Hasbro's 52-Week High: Well, That Was Easy

Hasbro (HAS) is fresh off Q2 2019 earnings after turning the corner and going on the offensive with a slew of revenue verticals and end markets. Hasbro has its Disney toy licensing deal (Marvel, Star Wars and Disney Princess lines), Hasbro Studios (Transformers’ Bumblebee, My Little Pony, Power Rangers), E-Sports (Dungeons and Dragons and Magic: The Gathering) and reinventing its legacy games (Monopoly and Nerf) while driving newer products (Beyblades). Hasbro blew out expectations for its Q1 2019 earnings and the stock jumped 16%, breaking out above the $100 threshold, a level that hadn’t seen in over 6 months. This was followed up with its recent Q2 2019 earnings that blew away investors and the stock jumped 9% to all-time highs of over $120 per share.

Hasbro has set the post-Toys-R-Us bankruptcy narrative and laid out a business roadmap for long term profitable growth across its brands. Hasbro has had the tough task of getting out in front of the Toys-R-Us bankruptcy and working its way through the glut of merchandise. This sentiment has been bolstered by positive commentary from its CEO that the company has effectively absolved itself of the Toy R Us related bankruptcy headwind. All of this, while being fully committed to returning value to shareholders via a combination of share buybacks and dividend payouts. Hasbro has a compelling future across its portfolio with many catalysts in the near and long-term time horizons. As this turn-around was unfolding, the previous two quarters weren’t a surprise considering the year-over-year comparisons were in the midst of the Toys-R-Us fallout while the company layered-in several growth initiatives. This recent 6-month run in the stock was... well, easy!

Q1/Q2 2019 Earnings Blowouts

Hasbro posted an unexpected profit for Q1 with EPS coming in at $0.32 against expectations of -$0.11, beating estimates by $0.32 per share. Revenue also came in much higher than expected with $732.5 million and beating estimates by 66.5 million. Q2 numbers were impressive as well, EPS came in at $0.78 against expectations of $0.28, beating estimates by $0.28 per share. Revenue beat expectations as well, coming in at $984.5 million (year-over-year growth of 9%), beating Wall Street estimates by $25.6 million (Figure 1). Continue reading "Hasbro's 52-Week High: Well, That Was Easy"

IBM Nearing 52-Week Highs

Big Blue – International Business Machines (IBM) – just delivered a duo of impressive back-to-back quarters with Wall Street applauding the results. This pair of consecutive quarters has elevated the stock and is now testing its 52-week high. These results solidify IBM’s long turn back to growth after posting revenue declines for 20-plus consecutive quarters. IBM has accomplished this nascent pivot back to growth via focusing on high-value faster-growing business segments while embracing the future of technology with AI and hybrid cloud architecture (i.e., Red Hat acquisition). Investors are ostensibly being appeased with the blended approach of M&A, realigning it business mix to current and future trends, maintaining its dividend payout and continuing to buy back shares until the Red Hat acquisition closes. IBM’s stock has been on an upward trend after investors decided to move past its initial displeasure of announcing its Red Hat acquisition when shares were sold-off and traded down to ~$108. IBM's executive leadership has set the growth and value narrative, and investors are quickly realizing the value that Red Hat brings to the table while washing away fears that IBM overpaid for the $34 billion acquisition. From the $108 dip, IBM has been in a position of strength and has broken out past the $150 level after its recent Q2 2019 earnings. Long-term imperatives are beginning to bear fruit in emerging high-value segments that has fundamentally changed its business mix while evolving its offerings to align with new age information technology demands. The Red Hat acquisition will augment its transition away from its dependence on legacy businesses to the future of hybrid cloud, artificial intelligence, and analytics. IBM presents a compelling long-term opportunity with a 4.3% dividend yield, P/E ratio of ~11, share buyback program, and continuously acquiring companies to drive the business into the future.

