September crude oil was higher overnight on speculation that inventories declined for a third week in the U.S., the world's biggest crude consumer. Today's inventory report is forecasted to show that U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week as refiners operated near the highest rates in five years. Despite overnight gains, September remains below the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 94.28. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness during the first half of August. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 94.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.83. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 86.92.
September heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 302.08. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 312.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 312.86. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 323.06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 296.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 292.15.
September unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight and trading above the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 299.82. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 310.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at 310.13. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 320.44. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 295.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.58.
September Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.992 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.897. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing near 2.992. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.715. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626.
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