker General Mills, Inc. (GIS) has been a household name for decades, with a lineup of beloved brands that span everything from cereals to snacks, yogurt, baking products, and even pet foods. You must have probably grown up with their iconic brands like Cheerios, Haagen-Dazs, Betty Crocker, and Yoplait.

In the third quarter earnings report, GIS demonstrated growth on both the top and bottom lines, navigating through moderating inflation, stabilized supply chains, and a cautious yet resilient consumer base.

For the fiscal 2024 third quarter that ended February 25, 2024, GIS’ net sales amounted to $5.09 billion, beating the analysts’ expectations of $4.97 billion. Its adjusted gross margin grew 13.2% from the year-ago value to $914.50 million.

Moreover, adjusted net earnings attributable to GIS increased 15.9% year-over-year to $674 million, while adjusted EPS stood at $1.17, up 1.8% from the prior year’s quarter. The company even exceeded the consensus earnings estimate by $0.12.

Looking ahead, Wall Street anticipates GIS to post earnings per share of $1.00 for the fourth quarter (ended May 2024), down 10.8% from last year’s quarter. The company is expected to generate $4.87 billion in revenue for the same period, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year decline.

However, given General Mills' track record of beating earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, there's a lot of optimism that it might once again exceed expectations in the forthcoming quarterly announcement.

General Mills is preparing for the rest of fiscal 2024 with an eye on the economic health of consumers, the slowing pace of inflation, and the increasing stability of supply chains. The company forecasts organic net sales to be flat or slightly down by 1%. Yet, it remains confident, projecting a 4% to 5% increase in adjusted operating profit and adjusted EPS in constant currency.

Regarding rewarding shareholders, General Mills offers a stable dividend with a four-year average yield of 3.13% and a payout ratio of 49.9%. GIS’ current annual dividend of $2.36 translates to a 3.61% yield at the prevailing share price. Moreover, the company has increased its dividend payouts at a CAGR of 5.3% over the past three years.

Despite the positive earnings report, GIS shares have declined nearly 20% over the past year and more than 7% over the past month. Yet, the stock has managed to eke out marginal gains year-to-date, reflecting a resilient performance amidst broader market challenges.

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) is renowned for its leadership in protein and a lineup of household brands, including Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, and Ball Park. The company released its half-yearly results on May 6, exhibiting its resilience and growth in a competitive market.

During the fiscal second quarter (ended March 30, 2024), TSN's sales amounted to $13.07 billion, slightly below the year-ago value of $13.13 billion. However, its attributable non-GAAP net income amounted to $220 million compared to the prior year’s adjusted net loss of $12 million.

Likewise, the company’s adjusted operating income improved substantially from the prior year’s quarter to $406 million. The company's non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.62 (comfortably beating the Street’s estimate of $0.40) versus a loss per share of $0.04 a year ago.

The consensus EPS estimate of $0.62 for its fiscal third quarter (ending June 2024) represents a 315.3% improvement year-over-year. The consensus revenue estimate of $13.17 billion for the current quarter indicates a marginal increase year-over-year. Moreover, Tyson Foods has an excellent earnings surprise history; it surpassed the consensus EPS estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.

Benefiting from robust free cash flows totaling $556 million in the first half of the year, Tyson Foods announced a quarterly dividend of $0.49 per share on Class A common stock and $0.441 per share on Class B common stock, payable on September 13, 2024.

TSN’s four-year average dividend yield is 2.80%, and its forward annual dividend of $1.96 translates to a 3.58% yield. Tyson Foods has increased its dividend for 12 consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to returning value to investors. Additionally, its dividend payouts have grown at a 3.6% CAGR over the past three years and a 6.5% CAGR over the past five years.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2024, Tyson Foods expects total adjusted operating income to range between $1.4 billion and $1.8 billion, with sales projected to remain relatively flat compared to fiscal 2023. Despite market fluctuations, TSN stock has shown resilience, gaining over 8% over the past six months and nearly 2% year-to-date.

Campbell Soup Company (CPB)

Campbell Soup Company (CPB) is a staple in American kitchens, famous for its iconic soups and a wide variety of products, including snacks, beverages, and packaged fresh foods. The company owns popular brands like Pepperidge Farm, V8, and Snyder’s-Lance, which many of us have grown up with. It primarily operates through two segments: Meals & Beverages and Snacks.

