Author: Matt Thalman

Ride the Crypto Dip with this Bitcoin ETF

Posted on by Matt Thalman

In late June, the ProShares Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) began trading. BITI is the first inverse or ‘short’ Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the US. The purpose of this ETF is to give investors a way to profit if the price of Bitcoin falls.

The fund didn’t seem to be well received the first day it was available to investors, but in just its first nine days of trading, it grew its assets enough to make it the second-largest Bitcoin-focused ETF listed in the US. The largest is ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which has over $680 million in assets while BITI has just around $59 million in assets under management.

There is really nothing super special about BITI other than the fact that it is the first time investors can short Bitcoin with an exchange-traded product specifically designed to do just that task. However, the timing of BITI being released on the market is interesting, to say the least.

First, Bitcoin just wrapped up its worst month in the 12 years that it has been traded on exchanges. Yes, you read that correctly. June 2022 was the worst month Bitcoin has had in 12 years. Bitcoin lost 38% of its value in June. Let that sink in.

Since Bitcoin peaked in November of 2021 at $69,000, the cryptocurrency is now down around 71%. (This is not the worst decline Bitcoin has had; in 2018 during the last ‘crypto winter’ Bitcoin lost more than 80% of its value.

Furthermore, a recent report about Bank of America’s internal customer data shows that the number of active crypto users has dropped by 50%, from 1 million in November 2021, to below 500,000 in May 2022.

The price of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies has been crushed lately, but so has the number of active users. These two numbers are likely interconnected, but also show that the public's interest in Bitcoin, and perhaps even other cryptocurrencies, is waning.

And lastly, the SEC just denied the application to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin ETF. Many believe that if and when the SEC allows a spot Bitcoin ETF, new investors will flood the markets since many believe the structure of a spot ETF is much better than a futures-based ETF.

This leads us back to the idea that the timing for the Bitcoin Short ETF was interesting, or just even straight bad. Now granted, ProShares filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to offer this Bitcoin short ETF back in February 2022, but that doesn’t help the fact that it didn’t hit the market until after a lot of bad news and low prices have hit Bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency industry.

If ProShares had come to market with the Bitcoin short ETF just a few months or even weeks prior, investors could have caught a wave of bad industry-wide news, like the collapse of a stablecoin and a number of crypto firms falling into financial troubles, needing cash infusions or announcing layoffs.

With Bitcoin down 71% from its peak, or 38% in just June alone, investors have to be asking themselves if the world's largest cryptocurrency has fallen too fast and/or too far.

How much more room does Bitcoin have to go? From $20k a coin to $10k? Maybe even $5k? Or have we seen the bottom at $17k?

It is hard to say where Bitcoin goes from here, especially in the short term. But it isn’t very easy to get short or go long an investment after it has already made a big move in that direction, such as getting short after it's already down 38% in a month and 71% since November.

With that all said, beggars can’t be choosers. We didn’t have a short Bitcoin ETF before, and now we do. So, while the timing may not have been ideal, it is good to know that some investors are already taking advantage of this opportunity.

But, more importantly for me, I like knowing that I now have a viable option to short Bitcoin if and/or when I may find the opportunity to do so.

Matt Thalman
INO.com Contributor
Follow me on Twitter @mthalman5513

Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Backdoor Marijuana Investment Play

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), a company that is best known for Scotts branded products like fertilizers and grass seeds, is also a backdoor marijuana investment play.

Most marijuana investors know this, but they may not fully understand how Scotts is involved in the marijuana industry and why that could make Scotts slightly more of a risky investment than some people believe it to be.

Scotts Miracle-Gro is a very well-known business and it has a good reputation. However, its core business is not one that is typically booming.

Over the past ten years, prior to 2020, Scotts average sales grew just 2%. This shouldn’t bee much of a surprise considering the business the company is in. Furthermore, the average 2% sales growth could in many years be contributed to nothing more than price increases.

Then came 2020, when people where stuck at home, looking at their poorly maintained lawns and starting gardens. Due to increased demand, likely because of pandemic-related changes to people’s lives, Scotts' annual sales increased by 24%.

Company management and analysts all believe that most of the people who took up gardening or did decide to improve their yard, will continue to stick with Scotts and their new hobby.

With that said, analysts are only expecting Scotts' sales growth to be in the 2-4% annual growth range during the coming years. Not the kind of growth you may expect from a high-flying marijuana stock.

Scotts has exposure to the marijuana industry through its fertilizers and the basic equipment needed to set up a marijuana farm.

Back in 2014, Scotts formed the Hawthorne Gardening Company, which sells products used by cannabis growers. Then in 2015, Hawthorne bought General Hydroponics, a 35-year-old liquid nutrient producer, of which its products are considered the gold standard by many marijuana farmers.

While the Hawthorne Gardening Company does sell fertilizer, due to its acquisition of General Hydroponics, the growth in the division comes from new marijuana growing facilities being opened.

So as the pace of legalization of marijuana in US States and major countries around the world slowly diminished, the need for new hydroponic growing equipment that Hawthorne sells also began to drop.

More recently the marijuana industry has been in an ‘oversupply’ situation. This not only nearly stopped all sales from Hawthorne, but it also hurt Scotts' sales figures. With annual sales growth dropping from 24% to a more expected 2-4%, Scotts' stock price has taken a massive hit, falling from a 52-week high of $193.50 down to currently trading in the low $80 range.

Some investors argue that now is the time to buy SMG because of the low valuation, decent dividend and potential for the marijuana industry to make another move forward.

For that to happen, we will need to see one of two things to occur:
1. A massive increase in marijuana usage in the states that it is legal, or
2. New states in the US or countries around the world open their doors to the marijuana industry.

