We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Currency Futures--- Currency markets today are trading mixed with the Euro currency breaking down 80 points currently trading at 1.2860 causing the U.S dollar to rally sharply by 46 points hitting a fresh six-week high currently trading at 80.56 right near session highs after the Labor Department released the monthly unemployment figures which added 171, 000 new jobs for the month of October with an unemployment rate 7.9%. The Canadian dollar which is been very weak in recent weeks is actually higher today by 25 points trading at 1.0052 and in my opinion is still in a bear market and I do believe will head lower from these levels while the Mexican peso which I have been bearish and wrong so far is up another 50 points 7690 following the U.S stock market today. The Japanese yen has hit a new six-month low down another 70 points at 1.24 with the next major support all the way down to the 120 level still 400 points away and in my opinion I believe that this bear market will continue. The Australian dollar is higher for the 4th consecutive trading session at 1.0357 at a fresh five week high now looking at possibly making new contract highs which were hit mid-September right around 1.0550. TREND: U.S DOLLAR—HIGHER---CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Precious Metal Futures—The precious metals in New York today are sharply lower across the board with gold futures for the December contract down $39 at 1, 677 hitting a fresh 2 month low continuing its bearish momentum as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am bearish the commodity sectors and I am definitely bearish the precious metals with gold now looking to cross its 100 day moving average at 1, 671 which could be within the next couple of trading sessions as investors are liquidating their holdings in the precious metals sector. Silver futures are down $1.30 at 31.00 right near session lows and also looking at its 100 day moving average which is at 30.49 which also in my opinion I think be struck next week continuing its bearish momentum due to the fact of slowing economies around the world finally coming into fruition as commodity prices are starting to erase all of their QE3 gains. Copper futures which I have been bearish for a long time are down another 700 points breaking of 100 day moving average once again at 347.50 a pound and an absolute bloodbath New York today. As I have talked about many times I believe that a major slowdown across the world is developing and I think commodity prices are way too high and if you look at the historical charts they still could go much lower in my opinion possibly back down to the five-year average. The U.S dollar is sharply higher against foreign currencies today which are causing the selloff in the commodity markets with every single market down today except the U.S dollar which is up by about 50 points which is putting severe pressure on oil, grains, and the precious metals sector. TREND: LOWER -- CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Energy Futures--- The energy markets this afternoon in New York were sharply lower with crude oil hitting a fresh 4 month low down by $2.00 a barrel at 85.10 still trading way below its 20 and 100 day moving averages continuing its bearish momentum with the next major support at the contract lows which was in late June around $80 a barrel. Unleaded gasoline futures reversed earlier gains now down 524 points currently trading in the December contract at 2.5795 a gallon breaking its 100 day moving average which was 2.62 coming into today’s session also continuing its bearish momentum as I have stated in many previous blogs I am bearish the commodity sector and extremely bearish the energy sector which has ample supply and waning demand. Heating oil futures crossed their 100 day moving averages today at 2.99 and now is trading at 2.96 on the lows in the session down over 700 points also continuing its bearish momentum and I also think it will hit June lows or at least retest the 2.80 level in the next couple of weeks. Many of the commodity markets are sharply lower today due to the fact that the U.S dollar is breaking out to a six week high against foreign currencies with the Euro currency down almost 100 points which is putting pressure on all of the commodities this afternoon. In my opinion I still believe prices are headed lower across the board with volatility picking up after this Tuesdays presidential election so look for some big moves next week. Natural gas futures continue to slide down another 11 points in the January contract at 3.71 I’ve stated many times I have been bearish the sector I believe prices could head a lot lower from these levels and this was the 5th consecutive down day in natural gas prices hitting a 4 week low due to the fact that we are almost at all-time highs in supply and we also having mild weather here in the Midwest. TREND : LOWER---CHART STRUCTURE : EXCELLENT
