Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,242 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,255 down about $13 for the trading week hitting a fresh contract low as I remain bearish gold and as I have talked about in many previous blogs I think we're headed towards the 1,200 area relatively soon. The precious metals across the board continue their bearish momentum on a daily, and weekly basis as the U.S dollar remains strong, and the U.S equity market also is in a significant bullish trend as the NASDAQ 100, and the Russell 2000 hit all-time highs in yesterday's trade. Money flows continue to come out of the precious metal sector and into the equity market, and I don't see that ending anytime soon. I see no reason to own gold at this time and if you are short, stay short and place the stop loss above the 10-day high standing at 1,267 as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade, therefore, the risk will also be lowered. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as volatility is average at the current time, but investors presently don't want to own anything except for stocks and possibly the crude oil market. I'm not recommending any bullish position in gold as a bottoming pattern has not been formed yet in my opinion as prices still look expensive.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: SOLID

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.06 an ounce while currently trading at 15.78 down nearly $0.30 for the week hitting a fresh contract low as the entire precious metal sector is right near yearly lows as well as I still think lower prices are ahead. The next major level of support is around 15.55 which was hit on December 11th, 2017 & if that level is broken, I think we could test the July 10th 2017 low of 15.15 as the longer term downtrend line remains intact as this market remains very bearish in my opinion. The U.S. dollar remains strong up another 35 points this Friday afternoon putting pressure on silver prices. However, the problem is the Trump tariff situation as investors are taking a risk-off approach and until some clarity comes about the entire commodity sectors except for oil could continue to go lower on a daily and weekly basis as I don't see that ending anytime soon. Silver prices are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average as clearly this trend is to the downside as I'm certainly not recommending any bullish position. Volatility in silver has started to increase, but all of the interest still lies in the U.S equity market which is higher once again today as the Nasdaq 100 is hitting another all-time high as weak demand and a lack of risk-taking at this time continue to put pressure on silver prices.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: SOLID

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.8240 a pound while currently trading at 2.7700 down over 500 points for the trading week hitting a fresh contract low as this market remains extremely bearish in my opinion as I still think lower prices are ahead. Copper prices are trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average looking to retest the July 11th low of 2.7170 in my opinion as weak demand and the Trump tariffs are a terrible situation for this commodity as I don't think the selloff is complete just yet. Prices have entirely fallen out of bed as they topped out on June 7th at 3.3345 and have now dropped about 6000 points in a little over a month. I still think we're headed down to the 2.50 level in the coming weeks ahead and if you are short, my recommendation is to stay short as I am not recommending any bullish position. The commodity markets, in general, remain weak across the board as I don't think the trend is quite over with yet. However, we're getting close in my opinion, but I still think there's one more leg down as the precious metals are probably the most bearish sector at this time as the volatility is relatively high and should stay high for the rest of 2018.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the September contract is trading higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session up 5 points at 2803 breaking the critical 2800 level hitting a 4-month high as this is the strongest market at the current time. I'm recommending a bullish position from today's price level while placing the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 2700 as the risk is around $5,100 per contract plus slippage & commission at this trade should only be taken with a large trading account as the risk is high. The chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, the risk will be lowered as the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000 are at all-time highs once again today as I think the S&P will catch up as its all-time high was touched on January 29th at 2889 as there is more room to run to the upside in my opinion. This is probably the only market that has not been affected by the Trump tariffs as the commodity markets have been utterly decimated, however strong earnings and sizeable corporate stock buybacks continue to support prices in the short-term as the fundamental and technical picture remains very strong in my opinion. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the trend is to the upside as we are in the midst of earnings season and volatility should start to increase as it remains relatively low. So, play this to the upside and if the risk is too high wait for some price retracement before entering into a bullish position.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR - IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

