Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 10th of August.
Yesterday we talked about how markets sometimes go from reality to fantasy, and clearly today's news from China was more a reality check for the markets. Logically, you cannot have a recession in Europe and the US economy barely limping along and have Chinese exports jump off the charts.
Europe and the United States are the principal customers for China to sell its goods. If Europe and the US are not buying because of economic conditions, how can China keep growing its economy at a record pace?
Today could mark the start of a reality check for the markets. How the markets close today will give us more clues as to whether or not the market is putting in a top or biding its time to move higher.
How the major markets closed last Friday: S&P 500 - $1,390.99, DOW - $13,906.17, NASDAQ - $2,967.15. Should we close below these levels today, we believe that the market could once again reflect reality and head lower.
We will also examine in detail how our Trade Triangles handled the moves in Research in Motion (RIMM) and J.C. Penny (JCP). Both of these stocks are on the move today for different reasons.
Now, let's analyze the major markets and stocks on the move using MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.
Click Here to view today's video
I think the markets are over extended as well as showing definite signs of exhaustion... upward momentum seems weak at best, volume seems to be contracting and the chart of the Dow seems to be forming a double/triple top. I personally expect to see a major reversal shortly... It would have already crashed (very clear double top early-mid March thru end of April) without QE carrot.
Al
I don't see the market making any big moves lower as long as the FED keeps dangling the QE carrot. I also expect this carrot to hang out there until at least oct/nov due to political pressure.