Silly season is coming to a close very soon and it's time to get back to serious trading. We were wondering....
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Some say to go against the crowd... be contrarian... so based on this vote so far, perhaps there is reason to be optimistic 🙂
The First Five trading days ends on Monday. I talk a lot about this on my video blog. If the first five trading days in January close up, so does the market over 80% of the time. Unless the market totally tanks on Monday, we've got a good shot of the first five trading days closing up.
The gloomier the sentiment the better for traders. When grandma starts selling her wedding ring better be out of that ring. The masses are always on the tailend
I think God put President Obama in as president to bankrupt America. so look what is happening. another thing the last few Presidents have come from or attended Ivy League Schools. and see what kind of a mess this country is in.What is wrong with Ivy League schools. We need a President that has not attended Ivy League school. There is a old saying a College education only confuses one on a higher plane. I think thats the answer.
I agree more or less with Gary and Fred but I will say the following:
I think the 2008 housing bubble bursting was the 1925 Florida Housing Bubble, the 2011 downturn was the stock market rumblings of 1928, and 2012/3 will be 1929.
Only this time around all the values are massively inflated from 3 decades of the Feds low interest rates, only kept up through the artificial respiratation of TARP, and QE1 and 2. QE3 is very likely to come soon since Europe is hopeless at seeing the writing on the wall and doing anything about it, and has been behind the curve from 2007.
Euroland was going to self-destruct anyway, but the MBS sold to banks in the UK and the EU have brought the date much closer. We're all in the global village now, even though some people think they can do really evil things and no-one will notice. So that malfeasance will come back to the US and bite it with a vengeance.
Pity for the US when the figures show the possible bottom has been reached in the economy, but there you go. Greece cooked the books to get into euroland and the chickens have come home to roost there. Karma comes around, even in the form of money.
The QE 3 will produce the 3rd peak (maybe this March or May/June?) and that will be the end. 21st - 24th December will not be nice. Although the 21st is the end of the Mayan calender, a new Mayan cycle will begin. Unfortunately perhaps, I do not believe in the end of the world on the 21st December, even though some people may think that is what is happening to them..
Here's the thing. The actual underlying price values (e.g. in US housing) have collapsed, and no amount of QEs can make up for that implosion in wealth.
Just look at a historical chart of the Dow or S&P since 1950 (even better still, 1900) and check out the markets' steep rise since 1980. After the next depression people will say: 'Look at that mountain of inflated values, and three peaks! How could anyone not see it was coming?.'
So the market collapse will be far greater than in 1929. The best thing to do is de-leverage quick, grow your own veg, fruit and cereal in some remote place you don't have to guard with a shotgun all the time. Buy a little real gold and silver but keep a lot of powder dry (now what will that be???) to get in at the bottom cirka 2016, early 2017, if markets still exist, of course.
If you are a trader then you have a much better deal. There will be lots of puts to be had. Just watch out the last put is not on you. Right to the end, people will not believe the market could go even lower.
In other words what I am saying is there will be a megacycle crash. We've all worked for it, we're all responsible for it, politically and economically, so just enjoy it. Nothing like staying positive. 🙂
As I have stocks in gold 30%, silver 60% and oil 10% I am bullish! The USD is toast and the EU is a house of cards built on thin ice. It is only a matter of time before the dysfunctional politicians really crank up the printing presses.
The dollar will undoubtedly continue its run to the top of the trading range of the last five years or so. This is the big dog, most everything else is just puppies yapping around it. Its demise will continue to be very elusive in 2012 as will be hyperinflation, wars and the end of the world.
I´m very bullish the dollar, bonds and stock in domestic U.S. companies that benefit from the deflation that the rising dollar brings into the U.S. , taking down the cost of their input. Since the U.S. economy is extremely dependent upon imports the rising dollar in effect constitutes a tax cut and increase in purchasing power for domestic companies and consumers. This is very important since private consumption accounts for about 70% of the turnover of the economy.
Bearish: U.S. multinationals whose revenue and profits will suffer from the rising dollar, commodities in general so called safe havens included. Europe, don´t buy it, this new soviet system is new but not improved, it´s headed for the dustbins.
Don't make predictions--who really knows ??? Cheerleaders on 1 end, doom and gloomers on the other, i'll just trade what the market gives me, always keeping the powder dry for any very o'sold mkt. Patience will be required, tight stops, (don't mind if i get whipsawed, beats the alternative) and only enter good risk/reward trades.
2012 will show a calamitous drop in the Dow, portending more of the same for 2013 through tp 2015. Watch the Dow and S & P tank this coming week or so and hold on to your hats!
Only a matter of time before Europe goes down. The bankrupt USA is next. The Fed can't print enough money to save us. And inflation will eat us alive.
I just don't quite understand why the greed can't ever seem to come my way????
The paradigm is the same: we're in a Secular Bear Market. The longer a significant decline is avoided the more likely it becomes. I have a hard time believing that being "in bear territory (as they call it on CNBC)" is a significant enough decline, so the clock started ticking in March of 2009 and continues today. Any continued progress in appreciation by the averages constitutes lurking danger. God knows, there are enough visible pits out there into which an investor might fall. There are managers out there -- not just a scant few hedge funds -- that have a track record protecting assets after participating well in advances. That's who has the bulk of my money. So if we get to 1370 on the S&P and then give a big chunk of it back I'll still sleep at night.
The year is going to be driven by the news clips: Congressional $ Crisis: European € Crisis: Iran; North Korea and Supreme Court decisions. I pretty much look for a repeat of the swings of last year with a burst or bust at year end which will depend on what is elected this time.
Since you can't believe the cheerleaders, defense is the only salvation. Write covered calls against all equities and continue to reduce your basis year after year with leaps. It is amazing how fast time goes by.