10-Year Note Futures

The 10-year note in the September contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 120/11 while currently trading at the same price unchanged for the trading week experiencing extremely low volatility as we are stuck in a 2-week consolidation pattern. The 10-year note is trading right near a 6-week high as prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the short-term trend is to the upside. However, I am looking at a counter-trend recommendation possibly in next week's trade as I'm looking to go short as the yield at present is 2.83% which is entirely ridiculously low in my opinion especially when the NASDAQ 100 & the Russell 2000 hit all-time highs on a daily basis. In my opinion, I believe the Trump tariffs have supported bond prices as the commodity markets are falling out of bed, so investors are buying bonds, but I think that situation will eventually end on a positive note. The fundamentals of the United States economy are outstanding and coupled with extremely low unemployment numbers so let's look to sell this possibly on the next up day as I remain bearish as I don't think this volatility is going to stay low for much longer.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 8.94 a bushel while currently trading at 8.29 down about $0.65 for the trading week as this market has utterly collapsed over the last month and looks to move even lower in my opinion. Soybean prices are right near a 10-year low with the next major level of support at 7.75 as I think that could be touched relatively soon as the Trump tariffs and excellent growing conditions in the Midwestern part of the United States has put the hurt on prices in the short term. Estimates of this year's production numbers were released yesterday, and it looks like we will produce around 4.3/4.4 billion bushels. I think it could even be higher than that come harvest time which is still several months away as there is entirely nothing bullish about soybeans or the grain market as a whole as we are trading far below the 20 and 100-day moving average as I'm certainly not recommending any bullish position at this time. The chart structure is terrible therefore the risk/reward is not in your favor as prices have collapsed with no sign of bottoming at this time as the soybean meal market still looks extremely expensive in my opinion & still has a lot of room to run to the downside.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the September contract are ending the week on a positive note up $0.10 at 4.94 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 5.15 down about $0.20 for the trading week and hit a 6-month low in Wednesday's trade before rallying on profit-taking. Wheat is the strongest grain at present as it has a different fundamental picture than soybeans and corn. I'm currently not involved in this market as the trend remains choppy to lower as prices are still trading below their 20 and 100- day moving average as I will wait for the chart structure to improve, but I do think the downside is limited. The Trump tariffs have certainly hurt wheat prices over the last couple of months. However, traders are focusing on the 7/10 day weather forecast for the Great Plains part of the United States which remains ideal with adequate rain. Volatility in wheat is exceptionally high as we are witnessing 20 cent days on a daily basis so if you do enter this market make sure you place the proper amount of contracts while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade. This volatility certainly will last throughout the summer months and could even become more violent especially if hot & dry weather persists in principal wheat growing regions, but at the current time, I'm advising clients to avoid and be patient.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR - IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the September contract traded higher by 55 points at 2511 for the trading week still stuck in a 6-week consolidation looking to break out to the upside in my opinion as I will keep a close eye on this market for a possible bullish recommendation soon. The chart structure is improving on a daily basis as the breakout has to close above the June 25th high of 2562 & if that does occur I will be recommending a futures contract while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low if that situation does arrive as an exit strategy. Cocoa prices are trading slightly above their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average as the trend is mixed at present so be patient & wait for the breakout to happen before entering as trading in a consolidation is very frustrating as trendless markets are tough to trade successfully in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets continue to decline on a daily basis due to the Trump tariff situation, however cocoa prices have retraced rather dramatically off their bullish trend they experienced earlier this year as it looks to me that a bottoming pattern has developed as the risk/reward could be in your favor in next week's trade. Many of the commodities are trading higher today on a relief rally as they were pounded to the downside yesterday. I do think if the tariff situation comes out to be a positive fundamental indicator that would be bullish across the board, but it looks to me that this could take some time so look to play this to the upside.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW

Trading Theory

This rule is extremely important, and I witness it being continuously abused creating tremendous loses that are sometimes difficult to come back from.

Never add to a losing position because if the position continues to go against you, and now you have added even more contracts which are all losing money your account will suffer loses much more than 2% and in some case adding positions and never getting out of a losing trade has wiped peoples trading accounts down to zero because of 1 or 2 bad trades.

Remember always play for another day you will have losing trades, and the good traders manage losses and move on to the next possible trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 630-408-3325


ms****@se**********.com

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.