Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is trading at 1,229 an ounce finishing lower by another $12 for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum. I've talked about this market for quite some time as I remain bearish and I think there's a lot of room to run to the downside as 1,200 is in the cards possibly this week. The entire precious metal sector continues to melt away on a daily basis, and I sound like a broken record as I see no reason own gold or any of the precious metals at this time as the U.S. dollar continues its bullish momentum as fundamentally & technically speaking the gold market has nothing bullish at this time. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside, and if 1,200 is broken, we could test last year's low around 1,125 as I still think prices look expensive. The NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 hit another all-time yesterday as that's where all the money flows are flowing, and all of the interest lies in the equity market and not in gold. I think this trend will continue throughout 2018 coupled with the fact that the commodity markets remain extremely weak as the uncertainty about the Trump tariffs have certainly put the kibosh on prices in the short term and if you are short stay short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.81 an ounce while currently trading at 15.40 down about $0.40 for the trading week continuing its bearish momentum while hitting a fresh contract low yesterday all way down to 15.18 as I still don't believe a bottoming pattern has been formed. Silver prices are trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside despite today's positive trade across the board for the precious metals as the U.S. dollar is down 50 points today blamed on profit-taking helping support silver in today's trade. The commodity markets across the board remain weak as all of the interest still lies in the U.S equity market which continues its bullish momentum on a weekly basis as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals and silver and into stocks as I see that trend continuing throughout 2018. In my opinion, like I have talked about in many previous blogs if silver prices break the 15.10 level which was almost tested yesterday, then I think we can head down to the 14 range as I still see no reason to own this commodity. However, historically speaking prices are getting very cheap in my opinion as I think once we can get some clarity about the Trump tariff situation the bullish trends will come about.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the September contract is currently trading at 68.25 a barrel after settling last Friday in New York at 69.95 down about $1.70 for the trading week as the trend at the current time is mixed in my opinion. I still have a bullish bias towards this commodity as I do believe higher prices are ahead. However, I'm not involved, but I'm certainly not recommending any bearish position as I think the fundamental and technical picture remains bullish. There is a lot of uncertainty about Saudi Arabia, and Russian production as that has sent prices on a roller coaster over the last several weeks. Oil prices are now trading under their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as volatility remains relatively high and I think that situation will stay for the rest of 2018 as strong demand continues to support prices here in the short term as the U.S economy is hitting on all cylinders. I will wait for the chart structure to improve over the next couple of weeks. I do not believe that the $74 level will be the highs in 2018 as the August contract expires in today's trade as we will now focus on the September contract if you are an options trader I would be looking at selling out of the money puts, therefore, collecting the premium as a trading strategy.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

10-Year Note Futures

The 10-year note in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 120/11 while currently trading at 120/06 down 5 points for the trading week still stuck in a 4-week tight consolidation with absolutely no volatility at the present time. The yield on the 10-year note stands at 2.86% as I still have a very bearish bias towards this market as I will still be looking at a bearish position possibly in next week's trade on any rally as I still think we will cross the 3% level in the coming weeks ahead. The 10-year note is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the upside as this would be a counter-trend trade in my opinion as the U.S stock market continues its bullish momentum as I see no reason for these ridiculously low-interest rates to last much longer in my opinion. The chart structure is outstanding because we have been in such a tight trading range. I think prices are topping out so keep a close eye on this market for a short position as the Federal Reserve will still probably raise interest rates three more times in 2018. We are awaiting next week's GDP report with estimates as high as a 4.2% growth rate which would be the 1st time that has occurred in around 15 years as the U.S. economy is booming.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the September contract is currently trading at 2810 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 2803 up 7 points for the trading week still experiencing low volatility despite at these elevated prices as S&P is trading right at a 5-month high. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 2803 level, and if you took that trade the stop loss has been raised to 2765 & will also improve in next week's trade; therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered as the chart structure has turned outstanding due to ridiculously low volatility. The S&P 500 is still trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is to the upside as the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 which is the small-cap index hit all-time highs once again this week as Microsoft released its earnings yesterday as that stock is hitting another all-time high helping support prices in today's trade. The all-time high in the S&P 500 was hit on January 29th high at 2889, and I think that level will be breached in the coming weeks ahead. There still a lot of room to run to the upside as we're in the midst of earnings season as they have been very solid so far as the U.S has an outstanding economy coupled with much lower taxes towards the corporate sector as fundamentally & technically speaking this market remains very bullish in my opinion so stay long.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.54 a bushel while currently trading at 3.68 up $0.14 for the trading week as corn prices have not had a positive week in almost 2 months that's how bearish this commodity has been as it looks to me that a possible bottom may have finally been formed. The crop progress report was released earlier this week as the good/excellent rating declined slightly but still looks like an excellent crop has developed. But all of the bad news may have already been reflected into the price as we are now trading above the 20-day moving average for the 1st time in two months, but still below their 100-day as prices are right at a 2-week high. Corn prices may have finally bottomed out in last week's trade around 3.50 as prices are also following the wheat market which is right at a 4-week high. I've talked about in previous blogs I think wheat has the highest potential out of the grain sector as I believe this corn rally has been based on profit-taking off of massively oversold conditions. The chart structure is starting to improve as we could be looking at a possible bullish position in the coming weeks ahead. I still believe once the Trump tariff situation gets clarified the bullish trends across the board will develop as the commodity markets are extremely cheap especially compared to the U.S. stock market and the type of growth that we are experiencing in the United States. Traders are keeping a close eye on the 7/10 day weather forecast which still has adequate rain and below average temperatures as the weather situation still remains ideal in the Midwestern part of the United States.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: LOW

