We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM an IB of Peregrine Finanial Group to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Busines, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show
Precious Metal Futures--- WOW--Gold finishes higher by nearly $60 dollars an ounce on European concerns while the precious metals today were sharply lower across the board early in the morning reacting to the chaos that's going on overseas in Europe with gold down $14 dollars at 1,550 an ounce possibly looking at retesting 1,530 level but then exploded higher by 58 dollars at 1,623 now breaking out above 1,600 while silver futures were down 42 cents at 27.32 in the July but then rallied sharply higher by 85 cents to trade at 28.56 contract looking to break below $27 to continue its bearish momentum or breakout above 29.05 to start a possible new bull trend.. The unemployment report came up this morning at 7:30 stating that the unemployment rate was 8.2% and that we had added 69,000 new jobs last month but the market took it as a negative basically due to the fact of the world wide slowdown or recession coming. Copper futures have broken all major support today down another 500 points currently at 331.50 a pound with the next major and critical support at 329 a pound and if it breaks that like a been stating in many blogs prior to this one I think copper prices could break 300 a pound in the next couple of weeks. I am extremely bearish the entire commodity and stock sector I think this slowdown in Europe is a lot worse than people are portraying and it's going to hit the assets such as stocks and commodities and look at the bond market hitting new all-time highs again and low all-time yield once again which is telling you something. Platinum futures are up 5 dollars after being down $16 in the July contract currently trading at 1,421 an ounce also making six month lows earlier on the perception of a slowdown and people taking risk off the table at this time.
Energy Futures--- Energy futures are sharply lower once again even before the unemployment report which came out at 7:30 this morning stating that the unemployment rate is 8.2% and that we added 68,000 new jobs which was disappointing sending the market sharply lower and traders are concerned about the European slowdown at this point with crude oil plunging down $3.50 a barrel in the July contract hitting new lows once again at 84.00 with an overhang of supply which is at a 22 year high in crude supplies, while unleaded gasoline is getting smoked this morning down 800 points at 2.64 gaining even more steam to the downside also creating new lows on a recession across the world causing commodities and stocks around the world to plunge today. Heating oil futures for the July contract are down 800 points also making fresh contract lows currently trading at 2.62 a gallon looking to go lower on waning demand and massive supplies. As I've stated in many blogs in the in the last four weeks I'm very bearish the commodity sector I think crude oil has a chance to go back down into the low 70s like it did in 2010 when the last crisis appeared as investors are unwilling to take risk and are taking money off the table at least in the short term until things settle down in Europe. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Trading is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites.
Grain Futures---The grain futures this afternoon traded in a very volatile and wild session with November soybeans finishing down nearly $.13 a bushel the close at 12.77 and traded as low as 12.45 earlier the trading session while July soybeans finished higher by $.13 blamed on old crop --new crop spreading. Corn futures for the July contract were up $.20 at one point only to sell off and finish unchanged while December corn finished down eight cents to close right around 5.14 a bushel blamed on cooler and wet weather here in the Midwest plus a pessimistic outlook for most commodities and stocks. Wheat futures plummeted once again down another 25 cents to close right around 6.18 a bushel and what’s been an absolute bloodbath to traders with prices going straight up one week and then straight down the next week as I have been advising for weeks now to stay away from wheat it is a terrible market at this point with absolutely no trend and in one of the choppiest markets I've ever witnessed in my entire trading career. Rough Rice futures were down another 14 cents to close around 14.08 in the July contract breaking out to new lows once again on renewed pessimism of the worldwide demand for rice and many other agricultural products. As I've stated in many previous blogs I am bearish the grain market and I am bearish the commodity sector and stocks as a whole because I think Europe is in a whole lot of trouble at this point and I believe demand for the grain market will slide dramatically, however the grains are entering a weather market if 95° comes every day with no rain then all bets are off because the price can definitely move higher due to a cut in production, but at this point in time the weather is absolutely fine and the trend is lower. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading.
Orange Juice Futures--- Orange juice futures this week traded in a pretty quiet range settling right around 111.25 in the July contract slightly lower this Friday afternoon in New York in a tight trading range still right near contract lows. The orange juice market the last several months has fallen out of bed due to lack of demand and a very good harvest with increasing supply but at these levels I think you are, squeezing blood out of a turnip and like I have suggested in previous blogs if you were short the orange juice market I am advising people to take profits and sit on the side-lines because I do think the easy money was made in the last couple weeks and I think choppiness is ahead. On June 12th there will be an orange juice crop report and that should dictate short term prices but at this time when markets are in a consolidation or a choppy pattern the best thing to do a sit on the side-lines and wait for another trend to develop.
Sugar Futures-- Sugar futures today hit another fresh contract low in the July contract currently trading around 19.16 a pound and actually at one point broke the $.19 cent level only to rally slightly towards the closing bell. As I've stated in many previous blogs I am very bearish the soft commodities and every soft commodity today hit a new contract low and in my opinion I believe the trends are even heading lower in the short term due to lack of demand and now a Chinese and European slowdown which is not good news for luxury items such as the softs. In July of 2010 sugar prices fell as low as 15.50 pound and I believe we are headed down to that level in the next month or so while sugar is used as a bio diesel lower corn and lower crude oil prices are definitely putting pressure on sugar as well.