Q1 2019 + Q2 2019 Earnings – Growth Narrative

IBM reported Q2 earnings, and investors applauded the results by lifting the stock immediately post-earnings. IBM reported EPS of $2.81 and revenue of $19.61 billion, which was a -4.2% year-over-year decline while missing analysts’ targets. IBM shares quickly rose near its 52-week, breaking out to $150 per share. The company laid out its growth narrative and Red Hat acquisition catalysts. Continue reading "IBM Nearing 52-Week Highs"

Libra - Facebook's Cryptocurrency Implications

Facebook Inc. (FB) is making a bold move that stands to have vast implications across its business model and its user base via launching its cryptocurrency called Libra. Cryptocurrencies are still in a nascent stage in terms of adoption, acceptance, application, and full understanding of these virtual coins. The cryptocurrency market thus far has been speculative, volatile, and met with skepticism from users and governments alike. Despite the tumultuous albeit short history of cryptocurrencies, these alternative forms of currency have vast implications. These implications include potential disruption of central banks, destabilizing government-backed currencies, reshaping the financial transactions space (i.e., banks and credit cards) while displacing central database infrastructures via blockchain (i.e., banks, clearinghouses, credit card networks). Facebook’s Libra stands to address the unbanked (those without traditional bank accounts) segment of its user base in a major way. The President and Jerome Powell, along with many others in government have either voiced concerns or publically made clear that they’re not embracing this move by Facebook. Government officials are concerned about appropriate regulatory framework being in place considering the company’s past privacy scandals. Nonetheless, will this cryptocurrency bode well for Facebook moving forward?

What is Libra?

Libra will be dissimilar from Bitcoin in its underpinning blockchain technology and mining. Libra will not run on a decentralized disturbed blockchain ledger, and no mining of any additional coins will occur. The blockchain is permissioned and will be managed by the Libra Association, which is a membership organization that consists of 27 payment, technology, telecommunication, online marketplace, venture capital, and non-profits. Libra is planned to be launched sometime next year 2020. Libra will allegedly be backed by financial assets such as a basket of currencies and US Treasuries to circumvent volatility. Unlike Bitcoin, which isn’t backed by anything and can highly volatile, Libra’s value should be anchored and less variable. Each member of the Libra Association will add $10 million, so the cryptocurrency has full asset backing. The supply of Libra will expand and contract based on demand; if demand is high, then the association will purchase more of the underlying assets and create new Libra. If users want to cash out of the cryptocurrency, the association will pay them and destroy the equivalent amount of Libra. Continue reading "Libra - Facebook's Cryptocurrency Implications"

Financials: The Delicate Balance of Rates and Yield Curve

The financial cohort is in a difficult space as the broader economic backdrop continues to dictate whether these stocks can appreciate higher. A delicate balance between interest rates, Federal Reserve commentary, yield curve inversion, trade war, and concerns over a potential recession in late 2019 or early 2020 must be attained. A disruption in this complex web can lead to the financials breaking down as witnessed in Q4 2018 and in May of 2019. In Q4 2018 rates were increased by the Federal Reserve and sent the financials in a downward tailspin. In May 2019, a trifecta of a yield curve inversion, trade war concerns, and increased chatter about a potential recession on the horizon again sent the cohort lower. The broader market appreciated markedly in June, and the bank stocks participated in the rally. Coupled with renewed record share buybacks and increased dividend payouts stemming from successful stress tests, banks elevated higher on the news. Now, the market is anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next meeting, which may serve as another catalyst to propel some bank stocks to new 52-week highs.

The Q4 2018 Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell

The market-wide sell-off in the fourth quarter of 2018 was largely induced by the Federal Reserve and its alleged commitment to sequential interest rate increases into 2019. This was largely viewed as reckless and misguided while turning a blind eye to broader economic data-driven decision making about further interest rate hikes. The stock indices responded to the sequential interest rate hike stance with overwhelming negative sentiment, logging double-digit declines across the broader markets. Many market observers were questioning the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance as companies issued weakness in ancillary economic metrics (slowing global growth, strong U.S. dollar, trade war, government shutdown, weak housing numbers, retail weakness, auto sluggishness, and oil decline) as an indication that cracks in the economic cycle were materializing. The strong labor market and record low unemployment served as a basis to rationalize increasing rates to tame inflation; however, these aforementioned economic headwinds appeared to cause the Federal Reserve to pivot in its aggressive stance. As Chairman Jerome Powell began to issue a softer stance on future interest rate hikes, January saw very healthy stock market gains after being decimated for months prior. On January 30th, Jerome Powell issued language that the markets were craving to levitate higher as he left interest rates unchanged and exercised caution and patience as a path forward. Using data-driven decision making as a path forward was cheered by market participants as the broader indices popped for healthy gains on top of the already robust gains throughout January. Continue reading "Financials: The Delicate Balance of Rates and Yield Curve"