Author: Gary Tanashian

Gold Stock Launch In The Books; What's Next

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

You may know me as the…

gold

…guy.

The guy using the planets of an imaginary gold sector Macrocosm with proper fundamentals that are decidedly not imaginary but rather, are necessary to call a real bull phase or even bull market. By managing a strict set of macro and sector fundamental inputs (to the sound of crickets and little else in the sector) NFTRH and its subscribers had a front row seat to the now obvious gold mining launch as first the fundamentals came in line, followed by the technicals.

The reason this needs to be highlighted is because there is a popular Elliott Wave analyst out there * (among a few others) talking about how it’s all in the wave counts (unless they are revised, as often happens with EW) or other technicals, and fundamentals don’t matter. As if the answer is all technical and sentiment based. Well, those two things are important, but please. As happened in dramatic fashion when we became super bullish in Q4 2008, the fundamentals kicked in first and gave a green light to taking technical signals more seriously along the way. Look, I am a TA too, but The Men Who Stare at Charts exclusively are pitching only half the story. Continue reading "Gold Stock Launch In The Books; What's Next" →

Gold Miners Waiting On This Chart

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. We’ll do that in NFTRH this weekend, along with the usual individual miners. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the undervaluation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental undervaluation.

gold crb ratio

But on the macro picture, do you think that maybe gold stocks would benefit if gold manages to turn up vs. the US stock market? This chart appears to hold the key. HUI has been in a beautiful correlation to Gold/SPX since the 2011 top. To this point, the ratio has not turned up but you can see why I harp so much on the need for Au/SPX to get in gear. If it does, and joins Au/CRB and others, hang on to your hats and prepare for some upside targeting beyond the bounces of the last few years. We’d then go from identifying value mode to acquiring targets mode. Continue reading "Gold Miners Waiting On This Chart" →

Gold Stock "Launch" Is In Line With Fundamentals

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

I make the point in the title because the real fundamentals that matter for the gold stock sector must be in line at the beginning of a real bull phase or bull market for the sector. I make that point with the example of Q1 2016, when a very powerful gold stock “launch” erupted but in Q2 of that year we (NFTRH) were already advising a degrading of those fundamentals. A public article I wrote referenced this on May 30, 2016.

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode

What had happened in 2016 was that gold bottomed first, followed by the miners and silver. But then the whole raft of cyclical assets (commodities, stocks, etc.) bottomed and turned up. A cyclical party soon regenerated and the counter-cyclical gold stock sector was sent back to the hell it came from.

So again let’s take a look at our visual that roughly represents the correct macro backdrop for a bullish fundamental view on gold stocks. The larger the planet, the more important the fundamental aspect. Gold/Commodities should be a somewhat larger planet but work with me here. 🙂

Add in the important component of the Fed and its increasing odds of 2019 rate cuts and well, you’ve got the right backdrop for an undervalued sector (as we’ve been noting for months in NFTRH using unique comparisons of the gold/commodities and gold/oil ratios to the HUI index) to finally gain traction in the eyes of the wider investment community.

Hence we noted the launch in this NFTRH subscriber update (now public) on June 3rd. Check out the entire post, but below is an excerpted bit. Continue reading "Gold Stock "Launch" Is In Line With Fundamentals" →

You Have To Invite The Vampire Into Your House

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus in the USA and its Central Bank.

You see, the Federal Reserve inflates money supplies as a matter of doing business, which is why I noted so strenuously in Q4 2018 that Jerome Powell’s then-hawkish stance in the face of a declining stock market made perfect sense… because the 30 year Treasury bond was not bullish; it was bearish and getting more so under the pressure of rising inflation expectations.

But now as we noted the other day the inflated Sub is losing pressure. As we noted before that Goldilocks is being threatened. Here are the updated ‘inflation gauges’ from that post, continuing to lose pressure.

Q4 2018

But in Q4 the Fed had a threat if its own to deal with as the repercussions of its previous inflationary operations could be exposed to the light of day by the breakout through the Continuum’s limiter if it were not arrested promptly. The orange arrow on the chart below shows the point of concern for the Fed. Continue reading "You Have To Invite The Vampire Into Your House" →

The Inflated Sub Is Losing Pressure

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The charts are super interesting to look at. How quickly things turn, as if on a dime.

tnx

2018 featured a break above the Continuum’s limiter and folks, you and I were not the only ones who saw that and uttered “ruh roh!”; the Fed was well aware of the inflationary implication. Continue reading "The Inflated Sub Is Losing Pressure" →