Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Wednesday, the 14th of September.
Can you handle the truth?
Like a lot of folks, I love good movies. One of my favorite movies is, "A Few Good Men" starring Jack Nicholson and Tom Cruise. I was thinking this morning about Jack Nicholson's famous line from the movie, which goes like this: "You can't handle the truth!”
Now here is the reality... A politician can spin the truth about his or her record, WHY? To get reelected, of course. A CEO of a company can spin sales projections to pump his stock up, WHY? So he can receive a bigger year end bonus. The pundits who appear on CNBC and Fox business news can spin markets any way they want, WHY? To benefit their own vested interests in a market.
WANT TO KNOW THE TRUTH?
This is what I really like about the marketplace: It tells you the truth! It literally is a no spin zone. When you examine the recent downturn in the equity markets, the market was telling you that it did not believe in the policies of this current administration. Similarly, when Ken Lay and Jeff Schilling at Enron were telling everybody how good business was, the market exposed the truth on that bunch of crooks by sending their stock into bankruptcy.
So can you, as a trader, handle the truth? Does your political bias or a particular view of a market get in the way of your trading?
When you use a non-biased, objective approach like MarketClub's Trade Triangles as your trading foundation, you will find you can sweep aside all of the spin and BS. All you have to do as a trader is listen to the real truth, and that is which direction is the trend in the market.
Now, let's go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 75
The battle continues between the Bulls and the Bears as we have entered into a very tight trading range between 1140 on the downside and 1200 on the upside. Our views are based on our Trade Triangle technology and they continue to point to lower levels. The two important lows that were established on August 26th and again on September 6th at the 1140 area are important support for this market. Long-term traders should continue to be short or be out of the market completely, and in a cash position. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines waiting for either a buy or sell signal based on our Trade Triangle technology.
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SILVER (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
A move today over the $41.50 level in silver would turn our short term daily Trade Triangle positive. This market is not yet in an oversold condition and we may see further sideways action as the market begins to develop a base in which to rally. The MACD indicator is still in a negative mode and needs to make a turn before this market can go higher. The silver market continues to remain in a long term up trend. However, the short term daily Trade Triangle is negative. With a Chart Analysis Score of + 55 it would appear that this market is in a trading range. We want to watch this market very carefully over the next few days and are looking for an area to add to long positions. Intermediate and longer term traders should maintain long positions in this market with appropriate stops.
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GOLD (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
While the longer-term trend in gold is still positive, it would appear as though this market is catching its breath and developing a new range. We have seen this happen many times before in the gold market. Gold will have a move-up and then move sideways, in some cases for several months. Maybe gold trading around the $1,800 an ounce level represents a new paradigm in gold value. With a Chart Analysis Score of + 55 it would appear that the gold market is in a near-term trading range. Providing that our monthly and weekly trade triangles remain intact, we want to approach this market from the long side. The Williams % R is not yet in an oversold condition. The $1,850 to $1,900 levels are resistance for gold at the moment. Support comes in around the $1,800 area and extends all the way down to $1,750. Looking at the market, it would appear as though we may have put in a double top. This will only be confirmed with a close below the $1,750 level. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
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CRUDE OIL (OCTOBER)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
Yesterday, crude oil closed over the $90 a barrel level. Today is another story, as crude oil is down. This movement underscores the importance of knowing when there is a conflict between indicators. In this case, our monthly Trade Triangle which is the dominant trend indicator is pointing down, while our intermediate and daily Triangles are pointing up. This creates a Chart Analysis Score of + 60, indicating a trading range. Presently we would use a trading range type strategy to trade this market. Those tools would consist of the Williams % R indicator, the Donchian Trading Channels, and the Parabolic SAR indicator. Look for crude oil to continue to move in a sideways to lower manner.