In its latest earnings report, the company exceeded analysts' expectations on top and bottom lines. For the fiscal third quarter ending April 28, 2024, CPB’s net sales increased 6.3% year-over-year to $2.37 billion, partly thanks to its acquisition of Sovos Brands.

Furthermore, the company’s adjusted EBIT and non-GAAP attributable net earnings increased 13.1% and 9.8% from the year-ago values to $354 million and $224 million, respectively. Also, its adjusted EPS came in at $0.75, representing a 10.3% increase from the prior year’s quarter.

Analysts expect CPB’s revenue to increase 12.4% year-over-year to $2.32 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter (ending July 2024). In addition, its EPS is projected to register a year-over-year growth of 23.9%, settling at $0.62. Moreover, it surpassed the consensus EPS and revenue estimates in three of the trailing four quarters.

On May 13, Campbell announced a quarterly dividend of $0.37 per share on May 13, payable to its shareholders on July 29, 2024. With a four-year average dividend yield of 3.17%, the current annual dividend of $1.48 translates to a 3.46% yield. Over the past five years, Campbell’s has shown a commitment to returning value to its investors, with dividend payouts growing at a CAGR of 7.1%

Despite an upbeat earnings report, the shares of the food company have tumbled more than 6% over the past month, though it has seen a slight uptick over the past nine months. Further, the company has adjusted its full-year 2024 guidance to reflect the impact of the Sovos acquisition, forecasting net sales growth of 3-4% and organic sales tracking to approximately flat to down 1%. Adjusted EPS is expected to increase by 2-3%, between $3.07 and $3.10.

Overall, Campbell continues to be a resilient player in the food industry, adapting and growing despite market fluctuations and economic challenges.

Bottom Line

Food maker stocks are historically resilient during economic slowdowns due to the inelastic nature of their products. When economic uncertainty rises, consumers prioritize spending on necessities, such as food, over discretionary items.

Packaged foods, beverages, and other household staples become even more crucial as they offer convenience and affordability, making them a go-to choice for families tightening their budgets. So, consistent demand for packaged food companies, irrespective of economic conditions, underscores their defensive nature, providing a safe haven for risk-averse investors looking to safeguard their portfolios against economic downturns.

Given their essential products, strong brand loyalty, and consistent financial performance, packaged food stocks like GIS, TSN, and CPB offer enhanced stability and growth potential, making them attractive buys for investors looking to recession-proof their portfolios.

The Financial Implications of Amazon's New World Console Launch

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Amazon.com, Inc.’s (AMZN) MMORPG, New World, initially a sensation upon its 2021 release, is poised to splash on consoles later this year. Developed by Amazon Games Orange County, New World faced challenges post-launch, including long queue times and lackluster content to overpriced microtransactions and bleak plot threads.

Despite a rocky start, ongoing updates and significant expansions, such as 2022’s Brimstone Sands, have steadily improved the game's standing. Now, gamers on next-gen consoles will soon have the opportunity to experience these enhancements firsthand.

During the Summer Game Fest hosted by Geoff Keighley, Amazon Games unveiled that New World will make its console debut on October 15, 2024, under the new title New World: Aeternum. This major update introduces crossplay functionality, enabling players to team up with friends across different platforms. However, it will not support cross-progression, meaning characters will remain locked to the platform on which they were created.

The game’s controls and user interface have been redesigned to suit controllers better, and Amazon Games promises to maintain update parity across PC, PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series X/S from October onwards.

The rebranding to New World: Aeternum signals significant content enhancements and gameplay improvements. This update will revamp the initial game experience with more cutscenes, an enriched dialogue system, and an option for solo play. Also, it will introduce new features such as a larger PvP zone, swimming, endgame solo trials, and a 10-player raid.

Christoph Hartmann, Vice President of Amazon Games, emphasized the importance of player feedback in their development process. "Listening to player feedback is fundamental to how we make games, and we know New World: Aeternum delivers on the promise of a fresh and compelling New World experience that players can enjoy together across platforms," he said.

The game's transition to consoles comes with a price tag of $59.99 for digital copies, ensuring access for both console and PC players. Existing owners of the base game and the Rise of the Angry Earth expansion on Steam will receive Aeternum at no extra cost. However, those with only the base game must purchase the expansion to access the new content. An $80 deluxe edition will also offer a unique Bear mount and armor skin.

This console release marks a strategic move by Amazon Games to revitalize the game's player base and expand its audience. With these updates, New World: Aeternum aims to carve a new path in the MMO genre and reshape the financial landscape for Amazon's gaming division.

Upcoming titles from Amazon Games also feature the next major entry in the Tomb Raider series by Crystal Dynamics and THRONE AND LIBERTY, developed by NCSOFT.

Financial Dynamics of New World's Console Launch

In the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, Amazon’s net sales increased 12.5% year-over-year to $143.31 billion, beating analysts’ expectations by $763.92 million. The company's ad revenue climbed to $11.8 billion from $9.5 billion, while cloud computing sales, for the first time, were on track to hit $100 billion annually.

Its operating income improved by 220.6% from the year-ago value to $15.31 billion. The company’s net income of $10.43 billion or $0.98 per share indicates robust growth of 228.8% and 216.1% from the prior year’s period, respectively. This EPS figure came comfortably above the Street’s estimate of $0.83.

“It was a good start to the year across the business, and you can see that in both our customer experience improvements and financial results,” Andy Jassy, Amazon’s chief executive, said in a statement.

The company's financial prowess extended beyond robust top and bottom-line figures, with its trailing-12-month operating cash flow soaring by 82% year-over-year to $99.15 billion. Likewise, its free cash flow also saw a significant turnaround in the same period, with an inflow of $50.15 billion, compared to an outflow of $3.32 billion for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, 2023.

Against this backdrop, the release of New World: Aeternum on consoles is poised to drive substantial revenue growth. The game, priced at $59.99, targets the growing base of next-gen console owners, many of whom may not have access to high-end gaming PCs. This strategic move presents an opportunity for Amazon Games to tap into a new market segment and expand its customer base and, consequently, its revenue through game sales.

Moreover, the expanded player base on consoles creates opportunities for increased microtransaction sales. Despite initial criticism over pricing, microtransactions remain a lucrative revenue stream for gaming companies. The influx of players on consoles and engaging new content and improved features are expected to bolster microtransaction sales, ensuring a steady cash flow for Amazon Games.

Looking ahead, the long-term financial implications of this console launch are promising. Successful MMORPGs often sustain revenue streams through continuous updates and expansions. If New World: Aeternum can attract and retain a substantial player base on consoles, Amazon Games stands to benefit from ongoing revenue streams generated by content updates, seasonal events, and future expansions.

Bottom Line

AMZN's robust financial performance, coupled with the strategic launch of New World: Aeternum on consoles, underscores the company's position as a critical player in the competitive gaming industry. The expansion into the console market broadens Amazon Games' reach and opens new avenues for revenue growth through increased player engagement and microtransactions.

With the potential for sustained profitability driven by a growing player base and ongoing content updates, Amazon's foray into the gaming industry signifies a significant opportunity for long-term investors seeking exposure to a rapidly evolving and lucrative market segment.

Copper's Correction: Time to Re-Evaluate Your Investments

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The copper market has seen a significant uptrend in 2024, with prices surging more than 20% from mid-February to late May. However, shortly after that, copper prices fell below $10,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) due to increasing global inventories and sluggish U.S. job openings data.

Meanwhile, COMEX copper futures continued their downward trend, dipping below $4.5 per pound in June, nearing their lowest level in over a month, completely erasing the gains made in May that pushed copper prices to a record high of $5.2. This price decline is primarily due to evidence of lower near-term demand.

After the official Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) indicated an unexpected contraction in China's manufacturing sector, trade data for the period revealed a 7.1% decrease in imports of copper ore turnover, despite the previous price surge, as refiners have increasingly turned to using scrap to sustain production. As a result, Chinese inventories have grown to their highest levels since 2020, surpassing seasonal trends that usually favor a drawdown.

So, the price of deliveries from Shanghai bonded warehouses has remained at a discount to the LME for two consecutive weeks. Moreover, the LME three-month contract has lost nearly 12% since it hit a record high of $11,104.50 on May 20, 2024.

