Author: Noah Kiedrowski

Facebook Is Inexpensive

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Facebook (FB) continues to demonstrate its ever-expanding and massive moat in the social media space. Facebook’s core social media platform, in combination with its other properties such as Instagram and WhatsApp, continue to grow while expanding margins and unlocking revenue verticals. Despite being faced with several public relations challenges over the past couple of years (i.e., Cambridge Analytica, coordinated boycotts, government inquiries into privacy, jumbled earnings calls, and anti-competitive testimonies), Facebook has triumphed to all-times as of late. Facebook had to contend with scaled back advertising spending amid the COVID-19 pandemic in conjunction with the public relation issues. Facebook continues to grow across all business segments, with its user base continuing to expand slowly. Facebook’s moat is undeniable, and any meaningful sell-off like the recent Fed-induced systemic weakness could provide an entry point for the long-term investor. Although near all-time highs, Facebook is inexpensive relative to its technology cohort.

Advertising Boycotts Falter

Facebook faced a very public onslaught of companies joining an advertising boycott across its social media platforms. However, its latest earnings reports suggest that this effort may have been largely symbolic and effectively inconsequential to its revenue and growth numbers. The advertising boycott had grown to roughly a thousand groups and multinational companies. This presented a unique challenge in which the company remediated and diverted more spending to compliance/security aspects which had already swelled post-Cambridge Analytica, and other platform vulnerabilities were exposed. The magnitude of this boycott seems to have been an inconsequential influence on the stock price. This public relations challenge was managed and posed minimal risk to the company’s valuation moving forward. Continue reading "Facebook Is Inexpensive" →

Disney - Riding The Post Pandemic Consumer Wave

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Disney (DIS) is in the sweet spot to capitalize on the pent-up post-pandemic consumer wave of travel and spending. Disney rolled out its wildly successful array of streaming initiatives that catered to the stay-at-home economy during the pandemic. These streaming efforts have transformed Disney's business model, which will be further bolstered by its legacy businesses as the prospects of the world economy continue to improve and reopen. Taken together, Disney is set to benefit across the board with its streaming initiatives firing on all cylinders and theme parks coming back online. The company has been posting phenomenal streaming numbers that have negated the negative COVID-19 impact on its theme parks. This streaming-specific narrative will change as the theme park revenue comes back online and flows into the company's earnings. As a result, Disney presents a compelling buy for long-term investors as its legacy business segments get back on track in the latter part of 2021 in conjunction with its wildly successful streaming initiatives.

Durable Streaming Revenue and Theme Parks

Disney has forecasted that its Disney+ streaming platform will have up to 260 million subscribers by 2040. Even more, advertising revenue for the upcoming fall television season rose by "double-digits" from the levels of 2019 before the global pandemic, per Bob Chapek. As a result, about 40% of sales during the "upfront" sales period went to streaming or digital ads, Chapek said at Credit Suisse's virtual Communications Conference. Continue reading "Disney - Riding The Post Pandemic Consumer Wave" →

The Inevitable Rise In Rates

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Market Scare

A string of robust Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings spooked the markets as a harbinger for the inevitable rise in interest rates. As investors grapple with the prospect of downstream rate increases, pockets of vulnerabilities throughout the market have been exposed. The overall markets have been on a blistering bull run since the November 2020 presidential election cycle. The overall markets as assessed by any historical measure have reached stretched valuations with record risk appetite. As real inflation enters the fray, these frothy markets will come under pressure and possibly derail this raging bull market. Although rising rates may introduce some systemic risk, the financial cohort is poised to go higher. The confluence of rising rates, post-pandemic economic rebound, financially strong balance sheets, and a robust housing market will be tailwinds for the big banks.

Financials

The prospect of rising interest rates coupled with fantastic earnings have propelled bank stocks to all-high highs. Citigroup (C), JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS) have appreciated to all-time highs. Rising interest rates in combination with the highly disruptive COVID-19 backdrop abating has served as the foundation for this move higher. The big banks responded and evolved in the face of COVID-19 to the real possibility of widespread loan defaults, liquidity issues, ballooning credit card debt, and stressed mortgages. To exacerbate these COVID-19 impacts, interest rates, Federal Reserve actions, yield curve inversion, and liquidity heavily weighed on the sector. Continue reading "The Inevitable Rise In Rates" →

Tech Earnings On Tap - Priced For Perfection?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Tech stocks continue to appreciate regardless of any ebb and flow in the COVID-19 backdrop or the prospect of rising interest rates. Albeit there was a minor sell-off in late February as a function of rising interest rates that has been quickly erased. Tech underpins the stay-at-home economy and the so-called back-to-normal economy. And now more than ever, technology serves as an integral part of every slice of the economy. These stocks have remained strong despite the massive rotation into value stocks throughout 2021. Considering many of these names have appreciated since their February lows and breaking through their 52-week highs, these large-cap tech companies are priced for perfection heading into earnings. Stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and the broader index Powershares (QQQ) have appreciated double digits over a two-week period as we head into earnings.

The Value Rotation and Roaring Tech

The market has witnessed a massive sea change as the large-scale vaccination efforts in the US is coming to fruition. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have rallied to all-time highs while recovery and value names have recaptured more of their lost market capitalization due to COVID-19. Meanwhile, many technology stocks that powered the market higher in the initial stages of this post-COVID-19 rally have stalled out early in 2021 to now rip higher as well. Once the value rotation began, many high-quality technology names fell from their highs and have traded sideways since their highs back in September. Now tech participation has been a major driver to propel the markets even higher and to even more lofty levels. Continue reading "Tech Earnings On Tap - Priced For Perfection?" →

Stock Market: What Happens When Rates Rise?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

The broader indices have been in a blistering bull market for a year straight, only accelerating from November 2020 into April 2021. The rally has been largely uninterrupted, with minor blips in September and October of 2020 before reaching new all-time highs after new all-time highs by mid-April. The initial rally was narrowly focused on technology and the stay-at-home economy stocks. With the improving vaccine prospects, November saw a sea change with broad market participation with value stocks breaking out with huge moves to the upside. To boot, Washington's massive stimulus is being priced into the markets via fiscal and monetary stimulus. All three major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones) are at all-time highs and continue to break into uncharted territory in what seems like a daily basis.

Stocks are overbought and at extreme valuations, as measured by any historical metric (P/E ratio, Shiller P/E ratio, Buffet Indicator, Put/Call Ratio, and percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average) or technical metric (Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength Index - RSI). Valuations are stretched across the board, with the major averages at all-time highs and far above pre-pandemic levels. A rise in rates due to inflation could be lurking in the shadows of this frothy market.

If/When Inflation Hits

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to push higher, The Federal Reserve may be compelled to entertain the idea of raising rates finally. Although interest rate risk disproportionally impacts fixed-income investments such as bonds and annuities, stocks will undoubtedly be impacted as well. This is especially true for highly leveraged companies such as tech and super-charged growth companies. Even the prospect of higher rates hit the Nasdaq in March for a sharp decline, albeit that decline was quickly erased. This is a case in point of how quickly the markets can turn negative with the hint of rising rates which may be exacerbated in an already frothy market. Continue reading "Stock Market: What Happens When Rates Rise?" →