Grain Futures---The grain market today traded mixed with soybeans lower by $.34 in the January contract currently trading at 15.26 a bushel continuing its choppy and sideways action with major support in the lower $15 area and major resistance around 15.80 with really no trend in sight. Corn futures are also in the same dilemma trading sideways for the last month or so down another 12 cents at 7.39 after yesterday reaching as high as 7.62 but unable to continue to move higher due to the fact of a very strong U.S dollar today causing many commodities to trade sharply lower except for wheat which finished only 2 cents lower at 8.66 a bushel on a report that wheat crop planting is lagging with excessive rains in parts of Indiana and Ohio causing concern keeping prices firm for the time being. The grain market has been very choppy in the last month and I do believe prices are headed lower but at this point in time I’m not advising any positions in the market because of the fact that one day soybeans are up $.30 the next day down $.30 so it’s a very difficult market to play unless you are a day trader so wait for a trend to develop on the up or downside. In my opinion soybeans are still at a very high price with the global demand slowing down with many of the commodity markets selling off. Oat futures are down another 11 cents 3.69 down 20 cents for the week also putting some pressure on the corn market because oats are used as feed ingredient as well. The next grain report is on November 9th which will show supply demand plus the actual crop production of this year and in the last two reports corn traded limit up so let’s see if this report will do the same, however every time we rallied off of those reports prices have always reversed in the next couple of days only to trade right back down to where the price was before the report. You have to remember if you look at these prices historically these are still extremely high prices because corn used to trade in the low $2 dollars back in 2005 and soybeans that year traded in the $5 range for quite some time so these prices are still extremely high historically so if you do believe there is a big-time slowdown coming than you would want to accumulate a short position speculating that prices could still go much further from these levels also depending on the South American crop which is at this point could be a record. TREND : LOWER—SIDEWAYS---CHART STRUCTURE—EXCELLENT
Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in New York traded in a tight range finishing up 10 points in the December contract closing around 70.30 right near a fresh four month low and in my opinion prices look like they have topped out at $.77 level which was hit earlier in the month and possibly could head back down the contract lows of around 65.00 which were hit four months ago. The reason for my thinking is the fact that world consumption is slowing down especially with the Chinese and emerging market recessions putting a lid on demand while having huge inventories of cotton at this point in time. Cotton prices two years ago during the first QE1 rallied significantly to all-time highs that you hadn't seen since the post-Civil War, however after that farmers planted everything in sight and prices have dropped dramatically while this QE3 has not prompted prices up one bit that just tells you what a glut of supply and lack of demand there is for this product at this time so look to trade cotton to the downside remembering always to use a stop loss trying to risk 1 to 2% of your account balance on any given trade trying to reduce losses. TREND: LOWER -- CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broke feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures are higher in early trade in New York today up 100 points at 154.50 a pound looking to retest the lows from June 18, 2012 of 153.70 which now is only an eyelash away. Coffee prices continue their bearish momentum on the fact that demand is waning and prices are still relatively high historically and I do believe in my opinion that prices could head down into the low 140s which I think would be an excellent opportunity to get long if you have a longer-term investment horizon. At this point coffee is not very volatile, however as we go into the winter months and enter the early spring volatility will pick up tremendously especially when you get into the frost season of May and June which in 1994 had a double freeze in the coffee growing regions in Brazil sending coffee prices from $.75 a pound to 2.75 a pound in a very short time, however that scenario is still more than six months away so at this point in time trade with the trend and the trend is lower in coffee remembering always use stop losses in case you are wrong on any given trade. The volume in coffee has been relatively low lately doing around 10,000 contracts with prices are far below their 20 and 100 day moving average which also signals a bear market in my opinion. TREND: LOWER -- CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Sugar Futures-- Sugar futures are slightly higher by 3 points currently trading at 19.41 breaking contract lows this week at 19.48 which was hit on September 6, 2012 and now is far below its 20 and 100 day moving average continuing its bearish momentum and a possible retest of 2010 lows of around 15.50 a pound in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets