We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Japanese Yen--- How much lower can the Japanese Yen go against the U.S Dollar? I keep talking about the Yen on several different occasions and I remain very bearish while it is trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average down over 200 points last week and down 133 points this week creating another 2 ½ year low and this Friday afternoon down over 100 points again continuing the best down trend in the commodity markets in the last couple of months. The Yen is down for the 3rd consecutive trading session trading at 1.1213 continuing its steep decline in recent weeks and in my opinion I believe the Yen is headed down to the 105 level in the next couple of weeks due to the fact that the Japanese government is forcing the Yen lower against the U.S dollar trying to spur their exports and improve their economy by lowering the value of their currency hitting a fresh 2 1/2 year low once again today and I am still advising traders to be short the Japanese Yen. Remember when you trade commodities you will be wrong sometimes so you must put a stop loss and not marry your position because never getting out causes exaggerated monetary losses so always risk between 1-2% of your account balance on any given trade trying to minimize risk. TREND: LOWER–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
Precious Metal Futures--- The precious metals this week saw volatile trading action with gold this Friday afternoon down around $18 dollars an ounce and still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average, however finishing the week higher by about $10 still stuck in a sideways to lower trend with the next major support between 1,620 – 1,600 which could be tested next week. Silver futures for the March contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average and have been trading sideways in the last 3 weeks consolidating the downturn that took place last month still trading higher by about $.40 for the trading week despite the fact that the Euro currency hit a fresh 10-month highs today up another 86 points currently trading at 1.3344 which is generally extremely bullish the precious metals but today traders are selling despite a weaker dollar. Copper futures for the March contract were also lower by 530 points in early trading at 3.6550 a pound down slightly for the week but still trading right near a 3 month highs on the fact that the housing market looks to be bottoming which is propping up copper prices because demand from China and other economies are improving and take a look at Palladium which is still right near contract highs although trading lower today by $10 before rallying again on the close to finish up slightly at 703 as this product is used in the automobile industry which is coming back strongly because there is solid demand and platinum which also was lower today down by about $3 today at 1, 631 still trading far above its 20 &100 day moving average right near a 3 month highs as this product is also used in the automobile industry which is very strong at this point propping up demand for platinum as well. In my opinion I’m advising traders to sit on the sideline because there really is no trend in the metals at this point and wait for something to develop to the downside or the upside. These markets have been very choppy in the last couple of months even though they have headed lower but also have many up days just like yesterday finishing higher by more than $20 stopping many traders out and that can be very aggravating over the course of time so in my opinion if you wait for a solid trend to develop you have better odds of success going with the trend than getting stuck in a sideways channel and getting chopped up. TREND: MIXED –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Stock Futures--- The S&P 500 is slightly lower this Friday afternoon but for the week ended on a positive note up 7 points in a relatively quiet and nonvolatile trading week still right near five-year highs as optimism remains in the stock market due to the fact that the fiscal cliff was kicked down the road once again while the taxes on dividends and capital gains were raised only slightly up but not near as much as was anticipated pushing money back into this sector still trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average which is always a positive indicator in my opinion. The NASDAQ futures also were up around 20 points for the trading week slightly lower this Friday afternoon only right near a 3 month high still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average despite the weakness in Apple which is currently trading around $525 a share off of its highs which is the reason why the NASDAQ is not at the five-year high like the S&P 500 while the Dow futures are trading above the 20 &100 day moving average on optimism that 2013 will be a growth year with possible double digit returns in the stock market once again. In my opinion I am bullish the stock market and S&P 500 and I do believe we will be at all-time highs by Christmas of this year but there could be some bumps in the road in March due to the fact that debt ceiling nonsense is coming back once again but fundamentals are strong and balance sheets are solid and there’s a lot of money on the sideline and I do believe economies around the world are improving and I do believe that the United States economy is very solid at this point which is going to eventually push up stock prices while commodity prices will join the party eventually in my opinion. I do believe that money will start to flow out of the treasuries and be put to work in other sectors such as stocks and commodities with a higher interest rate environment approaching. In the next couple of weeks quarterly earnings will be coming out on a daily basis which will provide short-term direction and in my opinion I do believe that the earnings will be very solid and I think that this market will continue to grind higher here in the short term. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Sugar Futures--- Sugar futures ended the week very quiet closing right around 19.17 a pound in the March contract breaking above its 20 day moving average which was at 19.12 and in my opinion I believe sugar prices have bottomed while their 100 day moving average which is at 19.79 while sugar is still right near contract lows which were struck on December 13th at 18.31 before rebounding to retest the $.20 level before coming back and retesting the contract lows last Wednesday at 18.52 and unable to break and push to new lows and now have rallied back up to 18.95 and what could be a possible double bottom in the sugar futures. Many of the soft commodities might be in a bottoming pattern including coffee, orange juice, cocoa, and the possibility that sugar has bottomed in the short term especially with unleaded gasoline making new recent highs recently which generally is a bullish indicator for sugar futures because sugar is used as a bio diesel as well. Many of the commodity markets were sharply lower today before the USDA crop report sent corn prices sharply higher also helping sugar prices finish positive, however sugar futures remained in a tight range waiting for some new fundamental news to propel prices. TREND: SIDEWAYS –CHART STRUCTURE:EXCELLENT
Orange Juice Futures--- The USDA crop report came out at 11 o’clock central time this morning stating that 2012- 2013 crop was 8.83 million tons down 2% from the previous forecast and the final crop size with the yield forecasts for the 2012 – 2013 season at 1.61 down for box unchanged from the December forecast but down 1% from last year’s final yielding 1.63 gallons per box and in my opinion with the frost season pretty much behind this I think you will see an excellent crop harvested in the near future. Orange juice futures were up for the 3rd consecutive trading session before selling off on the close finishing around 112.50 down 30 points for the trading day after 10 consecutive losing trading sessions coming from about 1.45 all the way down 1.07 and now bottoming and in my opinion. I believe orange juice prices look very attractive down at these levels with many of the soft commodities in my opinion bottoming including coffee, sugar, cotton, and possibly orange juice so I’m advising traders to take a shot at the upside placing a stop below the contract lows trying to minimize your risk if you are wrong on the trade. TREND: SIDEWAYS –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures are rallying for the 2nd consecutive day placing the odds that a short term bottom might be in place hitting a 4 week high with major resistance only an eyelash away at 155.00 and we are currently trading in the March contract at 153.35 up 320 points right at session highs and right at weekly highs as well prompting traders to now get out of their short positions since it’s a 4 week high and now going long the market pushing the price higher. On the daily chart it looks to me that a rounding bottom has occurred up around 600 points for the trading week now trading above its 20 day moving average but still below its 100 day moving average which is at 161.15 and in my opinion I believe coffee could be there by next week if you look at some of the option premiums they have been moving higher in recent days as speculators are betting that volatility will increase in the short term. As I’ve stated in previous blogs I believe coffee has bottomed and if you’re looking to get into a long position I would place a stop below the contract low trying to minimize my risk to 1 or 2% of your trading account balance in case you are wrong. TREND:HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Grain Futures-- The grain market this Friday was mixed with extreme volatility like last summer when we had large price swings with wheat hitting an 8 month low when it was weaker in early trade reversing sharply finishing higher by about $.13 right around 7.56 a bushel and traded as low as 7.36 a bushel on the USDA report that showed wheat planted only 41.8 million acres which was on the low end of the range while also lowering supply slightly. Corn futures had a wild trading day at one point traded as low as 6.86 in the March contract before skyrocketing on the fact that the final crop ended at 10.78 billion bushels which was on the low end of expectation sending corn prices of $.11 a bushel and 7.10 off of session highs with the next major resistance at 7.35 having a terrific week ending higher by around $.30 hitting a 3 week high as well on concerns that the carryover is too low. Soybeans ended up the year with 3.015 billion bushels versus expectation of 2.971 billion bushels which is amazing to me with the drought which occurred here in the Midwest the after crop tells me that the soybeans really can never have been for crop because the seeds now are engineered to withstand drought sending soybean prices down about $.4 at 13.74 the March contract trading of both sides of unchanged today. The USDA also raised the Brazilian crop which also put pressure on the soybeans because that crop should be harvested in around 8 weeks. I have been bearish the grain market I still remain bearish wheat, corn, and soybeans due to the fact that the demand is slowing down at these high levels plus a record harvest coming out of South America putting ample pressure on prices in the next 6 to 10 weeks. In my opinion I believe today was massive short covering especially in wheat and corn because the crop report does not merit such gains. TREND: MIXED –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
When Is A Consolidation Important? There are many different theories about how long does a meaningful consolidation have to last before you enter a trade on the breakout to the up or downside? In my opinion I always want to see a consolidation that lasts at least 8 or more weeks before I would consider entering. The reason that I want a longer consolidation is to try and avoid a bunch of false breakouts such as a 10 or 15 day consolidations which happen all the time, so I am trying to put the odds in my favor by trading the breakout of at least 8 weeks or more and the longer such as a 11 or 13 week consolidation the better. At this present time 2 commodities are in a major consolidation including wheat which is in a 14 week tight channel looking to breakout very soon and feeder cattle which is at a 13 week consolidation.
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
You would think with a smaller WHEAT CROP AND DRUGHT CONDITIONS Wheat would.rally..I think a good buy now is on oats..They uasually rally with the corn...