Author: Robert Boslego

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook - September 2020

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dropped by 45 million barrels in August to end at 3.120 billion, 179 million barrels higher than a year ago. It estimates that inventories peaked in May 2020 at 3.209 billion.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 91.55 million barrels per day (mmbd) for August, compared to global oil consumption of 94.31 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 2.76 mmbd or 85 million barrels for the month. About 32 million barrels of the draw for August is attributable to non-OECD stocks.

For 2020, OECD inventories are now projected to build by a net 46 million barrels to 2.939 billion. For 2021 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 44 million barrels to end the year at 2.895 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook - September 2020" →

US Crude Production Stages A Modest Rebound

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that June crude oil production rebounded by just 424,000 barrels per day, averaging 10.436 mmbd, following a 2 million barrel per day collapse in May. That compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 10.900 mmbd, a figure that was nearly 500,000 b/d higher.

Monthly US Crude Production

Rebounds were largest in Texas (227,000), Oklahoma (102,000) Wyoming (57,000), and New Mexico (51,000). Given the huge reduction in May, production dropped by 1.624 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply fell by an additional 136,000 b/d from a year ago. Continue reading "US Crude Production Stages A Modest Rebound" →

Analysis Of The US Petroleum Inventories

Posted on by Robert Boslego

According to the Energy Information Administration, US petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) dropped by 2.6 million barrels last week to 1.444 billion, whereas SPR stocks dropped by 1.6 million barrels. Total stocks stand 152 mmb above the rising, rolling 5-year average and about 133 mmb higher than a year ago. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 385 mmb above that average.

Total US Oil Stocks

Crude Production

Production averaged 10.7 mmbd last week, down unchanged from the prior week, and 10.875 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 11.4 % v. a year ago. In the year-to-date, crude production averaged 11.974 mmbd, off 1.1 % v. last year, over 200,000 b/d lower.

US Crude Production

Other Supply

I have previously noted in an article how the “Other Supply,” primarily natural gas liquids and renewables, are integral to petroleum supply. The EIA reported that it dipped 3,000 b/d v. last week at 6.639 mmbd. The 4-week trend in “Other Supply” averaged 6.746 mmbd, off 6.7 % over the same weeks last year. In YTD, they are unchanged from 2019. Continue reading "Analysis Of The US Petroleum Inventories" →

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, August 2020

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for August, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dropped by 58 million barrels in July to end at 3.113 billion, 172 million barrels higher than a year ago. It estimates that inventories peaked in May 2020 at 3.181 billion.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 88.72 million barrels per day (mmbd) for July, compared to global oil consumption of 93.42 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 4.69 mmbd or 146 million barrels for the month. About 88 million barrels of the draw for July is attributable to non-OECD stocks.

For 2020, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by a net 34 million barrels to 2.859 billion. For 2021 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 102 million barrels to end the year at 2.757 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made to incorporate the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, August 2020" →

U.S. Crude Oil Production Collapsed In May

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that May crude oil production collapsed by 1.989 million barrels per day (mmbd), averaging 10.001 mmbd. That compares to the EIA’s weekly estimates (interpolated) of 11.419 mmbd, a figure that was 1.418 mmbd higher.

Crude Oil Production

Reductions were largest in Texas (764,000), North Dakota (353,000) and the Gulf of Mexico (300,000) and New Mexico (168,000). Given the huge reduction in May, production dropped by 2.112 mmb/d over the past 12 months. This number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply fell by an additional 680,000 b/d from a year ago.

Crude Oil Production
Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Collapsed In May" →