In all the years I've been following the markets there comes a time like now, when geopolitics takes center stage. I am of course referring to the recent annexation of the Crimea by Putin. The question now is with a very tepid response from the US and the EU will Putin say to himself Crimea was easy I'll do the same thing with the Ukraine. With an approval rating of 80% back home in Russia, Putin and has little to worry about as he practically walks on water in the minds of most citizens.
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Every success in Q2 and beyond,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub
Niether Putin or Obama can act on thier own concerning the Ukraine.
Those shots are called by the insiders of the occult sects that control the governments of both nations, which many know about and many more suspect.
One man's opinion...
Europe and the West was gloating when Russia was a bastard case. Now that Putin has put Russia together Russian Ukrainians want the better life Russia offers rather then the hardships of Ukraine. Canadian Prime Minister Harper is unpopular for his poor economic policies and going for the 1 million Ukrainian voters no matter how much economic destruction his attitude will bring. Obama picks a good fight for the polls and Europe is lost and doesn't know which way to turn. I'm afraid if Putin looses it and respond harshly US, Canadian, European Companies and all markets will suffer greatly.
Give it a thought, guys. The political arena has so much to do with where the market goes. Gold and energy will go up if Putin decides to invade Ukraine. All the news media speaks of these days is the missing plane. I care about the results of these polls which illustrate how traders feel. Good job, Market Club!
You're quite right, Ginny, in your stance, as it's an axiom that the markets are primarily driven by greed and fear. These are emotions, not rational thought or discourse, which may be easier for some in their dealings w/life, but are neither a true representation of our daily lives nor how we interact w/the world.
The main reason only 1 in 4 traders are consistently able to earn profits is that the other three trade too much on emotions, fears and hopes, dreams and fantasies. While it may be a chore to sift through and analyse the news --especially the presstitutes of the USA's MSM, as Dr Paul Craig Roberts terms them-- it's how we come to evaluate our role in the world and how we will act in it.
The fact is that the US and Russia will continue to act in ways that affect all the markets in some way, and we need to stay as informed as we can so as not to lose our way.
There was a time oh 20 years ago, when your hero Roberts was not batsh--t nuts. That was before he became a propaganda mouthpiece for Tehran, a hero of the extreme far left as witnessed by his manifestos on "Counterpunch", a hero of the Sept. 11 conspiratists, a fema death camp conspiracy guy, and much more.
Guys like this, Lyndon LaRouche, even Glen Beck sometimes, are fodder for those who want for instance to see gold collapse back to $400, guys like Roberts are absolutely not helping the image of regular, normal precious metals investors who merely want a hedge for their families without the extraneous complete crap. Average people as in possible metals investors look at being associated sometimes even remotely with that kind of garbage and resoundingly go, NO THANKS. The Roberts-Raimondo-Lew Rockwell wing of "out there" conservatism has become the nexus where extremist fantasies of left and right converge into a toxic mixture of venomous lunacy.
On the other hand Ginny, most predicted 2-3 years ago when Greece came unglued, Europe was in a historic collapse, North Korea sunk a South Korean ship, Obama was re-elected, the Fed went full force into QE..... just for starters.... that "of course" these would combine for an incredible catalyst for gold, oil, hyperinflation etc. and a major US market collapse. If a perfect political crisis storm didn't have the effect everyone thought, then that should cause you pause about how effective politics and world events really are when it comes to predicting markets. There is an old saying, going back 100 years. Markets are discounting mechanisms, they are forward projecting, that is why charts and things like trade triangles are far more useful than watching the news, mainstream or otherwise that most use merely to match their own personal bias.
The market trade triangles work very well, I agree. The market is forward looking and forward projecting to a degree. Do you think the markets have already priced in a breakout of war between Russia and the Ukraine? I recall that it did not price in 9/11/2001.
Did the market price in the credit crisis in 2008? So many lost so much money when the market collapsed, fear took hold, and they sold out at the bottom. Did the market price in the housing bubble? The same thing happened to people when the housing market collapsed, losing what they thought were wise investments, real estate. Did the market price in Putin's takeover of Crimea? If you believe that Europe and the US is on a the great road to recovery, you are not paying attention. You are right in that one cannot and should just use the mainstream or other news media for all of their due diligence. Reading has been my best venue. And Adam has many intelligent comments to make about world affairs.
Do you realize that Putin could destroy the US currency if he chose to do so? Do you realize that right now he has the upper hand due to Russia's supply of fuel to Europe and closer ties to China? The global news is important and plays a big part in wise trading.
Also, note that deflation comes before hyperinflation. The Fed is much more concerned at this point with deflation. As someone with much more economic and historical knowledge than I said:
"Here is the progression which confirms the hyperinflationary direction.
1. Monetization of bad debts is the beginning-bailouts, car and home buying subsidies-buying all bad debts and FDIC insurance-nobody loses
2. Deflation of assets is the second stage-as people become fearful of investing and fearful banks invest in safe assets-like cash and treasuries
3. A rise in the value U.S. dollar will follow.....
4. Next is the collapse of the dollar when fear takes over and the dollars will immediately seek conversion to value
It is after #4 in the progression that the Federal Reserve will resort to printing money in greater quantity to meet their obligations. The fear is what causes the hyperinflation. The fear of holding dollars which are supposed to be a store of value. Businesses will demand cash and reject checks and credit cards before the hyperinflation takes hold."