Cocoa Futures--- Cocoa futures hit another fresh contract low this morning in New York trading down around 20 points in the July contract to trade at 2064 before rallying off the lows of the day which had earlier in the session hit as low as 2026 before rallying into the closing bell. Today was a really poor day for the soft commodities and many of them hit contract lows including the cocoa market and I do believe in my opinion that cocoa prices are headed lower in the short term possibly getting as low as 16 – 17 level which I think could happen in the next couple of months. The reason I believe Cocoa prices are going lower is the fact that the Ivory Coast has stabilized and we haven't had any problems in a while causing prices to decline as well as a waning demand and with this giant recession that could hurt Europe and with the slowing Chinese economy this could put a lid on Cocoa prices.
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures continue to make contract lows nearly on a daily basis down another 355 points in the July contract currently trade around 157.25 a pound and like I have been stating in previous blogs I believe coffee can go as low as the low 150s or possibly if it breaks that level could go all the way down into the low 130s due to a record harvest is coming in and lack of demand while many of the soft commodities today all the contract lows once again with stocks and commodities around the world selling off except for the precious metals to a flight to quality. Coffee prices look very bearish on the daily chart with the grinding solid chart structure continuing to make new lows and I believe in the short term we will head south from these levels. Coffee futures had hit a 2 year low today with the next major support around 150 and if that is breached possibly could head all the way back down into the low 120s and remember coffee prices historically are still very highly priced at this point when if you look at five or six years ago coffee prices were around $.80 a pound and that is how far we have rallied in coffee with many of the other commodities as well.
Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures reversed earlier in the week's gains by selling off another 300 points this Friday afternoon in New York to close right around 67.45 a bale right at contract lows and looking ahead even lower in the short term due to the fact that we have a record supply of cotton at this time plus demand has slowed tremendously in the last several months. On June 12th is the next report with the last report stated record supplies which caused two straight days of limit down which equalled over 600 points and since that point prices have plummeted to where we are today and in my opinion are headed down to the low 60s in the short term. The Chinese demand is what hurts is really because they consume large amounts and with the slowdown in Europe and in China demand is just not what it was couple years ago where we were at all-time record prices
Stock Futures--- The S&P 500 today ended the week right near the lows down another 28.00 points today to close right around 1280 on a pessimistic outlook in Europe and a disappointing unemployment report which stated the unemployment rate was 8.2% while we only added 69,000 private jobs last month which was disappointing to the street causing the selloff across the board including the NASDAQ down over 58 points in the June contract traded 2465 also a weekly lows. The Dow Jones futures contract in the June contract finished down over 240 points to close right at 12,139 also finishing right at weekly lows and 2 month lows as well looking right at a 10% decline from the highs and in my opinion will head lower in the short term due to a setback in Europe and China and it looks like our economy here in the United States is not as good as been reported. The general consensus is that you need 250,000 jobs a month just to keep up with the population growth rate but we only added 69,000 jobs and we have spent hundreds of billions of dollars to try to create jobs which in my opinion is not working and is ballooning the deficit for absolutely no reason except implementing bad financial policies. If you remember in July of 2010 the last time we ran to the European crisis that's when the flash crash happened in the S&P ,however we were much lower in price than we are today so there still could be another 5 to 10% downside in the S&P, Dow and the NASDAQ and at this point I believe the S&P 500 is basically unchanged for the year the erasing solid gains in the first three months.
Bond Futures--- The bond futures in Chicago set another all-time high in the 30 year bond up another two full points currently trading at 152 – 14/32 new contract highs and all-time highs with the yield for a 30 year bond which is used generally for mortgages is down at 2.43% which is absolutely astonishing while the 10 year note up another 20 4/32 currently trading in the June contract at 135.21 which is a new high and a new low yield of 1.43% which is absolutely incredible when the 10 year notes were at a yield of 6% and 7% just last decade. The five-year note up another 7/32 currently trading at 124.18 also a new all-time high and that yields down to 0.59% which means if you give a bank $10,000 and after five years you only earned around $300 dollars minus taxes and inflation which basically means you are losing money and that is why the stock market except for the recent months has been going up because there's nowhere else to put your money when you yielding zero in a bank. As I've stated in previous blogs I believe the yields are going lower in the bond market because something is out there that we don't know at this point and the bond market is telling you there is a major bank collapse or major country collapse or some type of catastrophe coming up and that is the reason why countries and large funds are parking unbelievable amounts of money into the U.S treasuries because they are afraid of something occurring they just don't know what or when. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading.
Meat Futures--- Live cattle futures today were very quiet today despite the huge volatility we have seen across the board in the stock and commodity markets basically finishing unchanged this Friday afternoon in Chicago finishing right around 117 a pound while feeder cattle prices basically finished unchanged in the August contract as well settling right around 156.72 near recent highs, however both of these markets really have no trend at this point. Lean hogs futures like I've stated in previous blogs earlier this week I thought had possibly double bottomed on the daily charts and that is exactly what happened after a limit up move of 300 points yesterday continuing up another 70 points in the June contract currently trading at 90.50 a pound and looking at continue its bullish momentum next week due to the fact that costs for feed has gone down substantially in the last couple of weeks which helps hog prices with corn and soymeal sliding the new lows. I do not really have an opinion on the meat markets for they have been pretty choppy and I will basically sit on the side-line until a good solid chart structure develops with the solid trend in place and until that time I will just be a spectator. Volatility in the meat markets except for today have been absolutely astonishing we had feeder cattle prices plunge from all-time highs only to go back up and retest highs just a month later in the same things basically been happening in live cattle and hog prices so if you are looking enter this market please be sure that you have a solid money management technique such as using what I prefer a 1- 2% risk on any given trade of your total account balance therefore limiting your risk when you are wrong because you will be wrong so you have to be able to manage it. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading..
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Trading is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites.