were sharply lower including grains, metals, and energies. When you trade commodities always trade with the trend and the trend in the soft commodities including sugar, coffee, and orange juice are all bearish at this point. I have been bullish in previous blogs on the sugar prices however it is very difficult to be bullish a commodity when it is right near contract lows or breaking contract lows because in my opinion if contract lows are broken in this commodity sugar could head all the way back down 16 – 17 level relatively quickly. TREND: LOWER -- CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Orange Juice Futures--- Orange juice futures in New York today settled at 106.40 for the trading session hovering right near the 52-week low which happened on August 15th of this year at 105.05 and is only about 6.50% from hitting that level on extremely light volume this afternoon. Orange juice prices are far from their highs which were hit on January 10th earlier this year at 196.10 all due to the fact that hurricane season was non-existent therefore creating an abundant harvest putting supply pressure on the market, however in my opinion with major support at 105 I believe orange juice prices are becoming relatively cheap compared to the rest of the commodity markets so I’m advising traders to start taking a look at orange juice to the upside. Orange juice futures are not real liquid meaning they don’t do a lot of volume but that doesn’t mean you can’t trade the market you just have to be careful and make sure you use a stop loss trying to limit your risk because there is always risk when you place any trade in any commodity. I would sit on the side-lines and wait and see if orange juice prices come near that 105 level and then from there take a serious look at the upside because I do believe there is potential to start a fall rally. TREND: LOWER -- CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cocoa Futures--- Cocoa futures this week were up 65 points in a relatively quiet and nonvolatile action currently trading at 2444 in the December contract still maintaining its bullish trend and remaining above its 20 and 100 day moving averages and if you look on the daily chart it does continue to grind higher and remember in commodities the trend is your friend so if you’re looking to enter this market I would play to the upside remember always use a stop loss trying to minimize your risk to 1 or 2% of your account balance on any given trade therefore trying to reduce losses is much as possible because you will have losses when you trade commodities so you need to manage them as well as possible. Cocoa is not very volatile at this point in time however volatility should increase tremendously in the next couple of months especially if you start getting problems out in the Ivory Coast where Cocoa is grown then you start to see the 100 and 200 point Cocoa moves which I think are upon us in the next couple of months. TREND: LOWER -- CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Livestock Futures---Livestock futures this afternoon in Chicago were slightly higher with live cattle for the December contract finishing higher by 12 points at 125.45 a pound and now has rallied almost 300 points from last week’s low while still remaining under its 20 day and its 100 day moving average still pointing to lower live cattle prices. Live cattle prices are still about 500 points from its contract low which happened on April 27, 2012 at 1.20 and in my opinion I believe prices will retest those levels in the next coming weeks. Feeder cattle prices were slightly higher by 67 points currently trading 147.00 a pound with major resistance at 151.25, however still very far away from the contract highs on May 21st 2012 at 164.30 before the U.S drought took its toll on corn prices sending cattle prices sharply lower. The 20 day moving average in the January feeder cattle is 148.50 only an eyelash away while the 100 day average is 149.80 which is still only 280 points from today’s levels. At this point in time the feeder cattle market has absolutely no trend so I’m advising traders to sit and wait on the side-line until a trend develops while lean hog futures for the February contract were down 30 points today 83.85 a pound still hanging around recent highs due to the fact that the hog herd historically is very small and if you look at the back months in hog prices they are at all-time highs. Hog prices are above the 20 and 100 day moving averages telling me that higher prices are coming in the February contract so I’m advising traders to take advantage of any type of dip in this market and try to establish long positions remembering to always place a stop loss trying to minimize monetary losses. On November 9th the USDA will release a crop report which sometimes has an effect on cattle and hog prices because of the fact of higher or lower costs in such commodities as soybean meal and corn which can dictate if farmers will send their herd to slaughter quicker or later due to the price of feed ingredients and profitability. TREND: CATTLE—LOWER CHART STRUCTURE—FEEDER CATTLE--EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