You see most of this has started already. It has begun and yet the fear has not gripped the public yet. They have not recognized the deflationary head fake. When people do realize what is happening it will be too late to preserve your wealth or gather what you need to sustain you through the hyperinflationary time."
I agree with Melanie - I want Market related discussions on this site.
My question, Did the US invade first to affect a regime change? CIA fingerprints are all over Ukraine.
After decades of regime changes, are we headed toward a regime change bubble?
Someone is really, really obsessed with what has little to nothing to do with the rest of us. Especially when it comes to what we supposedly come on this site for, to learn how to trade better.
What is to follow in the Ukraine is very tragic for the country. After the demise of the Soviet Union Ukraine was in the best shape among all. It had the mightiest army, good agriculture, high tech industry, nuclear weapons, rockets etc. Look what it turned into in the short time of 23 years. Indeed, it had the bad menagement, which never was pro-Russian, by the way, sooner the contrary. The people had to react somehow against the powerty, depression, cultural degradation. The new leadership is no better. They will get our dollars and put them into their own pockets and then they will say, 'Good, give us more.' We are caught by the word of our mouth. Geographically, Ukraine lies in the economically unfavorable place. Her only hope lies in cooperation with Russia.
The radicals who helped the current junta to come to power are no more needed. The situation with them resembles the one with 'stormtroopers' of Mr. Roehm in Germany in the 30's. Mr. Hitler after coming to power had to deal away with the force that had brought him into power. Then Hitlerites killed in one night about 800 leaders of 'Brown Shirts'.
This prosess had already begun in the Ukraine. The difference is that Mr. Roehm with other leaders of the 'Brown Shirts' believed Mr. Hitler and the current leaders of the 'Right Sector' in the Ukraine do not believe the junta. The bad thing about any revolution is: Honest people make revolution, insolent bullies come to power, rascals and bastards consume results! Revolution always has beginning, revolution doesn't have an end! Interesting things are to follow!
BTW, there is new joke about Crimea (Krym - in Russian language):
Vladimirovitch calls to Husein: Hey Barak, do you know how do we call Alaska?
Husein: No, how?
Vladimirovitch: Ice-Krym (Ice-cream) 😀
Putin is NOT going to invade the Ukraine. Crimea wasn't annexed. Crimeans voted in referendum to rejoin the Russia (96%). Most of them (85%) are ethnic Russian. It was democratic process under OECD watchdog. Since 2004, after US made Orange revolution failed, they "invested" 5.000.000.000 USD for "democracy teaching" and "human rights" (This was publicly announced by Victoria Nuland - google it).
This is interview with Paul Graig Robers, former Assistant Treasury Secretary of the US Government. I recommend you to listen it http://www.ynterview.com/interview/paul-craig-roberts-for-third-world-war-will-be-again-blamed-germany
From my perspective of view, it's kind of fascinating how strong propaganda is imposed on ordinary US citizens.
Yes they did. There is no doubt at this juncture. But you did leave out the State department, EU, NATO,,and their secretly affiliated and funded NGOs as provocateurs and major players in the coup.
"They" meaning the US government and its allies through a myriad of operatives blanned, organized, recruited, funded, and incited hoodlums to trigger violence and destabilize the political structure. Their foolish and highly antagonistic and thankfully failed scheme to box in Russia luckily did not trigger a regional war.
Yes the CIA certainly did. There is no doubt at this juncture. But you did leave out the State department, EU, NATO,,and their secretly affiliated and funded NGOs as provocateurs and major players in the coup.
I think Putin will "invade" but he doesn't need to invade with the military. (That doesn't mean he won't - just look at his history.) He has a lot of other 'weapons' at his disposal:
Economic:
He can use dept to Russia and price of fuel. Read SQUEEZE. Unfortunately, I believe IMF aid will flow straight through to Russia, making sanctions a bit of a bad joke. The effective weapon for the west is to try to force down fuel prices as this provides 50% of Russian government income.
Ukraine bureaucrats will note with envy the increases in salaries and benefits he bestowed on their fellows in the Crimea since the takeover.
Political: There's a large Russian speaking portion of the population and a surprisingly large number of persons favored by the old guard (Russian). He can easily plant capitulation from within.
These solutions will take too much time on their own for a bully, so my vote is he'll force the issue with the military, probably after staging a "rescue" plea from supporters within the Ukraine to justify his actions.
I remember the same thing happening when Hitler started to expand Germany. He got the identical responses from the heads of nations then. I see no difference now. If he is not stopped immediately, we will have a similar experience with a possible WW III...which will be be worse than WW II. The longer it takes to respond, the longer it will take to end. This is a fact of history. There is an engraving on the top of the US Archives Building in Washington, D.C. ..."The Past is Prologue". Believe it !
Carl, you may wish to read what Patric says @ March 28, 2014 at 3:04 pm.
There's also the wisdom of the USA's greatest living conservative, Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Treasury Secretary of the US Government, who has excellent articles nearly every day on his website: http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/.
All best, Joseph
And.... he's also a 9-11 "truther", very anti semitic, and basically certifiable. Never mind that though, right?
Not sure I want to renew my service though I enjoy it, if the discussion topics and viewer comments are to continue turning into a platform for political topics and posts with links to offensive sites. I can get that at yahoo or a host of others.