Hello traders everywhere, Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with a mid-day up-date for Wednesday the 28th of November.
THE FISCAL CLIFF QUASHES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE!
Consumer confidence, which jumped to its best levels in four and a half years, is taking a back seat today to the "Fiscal Cliff", which is like the 800LB gorilla in the room. Depending what the politicians do and don't do, which is a non-predictable item at the moment, the "Fiscal Cliff" is going to be the Yin and Yang of the financial markets for the next several months. I would not hold my breath waiting for politicians to make a decision quickly on the "Fiscal Cliff" as both parties are being held hostage by their own parties' far right and far left wings.
THE FISCAL CLIFF AND THE EQUITIES MARKETS
Based on our Trade Triangle technology, we still believe that the trend is negative for the equity markets. We expect to see the equity markets trade sideways before taking another downturn. Everything is going to be predicated on the "Fiscal Cliff".
SHARP DROP IN GOLD TODAY … Buying Opportunity?
Gold prices dropped sharply today, close to the $1,700 level where we expect it will find support. MarketClub's short-term daily Trade Triangle made an exit at $1,733.50 and is now neutral on gold in the short term. Longer term gold remains in a bull market and we suspect that today's sharp pullback in bullion prices was a buying opportunity.
OIL TREADING WATER IN A TRADING RANGE
Crude oil continues to consolidate over the $84 a barrel level. Resistance comes into this market around $88-$90 a barrel range.
Don't forget to tune into MarketClub TV today at 4pm EST and see what our Trade Triangles are indicating.
Please leave a comment or email us at
ma**********@in*.com
with your questions for the show
Adam Hewison
Co-founder of MarketClub.com
The bitter pill is comming sooner or later and sooner will be less bitter than later. " Fiscal Cliff " ! just a media hype phrase to stir fear in folks and make them think that the same people in Washington that got us into this are some how going to get us out of it. Santas tool kit if the Fed and he will use it to the MAX, sequestration or not. The real problem is " Trust " meaning the lack there of, because there are very, very few that can be trusted to do what is good for America now. It's all about expanding Government, Power and staying in Power!
The fiscal cliff is not the problem it`s the solution to the problem. To stop the spending of more money than we take in. Womb to the tomb government programs. To stop the spending our grand children`s future. Better remember the four G`s God, Gold, Guns and Groceries
The MSM needs to stop giving credence to "fiscal cliff" hooey. It's a phrase containing reverse alliteration making it stick more in our minds than it should. Like "bra burning", it's a media creation.*
* Snopes, "Red Hot Mamas", 9/27/07
http://www.snopes.com/history/american/burnbra.asp
Sequestration's tax and spending changes would cut the federal deficit by $503 billion through next September and the economy by 0.5 percent next year, said a CBO report. Whatever economic fallout would occur from this comes over time, long enough to implement a better plan, or vote out those blocking it.
Economics Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman has already told us "How to End This Depression", http://bit.ly/IZ3rhb - in the same manner Truman and Ike dug us out after WWII. Tax the rich and invest in national infrastructure, creating many new jobs along the way.
Tax rates need not even be increased. Just remove the Social Security income cap, and require those with income over $250k to file twice: normally up to $250k, then again for everything over $250k with no deductions, exemptions, or special treatment for investment income.
Technically, it's no increase in rates, but still the rich will howl. Let them. Much more than after WWII, it's time they paid for their $#@! wars themselves.
It's hard to bet against the Santa Rally! In general, it's hard to beat Santa Claus. Just ask Romney LOL. Seriously though, with what is looming ahead (fiscal cliff) and the technical analysis pattern over the past 12 years of a HnS Top a high level of causion is in order. Fundamentally I can not grasp the market going up much further at this point. I would rather trust in the trade triangles.