Despite this, copper prices have risen by around 15% year-to-date, driven by speculative bets on impending shortages. This speculation is fueled by copper’s critical role in electrification, particularly in grid-scale energy and data center infrastructure, and the challenges associated with launching new projects for fresh ore supply.

Bullish Long-Term Trend

The long-term COMEX copper futures chart, dating back to 1971, reveals that futures never surpassed the $1.6475 per pound level before 2005. However, since then, the market dynamics have shifted significantly, with copper prices not falling below $2 since early 2016 and have stayed above $3 per pound since October 2020. The price action pattern indicates that a new all-time high has followed every correction in copper.

Similarly, the long-term London Metals Exchange (LME) copper chart exhibits a bullish technical pattern.

Overall, these patterns suggest a robust and ongoing upward trend in copper prices, driven by increased demand, limited supply, and copper’s critical role in various industries. Despite short-term volatility, this long-term bullish trend indicates a positive outlook for copper investments.

However, the recent correction prompts investors to reassess their positions in copper stocks such as Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) and Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO), considering both the potential for future growth and the current risks involved.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

With a $69.76 billion market cap, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is a prominent metals company with a primary focus on copper. The company manages seven copper operations in North America: Morenci, Bagdad, Safford (including Lone Star), Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona, as well as Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico. Additionally, FCX operates a copper smelter in Miami, Arizona.

FCX has a potential expansion project to surpass the concentrator capacity of its Bagdad operation in northwest Arizona. With a life expectancy exceeding 80 years, Bagdad's reserve supports an expanded operation. In late 2023, the company finalized technical and economic studies, indicating the opportunity to build new concentrating facilities to boost copper production by 200-250 million pounds annually, exceeding Bagdad’s current output rate.

At its Safford/Lone Star operation, FCX is completing projects aimed at increasing copper production from oxide ores to 300 million pounds per year. It marks an expansion from the initial design capacity of 200 million pounds per year.

For the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, FCX’s copper sales were 1.1 billion pounds, 11% higher than the January 2024 estimate of 1 billion pounds, and 33% up from the prior year’s quarter, mainly reflecting higher mining and milling rates and ore grades at PT-FI. Its revenues rose 17.3% year-over-year to $6.32 billion.

Further, average unit net cash costs for FCX’s copper mines of $1.51 per pound were below the January 2024 estimate of $1.55 per pound and first-quarter 2023, primarily reflecting higher copper volumes at PT-FI. During the quarter, the company’s operating cash flows were $1.9 billion, net of $0.1 billion of working capital and other uses. As of March 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents totaled $5.2 billion.

Kathleen L. Quirk, FCX’s President, stated, “Our first-quarter results reflect strong execution of our operating plans, consistent with our long-standing focus on operational execution.”

“Market fundamentals for copper are positive, supported by copper’s increasingly important role in the global economy and limited available supplies to meet growing demand. Freeport is strongly positioned for the future as a leading producer of copper with multiple options for future growth and an experienced team with a track record of accomplishment,” Quirk added.

Moreover, the company’s financial policy aligns with its strategic objectives of maintaining a solid balance sheet, delivering cash returns to shareholders, and pursuing opportunities for future growth. On March 27, 2024, FCX’s Board of Directors declared cash dividends of $0.15 per share on its common stock, paid on May 1, 2024, to shareholders of record as of April 15, 2024.

For the year 2024, the company’s sales are expected to approximate 4.15 billion pounds of copper, and unit net cash costs are anticipated to average $1.57 per pound of copper. Further, FCX expects operating cash flows to be nearly $7.4 billion, net of $0.2 billion of working capital and other uses, for the year.

Street expects FCX’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year (ending December 2024) to increase 10.5% and 5.8% year-over-year to $25.26 billion and $1.63, respectively. Moreover, the company has topped the consensus revenue estimates in all four trailing quarters.

Shares of FCF have surged more than 30% over the past six months and approximately 31% over the past year. However, the stock has declined nearly 5% over the past month.

Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)

With a market cap of $84.35 billion, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) engages in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals. The company operates the Toquepala and Cuajone open-pit mines and a smelter and refinery in Peru; and La Caridad, an open-pit copper mine, alongside copper ore concentrator, a SX-EW plant, a smelter, refinery, and a rod plant in Mexico.