Either of these situations would increase demand for marijuana, thus new grow houses would need to be built and supplied so they can begin growing marijuana. Without either happening, Scotts' Hawthorne business will continue to produce just mediocre numbers.

Some investors believe that SMG is undervalued, and that very well may be true. If the marijuana industry continues to grow in the future and we see more and more US States and countries around the world legalize the substance, then Scotts' Hawthorne division will perform better, helping push the SMG stock price higher again.

But there are two problems investors face while they wait for legalization to occur.

First is that SMG's management has reportedly been considering spinning off the Hawthorne business, and thus their whole marijuana industry connection. This would be force SMG investors to consider whether or not they owned SMG for the marijuana play. Analysts believe that the growth will largely come from the Hawthorne side of the business, and thus spinning it off would allow investors to reap the greatest benefits since it will no longer be ‘held back’ by the Scotts side of the business.

The second issue investors will be facing is simply time. The amount of time that they will have to wait for the new laws to be passed. Investors need to consider the opportunity cost of waiting a long time. In the past, in the US, the legalization cycle has taken a few years. We have a few new states all at once and then nothing for a few years. So, it may be a few more years before we see another big demand surge for Hawthorne’s products.

Some analysts will agree that SMG is a good buy with or without Hawthorne and that it is even worth holding, as long as Hawthorne is still a subsidiary, while you wait for new states to legalize marijuana. But that is a decision each investors needs to consider individually especially since SMG has shown us a very good example of a boom-and-bust business just over the past few years. This has been evident in the SMG stock price peaking at $244 per share back in March of 2021 and the stock now trading at just over $80.

Matt Thalman
INO.com Contributor
Follow me on Twitter @mthalman5513

Disclosure: This contributor did not hold a position in any investment mentioned above at the time this blog post was published. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

Stay-At-Home Stocks Still Have Life

Posted on by Matt Thalman

The Covid-19 pandemic has changed our world and lives in ways we never thought were possible before the global shutdown. One of the biggest changes was how we work and, more specifically, where we work.

I, for one, have worked from home for about a decade. At first, it was a big change that took some time to get used to, particularly the freedom of minimal oversight. But that can also be bad due to the self-control it takes to accomplish your work. Another challenge working from home is the self-imposed isolation or lack of in-person human interaction. While this isolation can help reduce distractions, it can also lower overall happiness and mental health.

At the beginning of the pandemic, nearly every friend I spoke to said they "loved" working from home - no more commute, no boss looking over their shoulder, and no more small talk with unlikeable co-workers. A few months in, more than half of the same people who said they loved working from home had started to say that they were "over it" and wanted to return to the office a few days a week.

Now, two years later, we are seeing a lot of different work arrangements. We have a group of people who have fully embraced the remote work life. Then there are the hybrid workers, in the office 2 or 3 days a week and work from home the rest. Finally, we have the office lovers ready and willing to be back full-time.

A January 2022 survey reported the preferences of people who can perform most of their job duties report. Of that group, 60% of people wanted to either work from home full-time or at least some of the time. 22% said they rarely or never wanted to work remotely. Furthermore, 64% said remote work made it easier to balance work and personal life, while 60% said they feel less connected to co-workers when they worked from remote offices. Continue reading "Stay-At-Home Stocks Still Have Life" →

Tesla (TSLA) Gets Booted from the ESG Index

Posted on by Matt Thalman

On May 2nd, the S&P 500 removed Tesla (TSLA) from its ESG Index, which is short for environmental, social, and governance. In recent years ESG investing has grown in popularity as more and more investors push for companies to treat the environment and their stakeholders to a higher standard. But, Tesla, a company that many people would point to as the poster child of an environmentally-friendly company, is no longer on the S&P 500's list of companies that are considered environmentally friendly.

If you are confused, you are not alone. Let's take a deeper look at this change and how it could affect your investments.

The idea behind ESG investing is that only companies promoting environmental sustainability, low carbon emissions, green energy initiatives, and good waste management would meet the environmental sustainability aspect of ESG investing. However, the S&P 500 said that Tesla's "lack of low-carbon strategy" and "codes of business conduct" heavily factored into the decision. The S&P said that Tesla's factories produced very high levels of pollutants. Tesla ranked 22nd on last year's Toxic 100 Air Polluters Index, a list compiled by U-Mass Amherst Political Economy Research Institute. For context, ExxonMobil ranked 26th on that same list last year. Continue reading "Tesla (TSLA) Gets Booted from the ESG Index" →

EU Cuts Off Russian Oil Making These ETFs Top Buys

Posted on by Matt Thalman

When the European Union voted to cut off Russian crude on May 31st, it was essentially a green light to buy oil stocks and, thus, a number of oil-focused ETFs. But before we dig into a few options that you should look at, let's talk about why this move is good for the oil industry and not necessarily your wallet.

The European Union voted to ban nearly all Russian oil from entering Europe. The details of the agreement essentially cut Russian oil imports into Europe by 90% over the next six months. The 27-country bloc relies on Russian oil for roughly 25% of what they consume. The ban directly applies to Russian oil that is delivered by sea, which means landlocked countries and Hungary, which receive the oil via pipelines, will still be permitted to access the commodity.

The goal of these sanctions is to cripple the Russian economy and force them to stop the war in Ukraine; however, Russia has already stated that they have other buyers of their oil in Asia, particularly China and India. Many believe Russia will be able to sell its oil to other countries but at a discount. Which will hurt Russia but may not have as much of an effect as the EU and other allied countries would like to see. Continue reading "EU Cuts Off Russian Oil Making These ETFs Top Buys" →