Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,275 an ounce while currently trading at 1,268 down slightly for the trading week after hitting a six week high earlier this week. I'm currently not involved in this market with gold being incredibly choppy over the last six months. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher. Gold has had a significant rally over the last six weeks due to the U.S. dollar has hit a fresh 14 month low. That is definitely a fundamental bullish factor towards gold and the precious metals across the board. The United States added 209,000 jobs last month sending prices slightly lower in Friday's trade and the next major level of resistance is around the 1,300 level. That has to be broken to continue with its bullish momentum as the chart structure is poor at present due to the moves that went straight down and then straight up. I'm advising clients to look at other markets with better potential than gold at the current time.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract are currently trading at 16.65 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 16.69 unchanged for the week. Silver has the same chart formation as gold with a spike bottom on July 10th at 15.15 & now has rallied substantially all due to a very weak U.S. dollar. I am also not involved in silver as my only precious metal recommendation is a bullish copper position which is higher in today's trade, and it looks to me that the precious metals have bottomed out. I am bullish the commodity markets almost across the board, and I think the trends will continue to the upside, but wait for the chart structure to improve as the risk/reward is not your favor at present. Silver prices are trading above their 20-day, but still below their 100-day moving average telling you that this trend is mixed. Silver has also been incredibly choppy in 2017 with minimal trends, and I'm also advising clients to avoid silver at present and wait for the chart structure to improve which will take another couple of weeks.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 49.71 a barrel while currently trading at 49.06 down about $0.65 for the trading week and cracking the $50 level earlier this week continuing its bullish momentum. I'm currently not involved in this market, but if you do have a bullish position, you should place the stop loss under the 10-day low which in Monday's trade will be raised to 46.38. The chart structure will start to improve in next weeks trade. If you have read any of my previous blogs, you understand that I am bullish the commodity markets and I'm bearish the U.S. dollar. I think that will continue to push commodities higher as strong demand entered this market once again as prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the trend is to the upside with prices hitting eight-week highs. The United States economy is on a roll, and that is a good thing for commodity prices, and especially oil. That should increase demand as historically speaking prices are still relatively cheap, and I think there is room to run to the upside. I could be involved in a bullish position possibly in Monday trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.8750 a pound while currently trading at 2.8900 up 150 points for the trading week. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 2.71 level and if you took the trade place your stop loss at 2.7345 and in Tuesday's trade that will be raised to 2.8320 as the chart structure is turning out to be outstanding, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. Prices are still trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside while still trading higher by 100 points on Friday afternoon despite the fact that the U.S dollar is up 80 points which is usually negative for the precious metals. Silver and gold are sharply lower, and that just tells you that there is strong demand for copper as the U.S. stock market continues to hit all-time highs again this week. Once the chart structure improves, the risk/reward will be highly in your favor. I will be looking at adding more contracts as I do think 300 is in the cards relatively soon so keep a close eye on this market as adding to winners and getting out of losers is the key to success.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

U.S. Dollar Index Futures

The U.S. dollar is currently trading at 93.38 after settling last Friday at 93.11 and prices were up 67 points Friday due to a strong jobs report. It traded in a very non-volatile trading week still trading below its 20 and 100-day moving average hitting a fresh 14 month low in Wednesday's trade at 92.39. I'm currently not involved in this market. However, if you have read any of my previous blogs I am bearish the dollar and think we could crack the 90 level in the coming weeks ahead. The Trump administration wants a weak dollar to help spur exports and increase demand for our commodities in general which is a good thing for the economy in my opinion as a strong dollar over the last several years has pushed many sectors to yearly lows. The Euro was down 67 points Friday in early trading at 1.1826, and I think there's a possibility we could trade up to the 1.23 level in the coming weeks. The currency markets can become extremely trendy over the course of time just like what you're seeing occur here in 2017.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.88 a bushel while currently trading at 3.81 down about 7 cents for the trading week and now trading below its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the short-term trend is to the downside. The grain market was lower across the board due to extremely ideal weather conditions in the Midwestern part of the United States with Corn prices look to retest the June 23rd contract low of 3.74. I'm not involved in corn or the grain market because it's been extremely choppy with very poor chart structure and limited to the upside and the downside in my opinion. I'm advising clients to look at other commodities with higher potential. Traders are awaiting the August 10th USDA crop report which will certainly send volatility back into this market as expectations are around 14.2 billion bushels which is 1 billion less than we produced in 2016. However, that has already been factored into the price as we could be involved in this market after that report as the growing season is coming to an end. The 7/10 day weather forecast has very mild temperatures with abundant rain, and there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices up at present unless there is a surprise in that crop report.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the December contract, which is considered the new crop, is currently being grown in the southern part of the United States and settled in New York at 68.80 while currently trading at 70.42. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 69.55 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 67.76. The chart structure is outstanding at the present time. Cotton prices hit a seven week high while still trading above its 20-day moving average, but slightly below its 100-day which now stands at 70.67 and was almost breached in Friday's trading session. I still think cotton prices will head back up to the 72 range as traders await the highly anticipated USDA crop report which will be released on August 10th. The report should send volatility back into this market. The main reason why I recommended this trade is that the risk/reward was in your favor as the original risk was around $1,000 per contract plus slippage & commission. Cotton is a very large contract with high volatility, so continue to place this so the upside while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 14.37 a pound while currently trading at 14.12 down 25 points for the trading week and now trading below its 20 and 100-day moving average dropping about 100 points from Wednesday's high when prices breached the 15 level. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 14 level & if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 13.73. The chart structure is outstanding, and that was the main reason why I took the original trade. I am bullish the soft commodities and have several bullish recommendations at the present time. The harvest is underway in Brazil with large production numbers coming out of that country. However, that has already been factored into the price. The main culprit for today's lower trading action was the fact that the U.S. dollar was up 80 points putting pressure on many commodities today, but I do think that will be short-lived. If we are stopped out look at other trends that are beginning as we are hanging in there by the skin of our teeth.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 137.85 a pound while currently trading at 140.40 up about 250 points for the trading week in a relatively nonvolatile manner trading at levels we have not seen since late April. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 132 level and if you took the trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 129.35. The chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis starting next week which is a good thing to see. Therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered as prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average. This trend is higher despite the fact that the U.S. dollar was up 80 points on Friday afternoon, but it had very little impact on coffee prices. The harvest is in full swing in Brazil & should be wrapped up in the next several weeks as seasonality speaking this is a good thing as lows are generally created during this time frame. As I have talked about in previous blogs, I thought if prices could crack the major resistance level at 140 we could trade to the 150 level in the next couple of weeks so continue to play this to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING