Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly futures recap of the market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas prices experienced a wild trading week after settling last Friday in New York at 3.17 in the March contract while now trading at 2.89 down about 28 points for the week. I was recommending a bullish position from around the 3.13 level getting stopped out in yesterday's trade as prices are now at a three-week low. I had also been recommending a bullish position in the February contract as we had to roll over into the March giving back some of the gains that we witnessed. I'm now sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as the trend has turned negative. Natural gas prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the volatility has exploded with extremely warm temperatures last week which sent prices down. However, colder temperatures are upon us as this market looks to be choppy so avoid for now & look at other markets with a better risk/reward scenario as the volatility will remain high in February. However, the spring season is almost upon us. At the present time I do not have any recommendations in the energy sector as I still remain bullish as natural gas prices still are cheap, but does not meet my criteria to enter into a trade so I will be patient and wait for the chart structure to improve, but I do think prices to the downside are limited.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures are currently trading at 16.90 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 17.44 down about $0.54 for the trading week. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 17.50 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 16.73 as the chart structure will improve in next weeks trade. Silver prices are now trading under their 20-day moving average but slightly above their 100-day as the trend is mixed and prices have had a hard time breaking through the critical 17.70 level. The U.S. dollar is up about 50 points in today's trade as the monthly employment number came out very positive as the United States added 200,000 jobs pushing gold and silver lower. Volatility in silver remains relatively low, and I will continue to place the proper stop loss and see what next weeks trade brings. I remain confident in silver and the rest of the precious metals despite today's trading action. If you did not take the original recommendation if you buy at today's price level on a mini contract the risk is $200 per contract plus slippage and commission as the risk/reward are still in your favor. Historically speaking, I still think silver prices are very low & could trade above the $20 level come year end as inflation will start to appear as the 10-year note which I'm recommending a short position is now at the 2.80% level which tells you growth is occurring in the United States and worldwide.
TREND: MIXED - LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures are currently trading at 64.74 after settling last Friday in New York at 66.14 a barrel down about $1.50 for the trading week ending on a sour note due to the U.S dollar up nearly 80 points today sending the commodity sectors sharply lower across the board. If you are long a futures contract, I will place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 63.70 as the chart structure is outstanding as prices have gone sideways over the last several weeks topping out on the January 25th high of 66.66. The stock market experienced one of its worst trading weeks in months as that is also putting pressure on oil prices coupled with the fact that the 10-year note has now hit a five year high yielding 2.85% which is spooking the commodity and stock markets as profit-taking across the board is ensuing. However, I remain bullish longer-term crude oil prices, but when prices hit a two-week low its time to move on as you must have an exit strategy while then looking at other markets that are beginning to trend. Oil prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the upside as the U.S dollar has major influence on this commodity, but that trend is still to the downside despite today's activity.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: SOLID

Oat Futures

Oat futures in the March contract are currently trading at 2.69 a bushel after settling last Friday in Chicago at 2.66 up about 3 cents for the trading week continuing its slow grinding momentum to the upside. I have been recommending a bullish position over the last month from around the 2.60 level and if you took the trade, the stop loss has now been raised to 2.56 as the chart structure is excellent, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. Prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is higher as the volatility has undoubtedly increased. The next major level of resistance at the January 25th high of 2.79 & if that is broken, I think we can retest the November 15th high of 2.88 as I remain bullish. Strong demand from the country of Canada continues to push prices higher coupled with the fact of growing concerns possibly affecting yields as I'm also recommending a bullish position in corn & wheat as oat prices can mirror the wheat market over the course of time. I will be looking at adding more contracts to the upside if the 2.79 level is broken as the chart structure will also improve later next week as this market remains strong. In my opinion, the risk/reward are still in your favor, but make sure that you only risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as a proper money management technique.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: SOLID

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.56 a bushel while currently trading at 3.60 up 4 cents for the trading week. I have been recommending two bullish positions with an average price around 3.58 & if you took that trade, the stop loss remains at 3.49 as the chart structure is outstanding due to the extremely low volatility. Corn prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned positive and we are right near a three-month high as traders are awaiting the next USDA crop report which will be released in a little more than a week. We will now focus on the 2018 crop and how many acres will be planted this spring. The next major level of resistance is at the 3.70 level, and I do think the volatility in the months ahead will increase as it certainly can't decrease as we have come to a crawl over the last six months. I'm also recommending a bullish position in oats and wheat as I believe that the grain market is moving higher. The U.S. dollar is up over 50 points today as many of the commodity markets are lower across the board including the U.S. stock market. However, I remain bullish as I think the extremely low inflationary rate will start to increase due to growth in the United States and worldwide, but it will take some time in my opinion. Estimations of early planting acres are around 94 million which could produce an extremely large crop once again but those numbers are just rumors as we will find out the official totals in the weeks ahead.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 81.22 while currently trading at 79.60 down about 160 points for the trading week right near a four-week low. I had been recommending a bullish position in the March contract getting stopped out last week around the 80 level, and I am now sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop. Cotton prices are currently trading below their 20-day moving average for the 1st time in several months, but far above their 100-day as this has been the strongest agricultural market. Prices topped out on January 12th around 84.45 and traders are awaiting the next USDA crop report which will be released in a little over a week as spring planting is only a couple of months away and the volatility should start to increase on a weekly basis. At present, I just have one soft commodity recommendation which is in cocoa, which was slightly higher this week. I remain bullish many commodity sectors as the U.S dollar is still at a three-year low as the chart structure in cotton is poor, and we might not be involved for several more weeks, but I do think the downside is limited. The next major report will involve planting intentions, and I expect that to be relatively high because cotton prices are much higher than many other agricultural markets such as the grains as the 2017 crop was considered poor as the 2018 growing season is highly anticipated.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 1986 while currently trading at 2057 up 70 points for the trading week hitting a two-month high continuing its bullish momentum while trading higher for the 4th consecutive session. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 1990 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the two-week low which stands at 1908. However, in Tuesday's trade that will be raised to 1934 as the chart structure is improving, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. I remain bullish this commodity & think higher prices are ahead. Prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher and I think we will test the 2100 level possibly next week. If that is broken, I think we could go up to the contract high around the 2200 area despite the fact that the U.S. dollar was up 50 points. I believe cocoa prices are historically speaking remain cheap in my opinion, so continue to play this to the upside. At present, cocoa is my only soft commodity recommendation. I'm keeping a close eye on orange juice & coffee as I remain bullish the commodity markets despite today's selloff across the board because the 10-year note is now yielding 2.85% which is spooking many of the markets including the U.S. stock market to the downside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: SOLID

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the March contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive session down 2 cents at 4.48 a bushel. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 4.40 level as I remain positive on this market and I think the last couple of days are just a retracement due to weather forecasts. If you took the original trade, continue to place the stop loss under the two-week low which now stands at 4.19 as that will improve in next weeks trade as traders are waiting to see if the southern Great Plains will receive beneficial rain over the weekend. If they don't, look for the volatility to skyrocket to the upside as 4.80 is on the horizon in my opinion. I will be looking to add more contracts possibly in next weeks trade once the chart structure improves. Wheat prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned to the upside for the first time since the summer of 2017. I still have recommendations in oats and corn as I think the grain market has real possibilities to the upside due to the fact that exports are starting to increase tremendously because of the U.S. dollar, which remains in a weak trend which is at a three-year low, so play this to the upside as there is room to run.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 312-224-8140


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There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.