Author: Aibek Burabayev

Gold Takes Off, Silver To Follow?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

In the middle of May, I questioned if the Head & Shoulders pattern, that was detected in April was still intact. Most of you agreed that there was enough evidence to drop that bearish idea, moreover, the new Bull Flag pattern was spotted on the weekly master chart.

Besides that, one of the readers kindly enriched our view, noticing another bullish Cup & Handel pattern that supported the upside expectation.

Last Friday, the gold took off its upside journey as the Bull Flag was breached to the North as price finally moved beyond the $1300 handle and overcame the minor top established on the 14th of May. The targets were set before, let’s hope for the best!

But what about silver? Last time I wrote about it in January using experimental clones from history. This metal had an ugly chart structure as gold had a clearer one. But no matter how the market tries to confuse us sooner or later we will see the end anyway. Again silver has been a laggard behind gold, and the latter gives us a clue as it broke up the resistance.

Let’s see, in the chart below if we can find gold’s shining in the silver market. Continue reading "Gold Takes Off, Silver To Follow?" →

Are You Waiting Crude Oil At $20?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last month the crude oil futures hit the target much earlier than it was planned. When the target was reached, I started to think of a reversal to come as the overall structure of the chart implies it. This thought was based on the deep retracement of the price, the overall completion of the pullback, which hit the broken resistance, and not in the last place due to the 100% progress of the CD segment (CD=AB). I shared it with you along with the crucial downside triggers in the weekly chart of my earlier post.

Let’s see how you felt the market those days in the last ballot’s results below.

Crude Oil

You are just amazingly accurate in predicting the future! Again, the majority of you were absolutely right as crude oil futures established a new high of $66.60 beating the earlier top of $64.8 for almost two dollars. I am very grateful to all of you who read my posts here at INO.com and support my chart experiments with likes and votes.

Let’s move on as the weekly chart below shows that not only the new high was established. Continue reading "Are You Waiting Crude Oil At $20?" →

Bitcoin Duplicates Gold Chart

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

“It's not gods who make pots” as investors move the market, pushing the buttons and sending the orders to the marketplace. It’s clear that they tend to behave one way or another, and that’s why patterns exist and appear from time to time as “there is no new thing under the sun.” It doesn’t matter what the instrument is it, let it be a very old commodity or a new digital asset, it is people who “worship” it, make it valuable and move the price of it.

Bitcoin caught the hype again recently after a disastrous 2018 when it was just falling all way down. I would like to share with you an interesting similarity in the chart structure of “perpetual” gold and Bitcoin aka “new gold” to find out if this rally is a part of something bigger.

Do you think Bitcoin is a good investment?

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Let’s start from the monthly gold chart as it is a model for the Bitcoin chart. Continue reading "Bitcoin Duplicates Gold Chart" →

Gold Update: Calm Before Storm?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last month I spotted the reversal Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily gold chart and shared it with you. Let’s see how it played out.

I entered the replay mode on the chart below and deleted the bars that appeared after the previous post to show you what I was expecting from the Head & Shoulders pattern. I would like to add more educational annotations for you in this post.

Head & Shoulders pattern
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The previous annotations were switched to gray except the target level for the Head & Shoulders pattern. So, what I was expecting to appear on the chart? First of all, there should be a breakdown below the Neckline, which would confirm the pattern (short red down arrow). Usually, after the breakdown, the price retests broken Neckline (blue up arrow). Only then, the market continues its move in the direction of a target (long red down arrow). Continue reading "Gold Update: Calm Before Storm?" →

S&P 500: Drag & Drop?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last August I was thinking of the S&P 500 index and wondered if its uptrend had been exhausted on its way to the upside. The price was at the $2833 level, and it failed to break the earlier top of $2873. The RSI showed the Bearish divergence and the index started to drift lower. I thought it was a complex correction and another drop to hit the lower bound of the $2533-$2873 range was considered to be imminent. The majority of you supported this idea.

Let’s check the updated chart below to see what happened next.

Updated S&P Daily chart tailored in August 2018.

LLLL
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

As we can see from the chart above the idea itself was good as the price not only retested but just smashed the so-called “bottom” of the range. The actual CD segment, which initially was thought to be equal to AB segment, had reached the ratio of 1.75 exceeding the next most common after 1:1 ratio of 1.618 (Fibonacci ratio) amid the panic sell-off. The trigger, which was set on the downside of the blue uptrend, was right as the index didn’t look back until the very bottom after it fell out of that blue uptrend. That move was accurately confirmed with a breakdown of the 50 level on the RSI sub-chart. The predicted zigzag structure of the drop also appeared to be correct as it is natural market behavior when one market stage changes the other. And talking about where we were right, I also would like to show you the ballot results on the timing of the bottom of the drop. Continue reading "S&P 500: Drag & Drop?" →