Are the markets predicting an Obama win or a Romney win?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 5th of November.

Make no mistake about it, the markets will likely be quiet for today and tomorrow. When the eventual President is announced, perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday, the markets will decide which way they want to move.

Here's what the markets are telling us right now:

Equities: Mixed picture
Metals: Mixed picture
Dollar: Mixed picture
Crude Oil: Negative trend

With 75% of the markets we track in a mixed picture mode, our Trade Triangle technology is reflecting the statistical tie that the polls are currently suggesting.

Only after the election do we expect to see trends once again resume in the markets. Historically when a Democrat gets elected, the market tends to go down in November. When a Republican gets elected, stocks tend to move higher in the month of November.

Like myself, I am sure you may be suffering from election exhaustion and you would like to see this election cycle over. Only then can we can focus on the economics and trends in the markets.

Now, let's go to the markets and see what our Trade Triangles are indicating.

Have a great trading day and don't forget to vote!

Adam Hewison
Founder & President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com.

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28 thoughts on “Are the markets predicting an Obama win or a Romney win?”

  1. Welcome to the next down leg of the secular Bear Market. The explosive rally yesterday on rumors of a Romney win did not fool anyone who knew Dependency Nation would prevail. It should bounce at SP500 1378-80 for a while before heading on down.

  2. Short term I believe stocks will go up if Romney is elected. What scares me is this: Long term, over the next 4 years I think the economy is more in danger of a crash if Romney is in office.

    We are talking about multiple decade trends of massive government spending. Obama isn't to blame. He is just the latest president to do what all the others did in the past. More of the same means the same results, which is an eroding of our standard of living.

    I don't believe you can put the brakes on a trend of government spending over 4 or more decades and not expect there to be massive consequences. Ultra long term I think it's best for the U.S.A. to clean house but there will be pain along the way.

  4. I don't know if anyone can reverse what Obama has done the last 4 years. there is so much to fix b4 we start a new! God HELP us get out of this mess!

  5. Adam,

    Thanks for allowing the left-right wacko's to appear on your site. I come here for investment information, maybe I should be looking elsewhere.

    1. What's wack is for an investor not to attend to economic policy, but, as we see here, caring about it isn't enough.

      "If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about the answers." - Thomas Pynchon

  6. The 'fundamental' difference between the religious right and the taliban is that one group carries Republican campaign signs and the other carries AK47s.
    Freedom, Liberty, Equality and CHOICE - all come in the same ballot box!!!

    1. Please refrain from the glaringly and simply obvious. The somewhat subtle and mildly informative will do.

  8. I had a conversation with a neighbor of mine that was impressive. He said he knew many of his friends who where in business that were holding back on any business expansion or hiring until they see who will be our next President. He said that these guys distrust Obama so much, that they are holding up on new investment or building and will probably shelve these plans if Obama wins! He is usually a quiet, mild-mannered person but got red in the face and loud as he got worked up on the subject. At a loss for words, I could only shake his hand and say "Amen brother."

    1. Oh well...guess he'll be shelving his "investments, expansion and other things." Obama won... AGAIN!

      Amen Brother!

  11. how can any christian, anyone who loves our country, veteran, or service person vote for obama. always, watch what he does not what he says.

    1. Obama is the only choice for a left-wing Christian, like me! Check out the Red-State Jesus vs Blue-State Jesus on CNN's religious link that should be under my name. Peace.

    2. Women only get to Mormon heaven (okay - the private planet) IF invited by the man. REALLY. And these second class citizens should vote Romney?

      1. Beats the Jehovah's Witnesses' planet of fruit in sunny valleys that you need an invite to after the rain of fire.

      1. Valerie,
        Not sure if you were for or against.
        Women need to know there is nothing Romney could do (if elected) to either invalidate Row v. Wade, or keep you from your contraceptives. Those things must be done by Congress, or the Supreme Court.
        So, rest easy, no one is picking on women.
        BK

        1. Don't rest easy Valerie!
          Read "How Romney Would Treat Women" an Op-ed by Nicholas D. Kristof in the NY Times (there should be a link to it under my name).
          Romney would nominate more conservative justices for the Supreme Court, who if approved could overturn Roe v. Wade.
          From the article about his position against contraceptives:
          "His campaign Web site says he would 'eliminate Title X family planning funding.'
          ...
          As governor of Massachusetts, he vetoed a bill that would have given women who were raped access to emergency contraception. "

          1. Bruce and Bob K...gentlemen...thank you for the replies. To clarify...I was trying to be scarastic. Im a former Republican who is tired of all the false-uber-religious hypocrites who are sadly at times the most bigoted and least tolerant of anyone who is not just like them. The Repubs it seems have embraced a radical agenda that places it not far from the Taliban regarding womens rights and freedom for those who disagree with their narrow and personally-tailored beliefs...and yes Ive served in the military long enough to understand those concepts. There is no compassion or understanding for those who are raped until it happens to someone in their respective families MAYBE...these religious zealots should treat others as they wish to be treated...but it is far easier to judge and be "holier-than-thou". You would think that if you are against abortion...you would embrace FREE contraception. Maybe this wouldnt eliminate abortion but it would reduce it. Or better yet, those "in-all-cases" no abortion supporters...they should be taxed extra to help pay for adequate prenatal care and medical costs for the mother and baby in a difficult time. But rearly do hypocrites put their money where their mouth is. And that is truly sad!

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