Today is Apple's big day to show off all its shiny new toys, the only difference this year is that Apple doesn't seem to have any new surprise rabbits (products) in the hat.
You have to ask yourself, has Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) finally reached its zenith? As a longtime Apple fan and user of many of their products, I find that I am just not upgrading as fast as I once did. For example, I still carry an Apple 5S iPhone and not the new 6 or 6+ iPhone.
Research has shown that the smartphone market is leveling off and is not expected to grow as the market is saturated. The only growth area left in the phone market is the low-end, which is not an area that Apple will enter as it will cannibalize sales of its higher end iPhone. This is a huge concern for Apple, who derives two-thirds of its income from the iPhone. Logically if Apple has reached a saturation point in the smartphone market they cannot grow revenues. Then new revenues are going to have to come from a new whiz-bang product. In today's tech-driven world, that is going to be extremely difficult to do even for Apple.
That brings us to the Apple watch that I think was a big disappointment for the company. How many people have you seen wearing an Apple smart watch? I can count on one hand the number of people I've seen wearing an Apple smart watch. So I don't think Apple can count on the smart watch for growth.
Today, Apple is expected to unveil the new Apple TV. This product that was first introduced almost 8 years ago by Steve Jobs who called it a "hobby" has apparently had a major overhaul and is including voice commands and an app service. How successful this product will be remains to be seen as Apple has a lot of catching up to do with the competition in this category.
Unlike other events during the last five years the general market is in a totally different space and Apple shares are in a downtrend which, in my opinion changes the game dramatically. Technically speaking I suspect there will be many professional traders itching to short Apple and other stocks today on the markets strength.
Unless Apple comes out with something totally new and totally unexpected, I suspect that their shares will remain in a choppy trading range in the short term and lower longer-term.
In addition to analyzing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), I will also cover all the major indices, take a look at gold, crude oil and the euro and maybe a few surprise stocks.
Have a great trading day and don't get suckered into this market rally.
Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
