Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,151 an ounce while currently trading at 1,177 up about $26 for the trading week as I have been sitting on the sideline's in this market for several months as a possible bottom now may have been formed. The chart structure is poor at present as the 10-day low stands at 1,129 as the monetary risk is way too high to enter at this point so keep a close eye on this market on any type of price retracement & a couple more days off the calendar then we could be entering a possible bullish position as I do think the commodity markets will move higher in 2017. Gold prices are now trading above their 20-day but still far below their 100-day moving average has this has been a longer-term bearish trend for several years as the U.S dollar is still hovering right near 14 year high as that is the main culprit to the precious metals in recent history coupled with the fact of a very strong U.S stock market continuing to take money out of the precious metals and into other sectors. However, that seems to be waning at present. Gold prices bottomed out on December 15th around 1,124 as we await today's U.S monthly unemployment number which certainly will send more volatility into this market.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.99 an ounce while currently trading at 16.52 up over $0.50 the trading week hitting a 3 week high as I've also been sitting on the sidelines in this market waiting for a real breakout to occur. Silver prices bottomed out on December 20th at 15.67 as I still think historically speaking silver prices look very cheap, but the real breakout is above 17.30 which is still about $0.80 away so let's keep an eye on this market as I do not think we will be involved for at least several more weeks. Silver prices are also trading above their 20 but still below their 100-day moving average just like the gold market as these charts basically mirror each other at present, but it seems to me the strength of the U.S dollar has already been reflected in silver prices. Volatility in silver is relatively low at the current time, and I don't think that will last much longer as I do think 2017 will be much more volatile in stocks and commodities throughout the year as I think this will be a very exciting year as the bearish trends I believe are finished.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.5055 a pound while currently trading at 2.5335 up about 300 points for the trading week hitting a 2 week high holding major support on the daily chart. If you have read any of my previous blogs I was looking at a possible short position, however I never did initiate the trade as I'm telling investments just to avoid this market at present as I think prices are just consolidating the massive run up right after the Trump election was announced as I think sideways action probably is here to stay for a little while. Copper prices are right at their 20-day but still far above their 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as the chart structure is improving on a daily basis as we could be involved in this market in the next couple weeks possibly to the upside as the perception of growth in 2017 is upon us and that is why you are seeing rallies across the board including another record high in the U.S stock market. The U.S monthly jobs report was released this morning adding about 158,000 new jobs which was pretty much neutral as the copper trade at present is technically based in my opinion so look at other markets that are beginning to trend at the current time.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.72 while currently trading at 3.31 down over 40 points for the trading week in an extremely volatile trade as I have not participated in this market over the last several months as I am also advising clients to avoid as it has terrible chart structure. In my opinion I do believe that natural gas prices are limited to the downside as we are in the heart of the extreme volatile season of winter with prices on a daily basis having tremendous swings as the gap was filled which was created on November 25th , however the gap that was created on November 21st has not been filled & is still about 15 points away. Natural gas prices hit a contract high just last week around the 3.90 level & now is trading below its 20 and 100-day moving average hitting a 6 week low telling you that the short-term trend is lower ,but the 10 day high is too far away so move on & look at other markets that have a better risk/reward scenario at the present time.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 10.04 a bushel currently trading at 10.07 basically unchanged for the trading week as I was looking at a possible short position earlier in the week, but I will avoid this market as I just think prices are very limited to the up and downside so look at other markets with higher potential. Traders are awaiting the next USDA crop report which will be released next week as volatility is relatively low at present. However, that will change as we are now looking at 2017 acres being planted which will definitely send volatility back into this market. The weather down in South America and especially Brazil is ideal at the current time as there is very little bullish fundamental news to push prices higher as soybeans are still trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower, but I just don't see too much excitement until the month of March. In 2016 the United States produced another record crop around 4.3 billion bushels as I have a hard time believing that will happen again this year as the grain market has been plagued by over planting and outstanding crops over the last 4 years as something has to change to turn the tide.