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the September contract are trading at 2.7530 down another 200 points this week hitting a fresh contract low as weak demand is the main culprit for depressed prices. If you take a look at the daily chart the next major level of support is all the way down at 2.50 and that is exactly where I think prices are headed in the coming weeks. China is the largest consumer of copper in the world, and anything associated with China continues to sell off on a daily and weekly basis so if you are short stay short as there is more room to run to the downside in my opinion. Copper prices are trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is lower as the entire precious metal sector is hitting contract lows once again with the U.S. dollar is at a 1-year high continuing its bullish momentum. I don't see that trend ending anytime soon as that should continue to keep the pressure on prices in the short term. The commodity markets across the board remain weak as the only bullish trend lies in the U.S equity market which hit another all-time high this week as I'm currently recommending a bullish S&P 500 trade as I'm certainly not suggesting any type of bullish position in copper as a bottom has not been formed yet.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY:

Sugar Futures

Sugar prices in the October contract ended the week on a positive note up 18 points at 11.15 a pound after settling last Friday in New York at 10.96 up about 20 points for the trading week as prices might be forming some bottoming pattern in my opinion. At present, there is very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action as Thailand has produced another record crop coupled with the fact that India is exporting sugar as they have a large supply to sell, but that news has already been known and has already been reflected into the price. The volatility remains very low as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as historically speaking prices look very cheap in my opinion, but the trend still is lower, and I will be patient and look for some type of bullish trend to develop as that will still take a couple more weeks. Sugar prices hit a fresh multi-year low on July 16th at 10.86 as corn prices also hit lows in last week's trade as the commodity markets have been decimated in recent weeks due to the Trump tariff situation, but eventually, that becomes old news as I think that might be occurring at this time. The chart structure is starting to improve on a weekly basis as I'm itching to start buying some of these commodities at these very depressed levels as I might even do some counter-trend trading otherwise known as bottom fishing in the coming weeks ahead.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the September contract are trading higher for the 2nd consecutive session up another 12 cents at 5.16 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 4.97 up around $0.20 for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum hitting a 4-week high in today's trade. I will be looking at a possible bullish position on some type of price retracement as the 10-day low is too far away as the monetary risk is too much for this commodity at the current time, but it certainly looks to me that prices held major support at the 4.80 level as this is the strongest grain of them all. Wheat prices are trading above their 20, and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the upside as the Trump tariff situation does not affect wheat as much as corn or soybeans as that rhetoric came to life once again today. However, this is a weather market as traders are keeping a close eye on the 7/10 day weather forecast in the Great Plains part of the United States which remains dry as that is supporting prices in the short term. The next major level of resistance is around the 5.25 level, and I think there's more room to run to the upside, but wait for some type of retracement around the $5 level before entering into a bullish position. However, I'm certainly not recommending any bearish kind of position as I do think the wheat market has finally bottomed like I have talked about in many previous blogs.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Trading Theory

Commodities that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure. I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about. If the chart has big swings, your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.