Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 18th of November.
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It's Friday and we know what that means!
As we move into the trading day, the equity markets are all lower for the week. Many of the markets came under pressure this past week, including crude oil which looks like it is going to close lower for the week after reaching a six month high earlier in the week. This is not a particularly positive sign for this market.
Make no mistake, yesterday's market action was negative for the S&P 500. As all of our Trade Triangles flashed RED it was like an alarm signaling lower prices ahead.
Silver also flashed an all red Trade Triangle configuration, showing that there could be a lot more on the downside.
Gold is in a trading range. What is happening to the world?
Now, let's go to the charts and the video and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P 500 INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Heading Lower.
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -90
CLOSE LAST WEEK: $1263.85
Yesterday all of our Trade Triangles turned red, putting this index on the defensive. A close today below $1209 will add early downward pressure next week. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement can push this market back down to the $1160 area. The key level to look for this Friday is a close below the $1209 level. With a Chart Analysis Score of -90, we are in a downtrend. Long-term and Intermediate term traders should either be in cash or continue to hold short positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
See today's S&P 500 Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
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Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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PERSONAL ONE-ON-ONE MARKETCLUB COACHING
877–219–1482 The call is free and the consultation is free.
Watch my personal one-on-one coaching right here.
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SILVER (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Heading Lower
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -100
CLOSE LAST WEEK: $34.68
The spot silver market came under fresh pressure yesterday and moved the Chart Analysis Score to a -100 reading. We are now beginning a continuation bear market in silver. This market has key support at $30.00 and a break of that level will begin an acceleration to the downside. Generally speaking, the major trend for silver continues to be negative based on our monthly Trade Triangle and our intermediate weekly Trade Triangle turned negative yesterday, putting all Trade Triangles negative. Long-term and intermediate term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate money management stops.
See today's Silver Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
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Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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PERSONAL ONE-ON-ONE MARKETCLUB COACHING
877–219–1482 The call is free and the consultation is free.
Watch my personal one-on-one coaching right here.
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GOLD (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +65
CLOSE LAST WEEK: $1,787.85
A Chart Analysis Score of +55 indicates that gold has now entered into a trading range. Fibonacci retracements are as follows: 38.2% = $1,699, 50% = $1,667, 61.8% = 1,634. Long-term, intermediate term traders should remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's Gold Video Here.
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Monthly trade triangles for Long-term trends = Positive
weekly trade triangles for intermediate term trends = Positive
daily trade triangles for short-term trends = Negative
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Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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COPPER (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -75
CLOSE LAST WEEK: $34.65
Copper is lower for the week and with a Chart Analysis Score of -75 this metal could be emerging from its trading range into a full blown bear market. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continue to be negative while the intermediate trend is in conflict with the longer-term negative trend. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in copper with appropriate stops.
See today's Copper Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
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Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long JJC)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: A close below $98.99 puts oil lower for the week
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +90
CLOSE LAST WEEK: $98.99
Hard to believe, but if this market closes below $98.99, it will put crude oil lower for the week. It is still too early to say that this market has topped out. It certainly feels like it, however we need to have more indicators to confirm that suspicion. At the present time all of our Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode, which is the direction of the major trend. Next level of resistance is the $105 level. Long-term, Intermediate term and short term traders should all be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
See today's Crude Oil Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
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Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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PERSONAL ONE-ON-ONE MARKETCLUB COACHING
877–219–1482 The call is free and the consultation is free.
Watch my personal one-on-one coaching right here.
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DOLLAR INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Resistance now at $78.50
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +100
CLOSE LAST WEEK: $76.91
The dollar index is higher for the week, but continues to have some problems around the $78.50 level which is providing a near-term resistance. We still believe we'll see this market traded higher and want to hold on to all long positions as our Trade Triangle technology continues to point to higher levels. All of our Trade Triangles are in positive mode indicating that this market remains in strong hands. Long-Term and intermediate term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
See today's Dollar Index Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
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Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Index lower for the week
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -75
CLOSE LAST WEEK: $320.45
This index is lower for the week and looks to be on the defensive. A move below $312.00 will accelerate the downward pressure on this index. Resistance is evident at the $320 level and support comes in around the $312 area. Our longer-term Trade Triangles remain negative for this index. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-Term traders should maintain short positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
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Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
--------------
PERSONAL ONE-ON-ONE MARKETCLUB COACHING
877–219–1482 The call is free and the consultation is free.
Watch my personal one-on-one coaching right here.
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HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Chart Analysis Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Chart Analysis Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Chart Analysis Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you again, right here with my weekend update. Have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
So that's your response, to name call and then apologize to Adam?
As far as hiding behind a keyboard, one has only to click on my name, which is my real name, with a real pic, and can even go back to my blog where they can see my full name and address.
As opposed to yourself who uses a handle Brutus, doesn't post a pic, nor his address, and is in fact hiding behind their keyboard.
And then, if that's not stupid enough, you call me an "arrogant prick" and then end your post with "Peace!"?! That's stupid dude.
Listen, if you can't handle the heat in the kitchen and your ideas challenged, don't walk into the kitchen in the first place.
And don't pretend you care about the country and then turn around and call your fellow citizens who don't agree with you: clueless, neo crony, and arrogant prick. It's like watching a hooker pretend she's out for a walk when cops drive by.
LanceJ, you need to get a life instead of posting nonsense about things that you are clueless. Read some books instead of watching CCN and MSNBC. I am losing hope! I've got close friends that have accounts with MF Global and I sure hate to see what they are going through which you are clueless about and I sure do not hope for anyone to be in their position! About Ron Paul well obviously you have no understanding of what this country is all about and that leads to me to believe you are nothing but another Neo Crony! Get a life!
Sorry about it Adam, he comes across as another know it all arrogant prick hiding behind his keyboard!
Peace!
@ dick cohen: "Don’t be fooled by BCM. That is just another rationalization for guessing wrong on the market. Do you think she would drop out if she was sucessful?"
Excellent analysis and point. Trading psychology suggests that she was already in trouble in her positions and feeling the heat from some clients for underperformance. MF Global was just the excuse she needed to exit out of the market and move to the sidelines.
Someone who is making money hand over fist for their clients who are, in turn, singing their praises, is generally not going to be someone who will drop out.
With that said, MF Global can teach us all some very important lessons. In essence, doubling down on Greek debt with the logic that Greece is too big for the EU to let fail was the profit thesis. It was a bad profit thesis, but so what. Then, leveraging that position and doubling down when the market moved against him was a bad move, but again, so what. What ultimately killed him was co-mingling investors funds with that of his company so he could further leverage his position. All of this could have been avoided had he focused on risk mitigation instead of how much money he could make. You always have to think risk first. Whenever you enter a position, your focus should be all on reducing your risk when/if the market moves against you. Everything needs to be defensive in your thinking. A simple stop loss policy would have avoided all of this.
"Complete and utter corruption is what is going on. The banks are indeed a cartel, a syndicate, who finance all candidates to make sure no one gets into high public office who will interfere with their business. Take Ron Paul, for example, the one Republican candidate who is never covered by the media. Why? Because he is unqualified? Yeah, right, look at the other joke candidates."
Ron Paul is not covered by more media because he's ranked too far down in the polling. He's ranked too far down in the polling because, well frankly, he's crazy. Unless you're a gold bug, his eliminate the Federal Reserve and audit the gold in Fort Knox, excuse me for a moment... yawn, ahem... is not what interests most voters right now.
Ron Paul is like a walking dead zombie that just won't go away and keeps running for President every damn time. How many times do voters have to say no to him, and his pro-gold agenda, for him to get the message that his ideas are not popular enough with mainstream voters for him to even win a primary, let alone a general election for President?
I know Ron Paul is a smart, quick, good debater, but he's stupid when it comes to marketing. If something doesn't work in your marketing, you change it up. Ron Paul is running the same old, dog tired, boring, mainstream America doesn't give a crap, message. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different outcome.
I am very hurt and very ashame of my country at the evil that lerks in man's heart how could you
After having written a simple but (of course) brilliant and useful account of my eight months' hacking and chopping in the market, complete with a nice analysis of market sector behavior and psychological factors, and after composing a humorous but possibly real account of how the Polacks will use their potential Bakken-like gas reserves to protect the pound against a German euro assault thus causing a possible Russian intervention to protect their gas interests in Europe, my stinking mixed chihuaha/terrier/dachshund for whatever reason jumped up onto the keyboard and wiped out everything. Losing some immediate creative effort is cheaper than some of the other incidental losses I've had. Oh well.
Complete and utter corruption is what is going on. The banks are indeed a cartel, a syndicate, who finance all candidates to make sure no one gets into high public office who will interfere with their business.
Take Ron Paul, for example, the one Republican candidate who is never covered by the media. Why? Because he is unqualified? Yeah, right, look at the other joke candidates. No, it is because he is demanding that the Federal Reserve be eliminated, and among other things, that there be an independent audit of the Gold in Fort Knox, and that some of the bars to be assayed and tested by a laboratory in order to prove that it is investment grade gold bullion as the U.S. Treasury Department says.
Last August Paul said that “if there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there.” Paul has been asking for this since the early 1980s, when he was a member of the U.S. Gold Commission, when he recommended that Congress audit the gold reserves. It was rejected by 15 of the Gold Commission’s 17 members. An audit might help restore faith in the dollar which is being debased with the dollar now trading at less than a 1,500th of an ounce of gold. The US dollar has lost 97% of its value in the last 97 years – since the foundation of the Federal Reserve.
I thought our monies are insured.
This was told me by Merrill Lynch.
may want to check out ann's web site. she's rather extreme. not that she's wrong, but maybe she over-reacted.
GaryR, thanks for the great advice but what I found troubling is the missing $600 million dollars from clients' accounts and most troubling their froze trading accounts/cash. I DO NOT TRUST ANYONE WITH MY MONEY ANYMORE! I am just wondering how many of these brokerage firms are having the same issues as the MF Global and I am sure we will hear about it in the coming weeks. I just refuse to believe this was an isolated case! Good luck!
It is obvious that there are risks, both known and unknown, of trading futures, forex, stocks, bonds... whatever. Never risk capital that you cannot afford to lose, whether it be through poor trades, poor risk management, or factors completely beyond your control (fraud or bankruptcy of your broker, for examples). Picture losing whatever you have in the market. If the picture is horrendous and unacceptable, put your money somewhere else or sit on it. If the picture is grim, but bearable, then trade as wisely as you can. The markets these days depend upon people losing money and the ride down is always faster than the ride up. Don't be naive about this, but instead educate yourself as to the realities of trading, not the fantasies of trading.
thanks for your reply d cohen, but don't you find MF global situation a bit troubling? Well I do and I have taken necessary actions to protect my end. good luck and if you have any proof that BCM was in trouble please share.
Don't be fooled by BCM. That is just another rationalization for guessing wrong on the market. Do you think she would drop out if she was sucessful?
We all have become the victims of the corrupt runaway banking cartel. The futurs and options market is no longer in place to serve the mass. After reading Ms. Ann Barnhardt open letter to her clients on her company's website Barnhardt.biz and thus learning more about the consequences of the MF Global collapse I have decided to close all my trades too.
"the BCM Has Ceased Operations (source)
Posted by Ann Barnhardt - November 17, AD 2011 10:27 AM MST
Dear Clients, Industry Colleagues and Friends of Barnhardt Capital Management,
It is with regret and unflinching moral certainty that I announce that Barnhardt Capital Management has ceased operations. After six years of operating as an independent introducing brokerage, and eight years of employment as a broker before that, I found myself, this morning, for the first time since I was 20 years old, watching the futures and options markets open not as a participant, but as a mere spectator.
The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy............."