Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,239 an ounce while currently trading at 1,258 up about $19 for the trading week with the highest prices that we have seen since November 11th as the bullish momentum continues. At present, I am not involved in gold, but I do believe prices are going higher as I'm already involved in silver, copper, and platinum as I don't want to be too top-heavy because they all follow one another. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the short-term trend is higher as I do believe prices will retest the $1,300 level which is where gold was trading at the U.S election. If you are long a futures contract, I would place your stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at $1,217 as prices broke out in Thursday's trade as there is a lot of demand for gold & the precious metals so continue to play this to the upside in my opinion. If you have been following any of my previous blogs, I continue to say that I think the bullish trends in the commodity markets are coming, but it has been difficult in the last several months with very few trends. However, the precious metals are the strongest trending commodities at present, and that is why I am involved because trading in a non-trending market is very frustrating and difficult.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 18.10 an ounce while currently trading at 18.40 up about $0.30 for the trading week as my original recommendation was in the March contract around the 16.76 level as we have now rolled over into the May contract so continue to place your stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 17.80 as prices have now hit a 3 month high. Silver has experienced extremely low volatility over the last several weeks and that is why the chart structure is solid as I do think the volatility is going to expand tremendously in the coming weeks as $19 is the next target as this trend continues to get stronger on a weekly basis while still trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher. The U.S dollar is down 30 points as that's what silver prices really need is a weaker dollar as that could certainly push prices even above $19 as I'm currently recommending many bullish precious metal trades. Adding to winners and exiting losers is the way to trade as I have been adding mini contracts several times including in yesterday's trade as I still think higher prices are ahead.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,006 an ounce while currently trading at $1,026 as I have been recommending a bullish position from around the $1,008 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10-day low standing at $990 on a closing basis as we actually touched that price earlier in the week only to rally. Platinum prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as gold has broken out to new highs this Friday morning sending platinum prices higher as I am recommending bullish positions in copper, silver, and I am bullish gold, however I don't have a recommendation as that would be an overload in one sector. Next major level of resistance is the February 9th high of $1,032, and if that is broken, I think we could head sharply higher as there is strong demand for the precious metals at present and if the U.S dollar can ever show some weakness I think that could put gas on the flames. The chart structure will not improve for another eight days, so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk as prices have major support around the $990 level which was hit on multiple occasions only to rally every time so stay long & place the proper stop loss and look for weakness to add more contracts.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.72 a pound while currently trading at 2.68 down 400 points as I was originally recommending a bullish position in the March contract from 2.62 rolling over into the May contract and if you're still in the trade place your stop loss at the 10-day low which stands at 2.65 as the chart structure is outstanding at present. Copper prices are now trading below their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average as prices remain volatile, but have really gone nowhere over the last several weeks as the largest copper mine in Chile was on strike as that looks to be waning at present sending prices lower. The next major level of resistance is the contract high around 2.80 which is quite a distance away so continue to place the proper stop loss as the precious metals remain strong in my opinion as the chart structure is outstanding therefore the monetary risk currently is low. Copper prices were the 1st precious metal to breakout to the upside as now the rest of that sector has caught up as they are rallying across the board this Friday afternoon as these are the strongest trends out of the commodity sector.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 53.78 a barrel while currently trading at 54.20 up about $0.40 continuing its bullish momentum as I am looking at buying a futures contract if prices break the 55 level on a closing basis while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low which now stands at 53.12 so keep a close eye on this market for the breakout to occur. Oil prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that short-term trend is higher as OPEC actually said what they were going to do as they did cut production as that has propped up prices & I do think that will continue as they want to see crude oil get back to the 65/$70 level. Crude oil has been in a tight 10 week consolidation, so a breakout is looming in my opinion as my theory states the longer the consolidation, the stronger the trend once the breakout occurs as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time therefore the monetary risk is relatively low especially for such a volatile commodity. The U.S dollar is unchanged still around the 101 level, and that is what's really keeping a lid on many of the agricultural and commodities in general as I'm just hoping that the dollar starts to weaken in the coming weeks, therefore, pushing up prices.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.55 a bushel while currently trading at 4.47 as I have been recommending a bullish position in the March contract around 4.40 then rolling into the May contract and if prices close below 4.49 it is time to exit & take a small loss as the grain market currently looks like a giant pig. The entire grain sector continues to drift lower as there is very little trend in this sector as the best trends are in the precious metals which I'm currently long so wait for the close to exit this position as we probably will not be involved in this sector for another 4 to 6 weeks as there is very little fundamental news to push prices in either direction. Wheat prices are trading below their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average telling you that short-term trend is mixed as I have tried a bullish position several times over the last couple months, but it fizzles every single time as this trade has been frustrating. I also exited my corn position which I was in for about a month basically breaking even as that shows you how little volatility there is in this market as I'm looking at other trends their beginning and I am happy the way the precious metals are acting as I do think that's the trend that will continue so place the proper stop loss & move on.
TREND: MIXED - LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Lean Hog Futures

Hog futures in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 79.27 while currently trading at 76.90 falling out of bed over the last several trading sessions before rebounding in today's trade as I am looking at a possible short position as we are right near a 4 week low. Hog prices topped out around the 80 level which was tested on multiple occasions only to fail every single time as the agricultural markets in general across the board look weak so keep a close eye on this market to the downside while placing the stop loss above 80 in next week's trade risking around $1,200 per contract plus slippage and commission, but we need the break out to occur first before entering. Hog prices are trading below their 20 but still above their 100-day moving average as this has been one of the strongest trends in 2017 as the front month hogs rallied over 50% from last year's lows, however everything comes to an end as all the other agricultural markets look to go lower making it very difficult for this market to continue its strength. The chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering monetary risk as I think the livestock sector is overpriced, but trading is all about risk and nothing else as markets can act irrationally at times.
TREND: MIXED - LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 20.26 a pound while currently trading 19.80 down nearly 50 points for the trading week breaking out of a tight 7-week consolidation as I am looking at entering into a short position in next week's trade. The 10 day high stands at 20.94 risking around $1,300 per contract plus slippage & commission which is too much for this commodity at this time so wait for some type of rally in Monday's trade to enter into a short position therefore lowering the monetary risk as the chart structure will not improve for another 7 trading sessions. Sugar prices are now trading below their 20 & 100-day moving average for the first time in months telling you that the short-term trend is lower as prices have traded negative for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as that would be counter trend trading which is a dangerous thing to do over the course of time. Many of the agricultural markets continue to drift lower due to a strong U.S dollar as that's the problem with sugar prices at the current time as production levels in Brazil remain high so keep a close eye on this market to the downside.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the May contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 10.43 a bushel while currently trading at 10.23 down $0.20 continuing its bearish momentum hitting a 6 week low as I've been sitting on the sidelines advising clients to avoid this market as the choppiness remains. Soybean prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower, however the 10-day high stands at 10.75 as I'm not willing to risk $0.50 on his trade so I will avoid the grain market as I just think this sector remains stagnant until April/May spring planting occurs. Estimates for the 2017 acres to be planted are between 88/90 million acres which could produce another massive record crop between 4.6/4.8 billion bushels and if that is the case I have to say it is very difficult for soybeans to rally no matter what happens this summer as supplies will be overwhelming as I'm very surprised they are allowing that many acres to be planted. At the current time, I am out of the grain market as it continues to go nowhere as my main focus is on the precious metals as that is the true strength to the upside so avoid the grains at the present time as there is no money to be made in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.