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.08 a bushel while currently trading at 4.24 up about 16 cents for the week as I am now recommending a bullish position from this level while placing the stop loss at the 10 day low of 3.92 risking around 32 cents or 1,600 per contract or $320 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. Wheat prices have hit a 6 week high with major resistance at 4.30/4.40 & if that is broken you have to think that the bullish trend would continue as prices are now trading above their 20-day and right at their 100-day moving average as volatility certainly will come back into this market in my opinion. The chart structure will start to improve as the 10 day low will be raised in Tuesday's trade to 4.00 therefore lowering the monetary risk as I do think this commodity has potential unlike many of the other grains at present as investors are keeping a close eye on the weather in the Great Plains part of the United States as crop ratings have been deteriorating over the last several weeks. Wheat prices have rallied about $0.30 off contract lows which was just touched in late December as this has been a bearish longer-term trend for several years, but everything comes to an end as I do think a possible double bottom has been confirmed.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.52 a bushel while currently trading at 3.61 up about 9 cents for the trading week right at major resistance on the daily chart between 3.65/3.70 as that will be the true breakout to the upside in my opinion. At present, I only have one grain recommendation and that is a bullish wheat position as I do think corn prices are limited. However, I do believe that corn prices will grind higher in 2017 as prices are in a major bottoming out pattern in my opinion. If you take a look at the daily chart I think that we have a possible head & shoulders bottom created as prices are now trading above their 20 & 100 day moving average as the trend is higher as crude oil prices are right near $54 a barrel and I think that is pushing up corn which is used as an ethanol product, but the real volatility will not start to take place until the month of March once we find out how many acres will be planted in 2017. If you are corn producer my recommendation would be to hold onto your crops as I do think $4 will be hit this spring, but who knows if any type of weather situation develops like it did in 2012 prices could go much higher as I do think commodities are in bullish trends.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 2126 while currently trading at 2252 rallying sharply off of the contract low which was just hit in Tuesday's trade at 2119 as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting to enter into a bullish position as prices are right near a 2 week high. Cocoa prices are trading above its 20-day moving average for the first time in months telling me that the trend might be changing, but still below their 100-day moving average as the 4 week high stands at 2337 which is still about 90 points away as the chart structure is not solid at the current time, so you're going to have to be patient & keep a close eye on this market. Cocoa prices can become extremely volatile as I am surprised that prices have traded this low as I've talked about in many previous blogs picking tops and bottoms is an extremely dangerous idea as that's why you must let the market start to trend before entering. Many of the commodity markets and especially the soft commodities have rallied as I do think the bullish momentum will continue.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 19.51 a pound while currently trading at 20.63 up about 120 points for the trading week in a remarkable bullish run now hitting a 7 week high as I was stopped out of my bearish position last week when prices hit the 10-day high as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines in the entire soft commodity sector. The problem with sugar at the present time is the chart structure is terrible as prices have absolutely skyrocketed on weather concerns down in Brazil also pushing up coffee prices which I'm keeping a close eye on a possible bullish position as this market turned on a dime and is now trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher. As a trader, you always must have an exit strategy as prices have surged much higher since the 10-day high occurred as no strategy is ever perfect, but you must be consistent with your strategy in my opinion as there are more ways to skin a cat. The commodity markets, in general, look very strong in my opinion as I've talked about in many previous blogs I think we are going to have a positive year to the upside as the trends could be strong.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 137.05 while currently trading at 144.10 trading higher for the 6th consecutive trading session right near a 2 week high as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines in this market waiting for a breakout to occur which would happen above the 4 week high around 145.25 which is just an eyelash away. The U.S dollar was down about 50 points this week helping support many commodities which are starting to look bullish in my opinion. Coffee prices bottomed out on December 28th around the 132.85 level as I still believe like I have written in previous blogs coffee prices are cheap as we are entering the very volatile season for prices. At the current time, I do not have any trade recommendations on as I was short cotton and sugar getting stopped out in both markets as I do think growth is coming back into the United States in 2017 which is bullish stock and commodity prices. The chart structure in this market is poor at present so even if prices do hit the four-week high I probably will not take the trade until the monetary risk is lowered which will still take another 5 days.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR