Hello traders and MarketClub members everywhere! Adam Hewison here and today's focus is gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO). It would appear that we are getting very close to seeing a significant reversal in the this market to the upside.
In this short video, I will be looking at a major trend line that has been in place since October 5, 2012. I will also be measuring some important 25 to 26 week cycles that are just kicking in. These cycles have been the driving force in gold over the past 12 months, so you need to pay attention to them.
Sometimes it's not obvious what drives prices and markets. It could be uncertainty or in gold's case, it could be the Ukraine, Syria, or the Dollar potentially losing its reserve status. Or, it could be something completely off the charts, no pun intended. We live in a world now where things can just show up out of the blue with no warning.
The one thing I like about technical analysis and charting is that price action, in my mind, is the most sum total of everyone's collective thinking.
Every market tends to swing too far on the downside and too high on the upside, only with technical analysis can you judge the perception of a market. Here at MarketClub, our goal has always been to try to pull out the fat part of the move and leave the other 10% for someone else. Remember, bulls and bears make money, but hogs get led to slaughter.
Every Success,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
I am usually looking at the technical argument for my decisions about trading, but I can't believe in it when it comes to PMs....for the simple reason that the "market" rationality in PM is totally in the hands of the Central Banks which will lie, cheat, and spend $millions, to keep us thinking that "Gold is a Relic", etc etc,etc...
Artificial scarcity and "Paper Gold" are the tools, and media flacks and cheerleaders use every chance to point to the "down trend" that is totally fabricated by JP Morgan, the FED and Treasury...we need a Forensic Audit of every large transaction, and public disclosure of the rigging going on in London.
Very surprised to see the spread trade come down this week. If backwardation in gold is to occur, the near futures price should eventually rise above the longest dated futures contract.
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.M14_Z19.E&t=l&a=0&w=1&v=d1
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=GCF14.CMX+Futures+Chain
Geez, so many negative comments.... Feeling it, that fast $80 up.
Too bad to be short gold.
Not short at all, Vic. Telling it like it is, those who have been dead wrong and are trying to make up for it like it never happened while leading those who followed into an absolute slaughter need to be called out.
Dear Adam,
As far as relevance of technical analysis is concerned, your each and every word is worthwhile, and so perfect and relative that entire matter is explained in a few lines.
First i must clear that i am not ruled-out upward movement from present juncture, and we may found even some further sizable gain in Gold.
However, before considering any major Trend change upside or reversal probability in Gold, we must wait for some more sustained and confirmed movement, because present bounce is within permissible technical movement range, and thinking about reversal is i think, quite early. and required to be obtain and sustain over and above some more reliable upper levels.
As for uncertainty? Come on. That old tired and trite useless platitude should have been buried long ago. Guess what. There is ALWAYS uncertainty. Always has been always will be. There are no sure things. Just 'cause there is, doesn't automatically mean that metals will outperform everything else, that ought to be abundantly obvious.
what you want to tell? just cant get an idea what you want to establish, or are you bull or bearish?
what u want to establish? are you bull or bear in Gold?
You're a guy always looking for a catalyst to propel gold, so as to have it neatly meet your world view. Markets are rarely that accomodative. There have been all sorts of catalysts that "should" have sent gold soaring, didn't happen. You know what they were and are. Here's a revelation perhaps. It's not always about a catalyst. Trying to time this and that on a low probability outcome such as Ukraine blowing up gets you in trouble much more than it pays off. If anything will get the metals going it's yes, the dollar crashing support, but more than that a simple realization the inflation cannot be hidden any longer.
A great rally fails to recover much of the damage you underwent and others who followed your calls on gold as well for nearly 4 years now. Trying to make up for it also by picking tops in the general market as some sort of revenge has merely added to it. History does indeed repeat.
What I really do not like in technical analysis is a firm believe that as asset or commodity have to go up or down because
RSI/ Ichimoku/ had shown something. 🙂 how about common sense? Do You really think that we need another crisis or political storm to watch gold price rush?
Regards,
Michal
Hello,
Technical analysis is not just simply a rsi or macd or just alike oscillators, and if you are asking about common sense (which is not often "Common" so far) technical analysis it self is a picture, just and only derived through that common sense.