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Abenomics: From Faith to Failure

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Why the biggest monetary stimulus effort in the world did NOT stop deflation in its tracks

By Elliott Wave International

When Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012, he was regarded with the kind of reverence that politicians dream about. He was featured in a hit pop song ("Abeno Mix"), hailed as a "samurai warrior," and featured on the May 2013 The Economist cover as none other than Superman.

But in the two short years since, Abe as Superman has been struck down by the superpower-zapping force of economic kryptonite. On November 17, government reports confirmed that Japan's brief respite from a 20-year long entrenched deflation was over as the nation's 2nd & 3rd quarter GDP shrank 7.2% and 1.6% respectively.

In the words of a November 20, 2014 New York Times article: Continue reading "Abenomics: From Faith to Failure" →

Cyber Monday - 40% Off MarketClub

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Don't Let The Government Decide When You Retire

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By: Amy Calistri of Street Authority

I try not to be tempted by "click-baiting" headlines on the Internet. You know what I'm talking about -- the salacious, ridiculous, or shocking headlines that you click on, only to discover mundane articles that may or may not have anything to do with the headline.

But we all have our weaknesses; mine is information about retirement planning. This explains why I clicked on the U.S. News headline, "The Perils of Retirement at Age 65."

The article didn't provide me with many new insights. For instance, I already knew that even though you are eligible to start receiving Social Security retirement benefits at age 62, most people have to be older than 65 to receive "full" benefits.

What did surprise me were the comments people posted after reading the article. They fell into two general groups.

There was a group that couldn't bear the thought of working until the age of 65 and over: Continue reading "Don't Let The Government Decide When You Retire" →

Gold Is Setting Up For a Short

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By: Chris Wilkinson of Longleaftrading.com

The overall fundamental theme for gold is still bearish. With the dollar rallying and commodities being dollar denominated, all else being equal, the price of commodities should decrease. The market looks to be pricing in low inflation to come and gold is used as an inflationary hedge. This is a bearish fundamental factor.

What we saw last week was very opportunistic upward movement that is helping set up the much larger downward trend that I foresee coming. The cash injections from the ECB and China should be short lived as the market will once again see these central banking efforts will not have a large impact on global inflationary numbers. Let’s look at the charts to plan our trade.

Continue reading "Gold Is Setting Up For a Short" →

Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

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Since we were the only ones (so far as I could see) even talking about the Semiconductor equipment industry ramp up (and positive implications on US manufacturing) back in early 2013 I think we should continue to tend the sector and finish what we started.

Last month the SOX took a massive dive down to our noted long-term support area in a giant swoosh of hype (coming from the financial media by way of one company’s outlook) and emotion by way of stampeding herds trying to get out at all costs.  It was just a setup as the SOX resides at new recovery highs this weekend.

From my days in manufacturing (most of which were spent not directly participating in this sector) I remember the Semiconductor Book-to-Bill ratio (B2B) as a pretty heavily watched indicator among industry types.  From Semi.org:

“The SEMI Book-to-Bill Report provides a first look at the book-to-bill ratio for North American Headquartered Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers. The three-month average global bookings and billings are a strong indicator for trends in the worldwide semiconductor industry. SEMI follows the protocol established by the U.S. Department of Commerce in publishing our figures only on a three-month average basis. We do this in order to smooth out the natural volatility in bookings. This report is distributed monthly approximately three weeks after the close of each month. Categories covered include front-end (wafer processing/mask/reticle/wafer manufacturing/fab facilities) equipment and final manufacturing (assembly/packaging/test) equipment.”

On November 20 Semi.org published its most recent B2B data.  First their summary and then a table covering the May through October 2014 period. Continue reading "Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating" →