Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 60.54 a barrel in July contract while currently trading at 59.72 down about $1.00 this Friday afternoon trading below its 20 day but above its 100 day moving average as the trend currently is mixed. I will be recommending a short position if oil breaks $50 a barrel then placing your stop loss above the 10 day high but at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for a breakout to occur as the U.S dollar was up 300 points this trading week reversing much of its recent losses putting pressure on many commodity prices in the last several days. Sometimes as a trader the best thing to do is sit on the sidelines and be patient and wait for a trend to develop as this market could be headed to the downside in my opinion next week so keep a close eye on this market as a possible trade is coming. Its Memorial Day weekend here in the United States which creates high demand for unleaded gasoline as millions of Americans will be on the road in the next several days, however I think that’s already been priced into the market as the fundamentals I do believe will turn bearish once again but avoid choppy markets as they are very difficult to trade successfully in my opinion and wait for the breakouts to occur which could happen in Tuesday trade.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the June contract are trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend remains mixed as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time as prices are stuck in an eight week consolidation. The U.S dollar was up over 300 points for the trading week as the ECB basically stated that they will add more stimulus to push the Euro currency lower as the tide has turned and I see no reason to own gold at the present time coupled with the fact that the stock market is hitting another all-time high as interest is in the equities and not in the precious metals. The next breakout is around 1,230 to the upside but the chart structure is poor at the current time so look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the U.S dollar in my opinion looks to break 100 in the coming weeks which will continue to put pressure on gold prices. Gold settled last Friday at 1,225 an ounce while currently trading at 1,205 down $20 for the trading week as Memorial Day weekend is upon us.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Soybean Futures

Soybean futures in the November contract which is concerned the new crop which will be harvested this October finished lower for the 4th consecutive trading session closing around 9.08 a bushel after settling last Friday at 9.34 finishing down over $.25 as the weather in the Midwestern part of the United States has been excellent pushing prices lower. I’ve been recommending a short position in soybeans when prices broke 9.35 & if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 9.55 still risking $.47 or $2,400 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact that prices have declined precipitously. Soybean futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as there’s very little bullish fundamental news to dictate prices higher here in the short-term as carryover levels are at 500 million bushels which is at historical highs coupled with the fact that a possible 3.9 billion bushels could be produced in the United States once again as unless there’s some type of weather event such as a drought I think soybean prices can trade around the $7.50 range later this year. If you are a farmer I highly suggest that you have some type of hedge on even at today’s depressed levels as prices could still fall much farther in my opinion as traders await the Memorial Day holiday weekend which should send volatility into Tuesday’s trade as I think prices will continue to move lower next week.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the July contract settled down 6 cents this Friday in Chicago at 5.16 a bushel after settling last Friday at 5.11 in an extremely volatile trading week as prices are reacting day in and day out as reports about crop quality are sending prices sharply lower or higher on any given day. I was recommending a short position several weeks ago getting stopped out around the $5 level as I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is very poor which tells me that the risk is too high at the current time to take a position so look at other markets that are beginning to trend. The grain market as a whole has been very weak in recent weeks except for the wheat market as traders await the Memorial Day weekend which should send even more volatility in Tuesdays trade as I don’t like choppy and extremely volatile markets so wait for the chart structure to improve but it certainly looks to me that 4.60 was the short-term bottom. The weather in certain parts of the Great Plains in the United States is too wet also with Russia and Australia dealing with hot & dry weather which have pushed up prices from around $4.60 over the last several weeks as the true breakout does not occur until prices break 5.40 in my opinion.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session as I was recommending a bullish futures position when prices broke out around 13.55 getting stopped out this week around the 12.66 level losing around 90 points or $1,000 plus slippage and commission as that trade went south immediately. Sugar futures are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting a 7 week low as I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure remains poor at the current time. Sugar futures settled last Friday at 12.86 while currently trading at 12.37 down about 50 points for the trading week as this market remains extremely choppy as I will wait for a lower risk entry point which could be several weeks away in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain choppy as I have very few recommendations at the current time as I’m trend follower but the one thing that I do understand is that the trends will come back it just may take some time so be patient as volatility will come back.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 66.84 while currently trading at 63.57 down about 320 points for the trading week as excellent weather conditions in the southern part of the United States are helping the cotton crop to begin the growing season on a positive note as I’m still sitting on the sidelines at the current time as the chart structure is very poor which means that the risk is too high for me to enter into a new trade. The U.S dollar was up over 300 points this week hitting a 3 week high pressuring many of the agricultural commodities this week as cotton prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average, as the fundamental side is bearish as supplies are very large as China and India have huge reserves which should keep a lid on prices in the short-term. Cotton prices should experience an increase in volatility as we enter the critical summer months which can produce a drought coupled with lower production because of less planted acres, however at this point in time it’s too early in the spring as the United States will not produce a record crop in 2015 but as a trader I look for risk/reward criteria and chart structure so at the current time I’m looking at other markets that are beginning to trend keeping an eye on cotton as eventually a trend will develop.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in July contract are lower for the 4th consecutive trading session at 126.50 a pound hitting a fresh contract low trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average as world production was raised to 154.5 million bags above recent estimates sending coffee prices sharply lower as I was recommending a short position, however I got stopped out as prices hit the 10 day high and I’m now sitting on the sidelines as the risk is too high in my opinion. The chart structure in coffee is terrible at the current time but I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as prices could retest the September 2013 lows around 105 a pound in the coming weeks as worldwide production seems to be growing on a weekly basis. As a trader I look for the risk/reward to be in your favor coupled with very solid chart structure but at the current time this market does not meet either of those theories so I have to wait for better chart structure to develop as it might take a week or so depending on market activity, however lower prices look to be ahead as many of the agricultural markets especially the soft commodities continue to move lower in the short-term, however oversold conditions currently exist in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 3.83 a bushel while currently trading at 3.79 down slightly for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position for the last month in this commodity when prices broke the 3.95 level as the 10 day high stop loss was at 3.85 earlier in the week which on Monday closed slightly above that level but we decided to stick with it one more day as prices remain choppy. I’m still recommending a short position while still continuing to place your stop loss on a closing basis around the 3.85 level and that’s why I tell clients to contact me by phone if one of our trades settles right near or at the 10 day high deciding on what decision there is to make because sometimes you will risk a little more and other times you will not depending on market conditions. Corn planting is 85% complete as of last Monday and I suspect next week will be finished as the weather in the state of Illinois is outstanding at the current time as we are off to a very solid start to the growing season in 2015, however it’s a very long growing season with many possibilities of weather problems developing. Estimates of the corn crop are around 13.6 billion bushels which is 500 million less than last year but carryover levels are historically very high as we produced back to back record crops and that should keep supplies ample in the short term. Corn futures are trading below 20 and 100 day moving average, however the problem is this market has gone sideways for the last three weeks looking for a breakout to occur as traders are awaiting the Memorial Day weekend as the grain market will not reopen until Monday night as the growing season is officially underway which will increase volatility exponentially.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade?

I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

SEERY FUTURES ACCEPTS CANADIAN COMMODITY ACCOUNTS

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: (800) 615-7649


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