In addition, the company operates Buenavista, an open-pit copper mine, as well as two copper concentrators and two operating SX-EW plants in Mexico.

During the first quarter that ended March 31, 2024, SCCO’s net sales grew 13.3% from the previous quarter to $2.60 billion. The growth was mainly driven by a surge in the sales volumes of copper (+9.6%) and silver (+15.3%) and an uptick in metal prices for all its products. Its operating cash cost per pound of copper dropped 14.2% quarter-over-quarter.

Notably, copper production registered a quarter-on-quarter rise of 6,181 tons (+2.6%) and 16,998 tons (+7.6%) compared to the prior year’s quarter. Year-over-year growth was mainly attributable to a rise in copper from concentrate production at all its mines (+12.7%), including 2,158 tons of copper from the new zinc concentrator.

Furthermore, SCCO’s operating income grew 37% from the prior year to $1.19 billion. The company’s net income was $736 million, or $0.95 per share, an improvement of 65.4% and 63.8% quarter-on-quarter, respectively. Its adjusted EBITDA rose 34.3% from the previous year to $1.42 billion.

Cash inflows from operating activities were $659.9 million, a 22% increase from the $540.9 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2023. This improvement was due to strong cash generation from its operations, driven by higher sales and effective cost-control measures. As of March 31, 2024, the company’s cash and cash equivalents were $1.25 billion, compared to $1.15 billion as of December 31, 2023.

On April 19, 2024, SCCO’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly stock dividend of 0.0104 shares of common stock, paid on May 23, 2024, for shareholders of record at the close of business on May 8, 2024.

During the last earnings call, SCCO stated that it sees robust market demand, driven by both a resilient US economy and emerging needs in decarbonization technologies and artificial intelligence. These factors will play a substantial role in bolstering long-term copper demand, thereby maintaining favorable copper prices. Demand is anticipated to increase by nearly 2.5% this year.

Analysts expect SCCO’s revenue and EPS for the second quarter (ending June 2024) to increase 14.4% and 27.7% year-over-year to $2.63 billion and $0.90, respectively. Additionally, the company’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year 2024 are anticipated to grow 11.3% and 25.1% from the prior year to $11.01 billion and $3.89, respectively.

SCCO’s stock has surged more than 44% over the past six months and approximately 54% over the past year. However, the stock has plunged around 10% over the past month due to a recent correction.

Bottom Line

The recent correction in copper prices, marked by a decline from a record high hit on May 20, can be attributed to several factors affecting supply and demand dynamics in the market. Higher global inventories and evidence of lower near-term demand, particularly highlighted by an unexpected contraction in China's manufacturing sector, led to a downturn in copper prices.

For investors, this correction serves as a reminder of the inherent volatility in commodity markets. However, it does not necessarily negate the long-term bullish trend driven by increased demand, limited supply, and copper’s critical role in various industries, especially in electrification and decarbonization initiatives. Despite short-term fluctuations, the fundamental drivers supporting copper’s growth trajectory remain intact.

Investors should consider strategies to navigate periods of high volatility. Diversification across different assets can help mitigate risks associated with individual commodities or stocks. Furthermore, hedging options such as futures contracts or options can safeguard against adverse price movements.

In the case of FCX and SCCO, their robust operational performances and strategic initiatives position them for long-term solid growth. However, investors should remain vigilant, continuously reassessing their positions and adjusting strategies as market conditions evolve. They can navigate copper price fluctuations by staying informed and adopting a diversified approach while capitalizing on the long-term potential.

The Bubble Has Burst: Selling Off Pandemic-Era Recreational Stocks

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed consumer behavior, particularly in the recreational vehicles (RVs) industry. In the early days of the pandemic, extra cash that found its way into Americans’ bank accounts due to federal government largess and a desire for social distancing drove a surge in sales of RVs, boats, motorcycles, and snowmobiles, propelling them to multi-year records.

However, this initial bubble during the pandemic for RVs—along with boats, motorcycles, and other outdoor vehicles—has burst, leading to a significant market correction as demand normalizes and financial conditions tighten. As the cost of living increased, remote working became more challenging, and interest rates surged, financing for these big-ticket items grew prohibitively expensive.

According to the RV Industry Association, RV shipments witnessed a nearly 40% increase from 2020 to 2021. The RV industry shipped a record of about 600,240 units to dealers in 2021, up 19% from the record set in 2017. RV shipments nosedived post the pandemic surge. The RV industry ended 2023 with 313,174 shipments, down 36.5% compared to 2022.

“The pandemic did spark a lot more of buying action from the consumer but now it’s coming back to more of the 2018, 2019 numbers, rather than the crazy numbers in 2020 through 2022,” said co-owner and general manager of Midway, Chris Grant.

As the pandemic bubble has burst, investors could consider selling off recreational stocks such as Thor Industries, Inc. (THO), Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO), and Polaris Inc. (PII). Let’s delve deeper into the stocks’ fundamentals and near-term outlook.

Thor Industries, Inc. (THO)

Thor Industries, Inc. (THO), a leading manufacturer of RVs, experienced a tremendous surge in demand during the pandemic but now faces a market correction. The stock has struggled to maintain its pandemic-era gains, with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending and higher financing costs dampening enthusiasm for RV purchases.

Shares of THO have plunged more than 8% over the past month and approximately 10% over the past six months.

THO’s trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 14.10% is 61.7% lower than the 36.80% industry average. Likewise, the stock’s trailing-12-month EBIT margin and net income margin of 4.28% and 2.59% unfavorably compare to the industry averages of 7.59% and 4.70%, respectively.

“In our fiscal third quarter, our independent dealers experienced increased retail activity during the Spring selling season; however, conversion to sales remained difficult in light of the economic pressures on retail buyers. Faced with elevated floor plan interest rates, our independent dealers remain understandably cautious with their ordering patterns; consequently, our independent dealer inventory levels remain suppressed,” said Bob Martin, President and CEO of THOR Industries.

“Given the macroeconomic conditions, we see this cautious approach as healthy for our industry and maintain our confidence in a robust return of our top and bottom line performance once macro pressures subside,” Martin added.

For the quarter that ended April 30, 2024, THO’s net sales decreased 4.4% year-over-year to $2.80 billion. North American Toward RV net sales were down 4.7%. Its gross profit came in at $421.85 million, down 2.5% from the year-ago value. Its net income and earnings per common share were $113.58 million and $2.13, declines of 5.1% and 4.9% year-over-year, respectively.

As of April 30, 2024, the company’s cash and equivalents stood at $371.82 million, compared to $441.23 million as of July 31, 2023. THO’s current liabilities increased to $1.74 billion at the end of the third quarter.

Given the challenging market conditions, the company lowered its full-year 2024 guidance. The prolonged market downturn, which persisted longer than anticipated, continues to impact THO’s independent dealers and consumers, which the company believes will constrain its top and bottom lines for the fourth quarter.

Based on current North American order intake levels through the end of May, the company revised its guidance ranges to reflect a more conservative fiscal year 2024 North American industry wholesale shipment range of 315,000 to 325,000 units, down from the prior range of 330,000 to 340,000 units.

For the full year, THOR Industries expects consolidated net sales in the range of $9.8 billion to $10.1 billion, compared to the previous guidance of $10.0 billion to $10.5 billion. Its gross profit margin is expected to be 13.75%-14%, down from previously guided 14%-14.5%. Also, the company’s earnings per share are anticipated to range from $4.50 to $4.75 (previously $5-$5.50).

Analysts also appear highly bearish about the company’s prospects. Street expects THO’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year (ending July 2024) to decrease 10% and 32.4% year-over-year to $10.01 billion and $4.70, respectively.

Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO)

c, another prominent player in the RV market, has faced headwinds as demand wanes. The company enjoyed a boom during the height of the pandemic, but the current economic uncertainty and rising interest rates have led to decreased sales and stock performance.

WGO’s stock has slumped nearly 15% over the past six months and more than 19% year-to-date.

After all, WGO’s trailing-12-month gross profit margin and EBITDA margin of 15.93% and 8.59% are lower than the respective industry averages of 36.80% and 11.18%. Similarly, the stock’s trailing-12-month net income margin of 3.70% is 21.4% lower than the industry average of 4.70%.

In the second quarter that ended February 24, 2024, WGO’s net revenues declined 18.8% year-over-year to $703.60 million, driven by lower unit sales related to market conditions and unfavorable product mix. Its gross profit decreased 28.3% year-over-year to $105.30 million. Its operating income was $35.40 million, down 53.9% from the previous year’s quarter.

Furthermore, the company reported a net loss of $12.70 million, or $0.43 per common share, compared to a net income of $52.80 million, or $1.52 per common share, respectively. Its adjusted EBITDA decreased 83.7% from the year-ago value to $13.90 million.

During the quarter, wholesale shipments were constrained as dealers closely managed inventory levels amid a high interest rate environment and seasonal demand trends. As of February 24, 2024, the backlog from the Motorhome RV segment was $452.20 million (2,582 units), down 48.2% from the prior year.

As of February 24, 2024, the company’s total outstanding debt was $694.80 million. Winnebago Industries completed a $350 million offering of convertible senior notes for refinancing 2025 maturities in the second quarter. Its cash and cash equivalents were reduced to $265.70 million, compared to $309.90 as of August 26, 2023.

Analysts expect WGO’s revenue for the third quarter (ended May 2024) to decrease 10.6% year-over-year to $805.49 million. The consensus EPS estimate of $1.34 for the same quarter reflects a 36.9% year-over-year decline. Additionally, the company missed consensus revenue estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, which is disappointing.

For the fiscal year ending August 2024, the company’s revenue and EPS are expected to decline 10.1% and 35.2% year-over-year to $3.14 billion and $4.97, respectively.

Polaris Inc. (PII)

Polaris Inc. (PII), known for its motorcycles, snowmobiles, and other recreational vehicles, has also felt the pinch. PII’s stock soared as consumers sought outdoor activities during lockdowns. However, the subsequent economic shifts have cooled demand, leading to a decline in stock value. Shares of PII have declined more than 18% year-to-date and around 35% over the past year.

PII’s trailing-12-month gross profit margin of 22.23% is 39.6% lower than the 36.80% industry average. Likewise, the stock’s trailing-12-month EBITDA margin and levered FCF margin of 9.78% and 3.72% are lower than the industry averages of 11.18% and 5.46%, respectively.

PII’s sales decreased 20% year-over-year to $1.74 billion for the first quarter ended April 23, 2024. The company’s sales were negatively impacted by lower volume and net pricing driven by higher promotional activity partially offset by a favorable product mix. North America sales were down 22% year-over-year. Its adjusted gross profit margin declined 29.5% from the year-ago value to $330.70 million.

In addition, adjusted net income and adjusted EPS attributable to PII were $13 million and $0.23, down 89.1% and 88.8% year-over-year, respectively. Its adjusted EBITDA declined 53.8% from the prior year’s period to $110 million. Also, the company’s free cash flow came in at a negative $162.10 million, compared to $35.10 million in the previous year’s quarter.

According to the 2024 business outlook, Polaris expects full-year sales to be down 5 to 7% compared to fiscal 2023. The company anticipates adjusted EPS attributed to Polaris Inc. common shareholders down 10 to 15% versus 2023.

Street expects PII’s revenue and EPS for the second quarter (ending June 2024) to decrease 2.3% and 6.3% year-over-year to $2.17 billion and $2.27, respectively. Further, the company’s revenue and EPS for the fiscal year 2024 are expected to decline 6.2% and 13.7% from the prior year to $8.38 billion and $7.90, respectively.

Bottom Line

Companies primarily operating in the RV industry face ongoing macroeconomic challenges. While the RV and boat market experienced an unprecedented boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, the subsequent decline in consumer demand and economic factors like higher interest rates and inflation have created a challenging environment for these stocks.

Despite this downturn, some companies, including Brunswick Corporation (BC), managed to navigate these choppy waters. However, other companies, including Thor Industries, Winnebago, and Polaris, have not fared as well. Investors should carefully assess their positions in these companies and consider the potential benefits of reallocating their portfolios in response to the changing market dynamics.

Thus, it seems prudent to consider selling struggling recreational stocks THO, WGO, and PII, which have lost their massive pandemic-era gains.