Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,271 an ounce while currently trading at 1,278. up about $7 for the trading week hitting a five-week high looking to retest the April 14th high of 1,300 in my opinion. The U.S dollar continues its bearish trend down another 45 points this afternoon helping push up the precious metals and especially gold, which looks very strong at the current time. If you are in a bullish position place your stop loss at the 10-day low at 1,250 as lower interest rates in the United States continue to support gold prices. Gold is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average is telling you that the short-term trend is higher as several terrorist attacks throughout the world over the last week or so continue to prop up prices despite the U.S stock market continuing to hit all-time highs. Both markets are going higher together which does not happen very often. However, this could be a special situation. If the $1,300 level is broken the next major level of resistance is last year's high around the 1,350 level so there could still be room to run to the upside and if you're involved make sure your risk 2% of your account balance on any trade as an exit strategy.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.31 while currently trading at 2.99 lower for the 4th consecutive trading session. I have been recommending a short position from around the 3.17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10-day high which stands at 3.43. However, in Tuesday's trade that will be lowered to 3.35 as the chart structure starts to improve next week. Natural gas prices are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the short-term trend is lower. It looks to me that prices could retest the February 28th low of 2.88 as mild temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States continue to pressure this market here for the short-term. If prices do break the contract low, I think we could head all the way down to 2.50 as overproduction & massive supplies are keeping a lid on prices as this trend is getting stronger on a daily basis. In my opinion, stay short as I'm looking at adding more contracts on any price rally.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the July contract is currently trading at 47.50 a barrel after settling last Friday in New York at 49.80 down about $2.30 for the trading week hitting a three-week low. Crude oil prices are now trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average with the trend turning negative despite a 6.4 million barrel draw down which was released in Thursday's EIA report. That's the largest draw down in 2017, but it was unable to rally prices as an increase in production out of the country of Libya coupled with weak data coming out of China continues to put pressure on prices in the short term. I think prices can retest the May 5th low around 44.13 as oversupply issues continue to keep a lid on prices with Rig counts in the United States continuing to increase as this market remains bearish. The chart structure in oil is poor, and I'm not involved in this commodity because the monetary risk is too high, The risk/reward is not in your favor, however, keep a focus on this commodity as we could be involved soon.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Dow Jones Industrial Futures

The Dow Jones in the June contract is hitting another all-time high once again today up 60 points currently at 21,190. I have been recommending a bullish position from just above the 21,000 level and if you took the trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 20,622. This market remains very bullish in my opinion. In Monday's trade that stop loss will be raised to 20,766 and then in Tuesday's trade it will be increased to 20,837 as the chart structure is outstanding at present and the risk/reward are highly in your favor. Low-interest rates continue to fuel the stock market to the upside coupled with the excellent earnings across all sectors as who knows how high prices can go. I'm certainly not going to pick the top in this market as the stock market can rally for an extended period historically speaking. The Dow Jones is trading far above it's 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as volatility has come to a crawl. The VIX index which measures volatility is at historical lows, and that tells me that higher prices are ahead. Continue to place the proper stop loss while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT - IMPROVING

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.92 a bushel while currently trading at 3.92 unchanged for the trading week and still stuck in the 3-month consolidation. I'm still waiting for the breakout to occur above 3.96 to enter into a bullish position with prices trading above their 20 & 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher. However, this market is mixed in my opinion as the good to excellent crop reading was about 65% which was expected to be about 72% as that pushed up the market earlier in the week. Estimates are around 90% of the corn has been planted in the Midwestern part of the United States, and that should be completed here over the next several days as we start to enter the hot & dry summer season. A breakout will develop soon as we are not going to stay in a sideways pattern for much longer in my opinion. The 7/10 day weather forecast has ideal temperatures with adequate rain with no drought in sight at this time. However, its a very long growing season and problems can still occur so keep a close eye on this commodity.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the July contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.38 a bushel while currently trading at 4.32 down slightly with the trading week retesting the critical support level of 4.20 in yesterday's trade. I am currently not involved in this market as this commodity remains extremely choppy in 2017. At present wheat prices are right at their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average which stands at 4.42 which is just an eyelash away. Ideal weather conditions in the Great Plains of the United States continues to keep a lid on prices with very little fresh fundamental news to push prices in either direction. Traders are awaiting the next USDA crop report which comes out in the next week or so as we enter the summer months. Volatility certainly will increase, however, look at other markets that are truly beginning to trend as wheat has nothing going for it at this time.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the July contract continue a remarkable bearish trend trading lower for the 8th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 15.05 a pound while currently trading at 14.07. I still think prices could retest the February 2016 lows around 12.50 as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis. The Brazilian Real is the biggest problem coupled with the overproduction. Who knows how low prices could go as we are trading far under the 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend clearly is to the downside. If you take a look at anything growing in Brazil with coffee, orange juice, soybeans, and sugar they continue to move lower as the devaluation of these commodities is taking place right before our eyes. I do think the 14.00 level will be broken in next week's trade and I see no reason to be bullish sugar prices even at these depressed levels. If you are short, stay short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 131.20 a pound while currently trading at 127.65 hitting a new yearly low grinding lower almost on a daily basis. I'm not currently involved in this market, but it looks to me that lower prices are ahead. Private estimates of Brazil's production is around 48.3 million bags with prices trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower with the next major level of support at 113/120. I think that will be tested in the coming weeks as the Brazilian Real remains extremely weak against the U.S dollar, therefore, devaluating anything grown in that country at present. The soft commodities, in general, remain weak with orange juice and sugar, which are also produced in Brazil continuing to hit new contract lows on a daily basis. This is putting pressure on coffee prices, and I'm certainly not recommending any bullish position as that would be counter trend trading. Picking a bottom is a very difficult thing to do over the course of time, so if you are short stay short & place the proper stop loss.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID