Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract is currently trading at 15.22 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 15.00 higher by about 22 cents continuing its bullish momentum. Volatility is very low as the rest of the precious metals sector is having tremendous price swings daily as I am shocked that silver hasn't joined the party, but I think it will and if your patient enough I still think higher prices are ahead.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 14.93 level, and if you took the trade, I'm going to continue to keep the stop at 14.70 as we need to give this trade some room. Silver prices are trading right at their 20 and 100-day moving average, however for the bullish momentum to continue we have to break the June 21st high of 15.62 as that could happen on any given day, especially if the volatility increases.

I also have bullish recommendations in platinum, palladium, and copper, as demand has come back into this sector as the commodity markets have bottomed out my opinion as most of my recommendations have been to the long side which is the path of least resistance.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.6610 while currently trading at 2.6800 up nearly 200 points for the week still stuck in a 7-week consolidation.

I've been recommending a bullish position from around the 2.7130 level & if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the June 7th contract low at 2.6000 as an exit strategy as prices traded as low as 2.6120 earlier this week only then to rally. The chart structure is outstanding as I'm bullish the entire precious metals sector as the commodity markets, in general, will start to move higher as strong demand will begin to come back into these sectors.

If you did not take the original recommendation, I would still take the trade at today's price level as the risk would be around $2,000 per large contract or $1,000 per mini contract plus slippage & commission as the risk-reward is in your favor in my opinion.

Volatility in copper has undoubtedly increased this week as I think that situation will not go away anytime soon as historically speaking copper can have tremendous trends and I still think the trend is to the upside so stay long.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 811 an ounce while currently trading at 831 up $20 for the week still looking to break out above the critical July 1st high of 851 in my opinion. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 840 level, and if you took the trade, continue to place the stop loss at the contract low standing at 793 as an exit strategy.

The volatility in platinum is starting to increase as we have been stuck in a trading range over the last month or so, but I do think a breakout is looming as gold prices remain strong and are overpriced compared to platinum in my opinion.

Platinum prices are trading above their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average at 851, which stands at major resistance as well. The chart structure is excellent, and if you did not take the original trade, I would still recommend it at today's price level as the risk would be around $2,000 per contract plus slippage and commission.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Palladium Futures

Palladium futures in the September contract are currently trading at 1,540 after settling last Friday at 1,564 down about $24 for the trading week even though prices hit all-time highs in yesterday's trade before profit-taking ensued.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,388 level and if you took that trade place the stop loss at 1,523 on a hard basis only as I'm not willing to risk further price declines. I also have bullish recommendations in copper, platinum, and the silver market as I think this is one of the strongest sectors. Palladium prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains to the upside. However, if we are stopped out, we will move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.

Volatility in palladium has finally come alive as historically speaking this commodity can experience large price swings daily as this Friday afternoon prices are down about $20 so don't 2nd guess and continue to place the proper stop loss.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.42 a bushel while currently trading at 4.51 up about $0.09 for the trading week hitting a 2 week high. The WASDE crop report was released yesterday, and it was bearish, but prices rallied about $0.09 as they did not believe the number as carryover levels were raised coupled with the fact that production numbers for 2019 are estimated to be 13.875 billion bushels as that was up nearly 200 million bushels.

Corn prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher as the primary focus now is weather and believe it or not certain areas rain will be needed soon as I still think corn prices go higher, however I'm not involved as my only position in the grain market is a bullish soybean oil trade. I believe prices test the June 17th high of 4.73 and if that does occur as I've stated before I still think prices would trade above the $5 in the coming months ahead especially if hot and dry weather comes about.

The August crop report will show what the true acreage for corn and soybeans are and a much more accurate number on production as the volatility over the next 2 months is going to remain exceptionally high.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.36 a pound while currently trading at 12.31 down about 5 points for the trading week as this commodity has come to a crawl over the last several weeks.

I have been recommending a bullish position from the 12.32 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the contract low which was hit on May 23rd at 11.82 at the risk is 50 points or around $600 per contract plus slippage commission as the risk/reward is still in your favor. I think a lot of the agricultural markets have bottomed out as I would be surprised to see sugar break that critical level, but if it does occur it's time to move on and look at other markets.

For the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the June 14th high of 12.85 which is still only about 50 points away as that could happen on any given day as sugars volatility will start to increase as I don't see this slow situation lasting too much longer.

Sugar prices are now trading slightly below their 20 and 100-day moving average as that could change on any given day so continue to play this to the upside and see what next week's trade brings.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 8.94 a bushel while currently trading at 9.18 up nearly $0.25 for the trading week. The WASDE crop report was released yesterday showing that production numbers dropped 305 million bushels with an estimation of final numbers around 3.845 billion bushels while anecdotally speaking the soybeans planted in the area where I live still are only about an inch big as they are way behind schedule.

I have a bullish soybean oil trade, but I do think soybean prices are going higher as well, but I will wait for the chart structure to improve therefore the risk/reward would be more in your favor. Soybean prices are now trading right at their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher to mixed as we await the highly anticipated August crop report as that will actually show more precise numbers.

Traders are keeping a close eye on weather conditions as we have turned warm and dry as this crop is way behind schedule. Carryover levels have also dropped 250 million bushels down to 795, however historically speaking that is still very large, but at least the fundamental situation for soybeans is starting to change which is a terrific thing for the farming community.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Soybean Oil Futures

Soybean oil futures in the December contract is currently trading at 28.70 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 28.00 up 70 points for the trading week as prices have been stuck in the mud over the last several weeks.

I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 28.50 level as I am falling asleep on this trade. However, I will continue to place to stop loss under the contract low, which was hit on May 13th at 26.96 as an exit strategy.

Volatility is extraordinary low as the rest of the grain market has high volatility, but eventually, it will bleed into this market as well, so stay long and continue to place the proper stop loss.

Soybean oil prices are trading right at their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average which also stands at major resistance around the 29.20 level as I will be looking at adding more contracts if that situation is broken as I do think the grain market across the board is headed higher.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Trading Theory

Trade with the short term trend, as the saying goes in futures trading, the trend is your friend. But sometimes you will be a market that is trending higher and then has a false breakout to the upside and then suddenly sells off causing you a 2% loss on your equity and you say to yourself that was a bad trade and should I do something different on my next trade.

If it were up to me, I would continue to buy strength and sell weakness because in the long run commodity trading is about percentages of success in the long run, and if you go with the path of least resistance more often than not you will have the probabilities of success on your side.

I define a trend as a commodity hitting a 20-day high or low as a trendy market if the market is in a consolidation stay away from it and find something that is trending up or down and goes in that direction remembering the money management rules of 2% maximum loss if you are wrong.