Author: Aibek Burabayev

Gold Update: Is Half Enough?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Since my last major update in November, the gold futures price has increased by almost 12%. At that time, most readers had chosen the bullish target of $2,089, where the price would retest the all-time high.

The gold futures chart is due for an update as it has reached a significant point in the current retracement following its recent peak at $1,975.

Gold Futures Daily

Source: TradingView

The gold futures price had been steadily rising for three months from the start of November until the beginning of February, where it reached a top of $1,975.

However, the market was hit when the “Jobs Report Dropped A Bombshell On The Markets”, which caused a significant drop in the value of many assets, including gold.

The recent price action in gold futures has been notable, marked by a sudden drop of $100 at the beginning followed by a slower decline in pace as the price retraced almost 50% and hit $1,811 by the end of February.

The question is whether this loss of half of the preceding rally is enough to consider the current bounce as a reversal. Continue reading "Gold Update: Is Half Enough?" →

Alert In Two Major Cryptocurrencies

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

It is time to update the crypto charts as I spotted a strong alert in two major coins for you.

It is ironic that the signal comes from the same indicator that accurately predicted the rally of Bitcoin last November when the price was around $16k.

Bitcoin Daily

Source: TradingView

Indeed, the main coin has rallied for whopping 52% after the signal topping slightly above $25k. The previous peak of August 2022 at this level unexpectedly acted as a strong barrier that the price couldn’t overcome.

In my recent update last month I warned that “the bullish impulse should not fade until it touches the moving average around $27k to convince the trading community”.

Unfortunately for bulls, the rally has faded below the target. However, the majority of readers did not see this rally as a sign of a global market reversal.

This time, the same RSI indicator doesn’t confirm the most recent peak on the price chart as it shows a lower top. This is called a Bearish Divergence. Continue reading "Alert In Two Major Cryptocurrencies" →

Platinum Outshines Palladium, Yet Both Offer Opportunity

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Almost four years ago, I wrote about the supremacy of palladium over platinum, and we watched the Platinum/Palladium ratio fall below its long-term valley of 0.56 oz.

In contrast, today the Platinum/Palladium ratio is approaching a 4-year high of 0.7 oz, marking a doubling from its all-time low of 0.31 oz established in 2020.

Platinum-Palladium Ratio Monthly

Source: TradingView

On its way up, the ratio broke through a double barrier that included the 2001 valley of 0.56 oz and the horizontal resistance at the top of the range. There are no other barriers for the ratio until it reaches parity between the two metals, which will be a crucial resistance level.

This is because palladium was replaced with the cheaper platinum in the automobile industry due to palladium's abnormally expensive price.

It is estimated that the platinum substitution of palladium reached 340 koz in 2022, and it is predicted to increase to over 500 koz in 2023, more than twice the amount in 2021. Continue reading "Platinum Outshines Palladium, Yet Both Offer Opportunity" →

"Dr. Copper" Prescribes Gold

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The idea behind "Dr. Copper" is that copper is a reliable barometer of economic growth, as the demand for copper tends to rise when the global economy is expanding and fall when it's contracting.

Last December, I shared my bearish outlook for copper futures titled “Fed Fears Inflation, Copper Fears Hawkish Fed”. It was based on the long term map of downward move with a current pullback playing as a junction between large 2 legs down.

The majority of readers expressed a mildly bullish stance, with the belief that the price of $3 for copper futures should hold.

The second largest group had an ultra-bearish outlook, targeting a price of $1.25 during a potential Great Recession.

Let us see in the weekly chart below the updated map.

Copper Futures Weekly

Source: TradingView

The copper futures price stalled at the same level after an earlier attempt to push below the red trendline support failed. Continue reading ""Dr. Copper" Prescribes Gold" →

Jobs Report Dropped A Bombshell On The Markets

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The non-farm payrolls report released last Friday dropped a bombshell on the market, revealing the US economy added 517K jobs in January 2023, surpassing expectations of 185K and the highest since July 2022.

Growth was seen in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, government, retail trade, construction, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing. Despite tech layoffs and potential economic slowdown, the labor market remains tight, with November and December job numbers revised higher.

This was a real shocker that caused huge, unexpected waves of volatility in the markets. Let’s have a look at 1-day futures performance last Friday in the diagram below. It looks like a red sea with a small island covered in green grass.

1 Day Futures Performance

Chart courtesy: finviz.com

Gasoline, silver and platinum were the ultimate losers that day with massive losses of -5.3%, -5.2% and -5.1% respectively. Gold futures lost huge -2.8% as well. Palladium futures price plummeted -1.8%. Among metals, Copper futures were the most resilient at -1.5%. Continue reading "Jobs Report Dropped A Bombshell On The Markets" →