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DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
We are very bullish on this index and expect it to move higher in the future. We are looking for this market to regroup above the 76.50 area and want to add to long positions. Longer-term, this market looks poised to move much higher and we would use pullbacks to the 76.60 level as a buying opportunity. This index is coming from a large energy field that is capable of carrying it much higher, possibly up to the 80.00 area. All of our Trade Triangles are currently positive.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 75
This index continues to vacillate in a trading range. We expect to be approaching an opportunity when this market is oversold to trade from the long side when we have the correct Trade Triangle signals. With a Chart Analysis Score of - 75, this index is trapped in a trading range and is possibly starting to build an energy field to move higher. We would recommend trading this market using the Williams % R indicator and the Donchian Trading Channels. Long-term traders should remain short this index. Intermediate and short term traders should be out of this market and on the sidelines at the present time.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you today at 3 pm! Have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Why not face the truth that Obama and his thugs are crushing the economy. If you read the US Constitution you fill realize I am right. Leave the Tea Party out of bashing since they only want less government and less interference. Remember, the fish stinks from the head and Obama is the head - he had all 3 branches of government under his control for the first 1/2 and all he did was pass ObamaScare and lie to the people. Oh, and give his friends money i.e. $500 million to Solyndra et al. By the way, that money went up in smoke. Let's call a spade a spade. Fish stinks from the head and Obama is the head of the US government so it lies on his shoulders. Meanwhile, the economy took longer than George Bush's 8 years to get to the recent turning point and oh, by the way, it also took Barny Frank and Chris Dodd pushing bad mortgages and many other factors from a multitude of greedy people to bring us to our knees. Now we must let the market hit bottom then inflate our way out. Until this happens, get used to the new status quo. Oh, another fact - the tea party are the MINORITY. The fish stinks from the head.
Thanks to the Republicans [aka] tea party, no one has confidence or trust in anything anymore, why, I think that they would take out thier own mothers if it meant the destruction of Obama. When u realize that they want to bring the U.S. to its knees, how on earth can one invest.If the market were to crash and a full blown depression were to follow, Repubs would really believe that God was on their side.
excellent, how did i get this e mail?
leandre
$100.00USD sez the market CRASHES in the next 30 days max.
O-one
B-bad
A-a$$
M-mistake
A-america
Best regards
lee
roger
the horse is in front of the cart, not behind it.
best regards
lee
Truth IS in the market. Gold, and my portfolio, is up 60% since I realized gold was the only place to protect my money from "hope & change."
The truthis told by the mkt. Gold is up 60% since I saw what "hope & change " was doing to this nation and it's currency.
Well said Roger... And VERY accurate..... Today is not to far from what Hoover gave us... And it began in 1980 and it reached a top with the idiocy of Cheney/Bush... Obama is FDR light.. Heart is in the right place, but the morons are trying to stop him on every turn... Bottom line, those Repubs have done it again and we are about to make a huge turn to the left, just as in 1932.... Consider 1932 to 1980... aye?
"When you examine the recent downturn in the equity markets, the market was telling you that it did not believe in the policies of this current administration." WAY too simple. Consumer confidence has been as much shaken, I think more, because very many are shrewd enough to see that the Republicans' Harding-Coolidge-Hoover policies and their commitment to seeing "Obama fail" at virtually all costs, is driving us straight towards a double dip recession. Watching the current crop of prospective Republican presidential candidates, can't inspire very much confidence either.
Come on Adams, the recent downturn in equity markets was all about the mess in Europe and the Tea Party who doesn't want to vote anything that could help the US economy and the american people. From your logic, you should also write that the rebound in stocks market in the last 3 days tells us that the market believes in the policies of the current administration. And more. If the market goes up for 2 months beginning at the end of september, I hope you will be writing that the market tells the truth about the current administration...
Adam,
This is so true, what you say, so true.
But I would agree to distortion from HFT and the invisible but notable PPT.
However, to an extent they are all reflected in the chart analysis.
Thank you,
John
THE TRUTH??!! In The Great Wall Street Casino????!!!!! I have for you some TERRIFIC Brooklyn Bridge Bonds that pay 10%/month for sale at an excellent low price. Please let me know soon because they are going VERY FAST.
Regards.
The truth? A crooked video poker machine is a better place to put money than these HFT-dominated "markets".
I'm considering subscribing and appreciate your posts, but am confused about the DOLLAR INDEX. You write "All of our Trade Triangles are currently positive.", but it appears that "Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative."
Thanks!
Bruce,
Indeed the daily Trade Triangle turned red today. However our weekly and monthly Trade Triangles are still green which means we are still long the DX. The Dollar Index uses the monthly GREEN AND RED “Trade Triangles” for trend and the weekly GREEN and RED “Trade Triangles” for timing.
Best,
Jeremy