Hello fellow traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday the 13th of January.
The FED vs Trade Triangles
How the FED missed the housing bust and the Trade Triangles got it right.
PULTEGROUP (PHM)
3 STOCKS ...
ALPHA NATURAL RESOURCES (ANR), CONSOLIDATED ENERGY INC (CNX) and ELECTRONIC ARTS (EA)
See how our Trade Triangles analyze these stocks.
RADAR ALERT ...
HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG)
We examine this stock in detail and show what our Trade Triangle technology is saying about the trend in this market.
Now,let's take a look at the charts with MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P 500 INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +75
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
With the market closed on Monday, caution should be used in this market today. A move below $1279 today will signal that a short term top is in place. We expect to see this market continue to consolidate over the $1280-$1270 levels. A small concern for us is the fact that the Willims %R indicator is flashing a negative divergence for this market. Two of our three Trade Triangles are green, signaling that a bull market is underway. Long and Intermediate term traders should now be holding long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
-----------------------------
Watch today’s S&P 500 Video Here.
-----------------------------
Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SILVER (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
The market action today shows us the $30.50 level is going to curtail any further short term strength. Yesterday, the silver market popped over the upper levels of its Donchian Channel. We suspect that this area will be an area of future resistance for silver. With a +60 Score, we remain in a trading range. The major trend is to the downside in the monthly Trade Triangles. Long-term term traders should be in short positions in silver with appropriate money management Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.
-----------------------------
Watch today’s Silver Video Here.
-----------------------------
Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLD (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bearish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
We are looking for the gold market to pull back from current levels. The gold market yesterday popped over the upper levels of its Donchian Channel. We suspect that the top of the Donchian Channel will now act as resistance for gold. The only Trade Triangle that is red and negative is the monthly Trade Triangle. With a Chart Analysis Score of +60, this market is in a trading range. With our monthly Trade Triangle in a negative position we are no longer quite as bullish on this metal. Long-term term traders should be in short positions in silver with appropriate money management. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.
-----------------------------
Watch today’s Gold Video Here.
-----------------------------
Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF’s:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COPPER (MARCH)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +70
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
We did not get sucked into the strength of yesterday's market action. The move on Thursday did not change our monthly Trade Triangle, which continues to be negative. With a Score of +70, we are stuck in a trading range. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in copper with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should now be on the sidelines.
-----------------------------
Watch today’s Copper Video Here.
-----------------------------
Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long JJC)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL (MARCH)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +55
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
The pullback in the crude oil market is setting up a buying opportunity once the downward momentum is over. A solid close over the $104 level is needed to drive this market to the $120 level. External world events can trigger moves in this commodity. With a Chart Analysis Score of +55, this market is now in a trading range. The crude oil market has major resistance at $104 and support at $97. Long and intermediate-term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
-----------------------------
Watch today’s Crude Oil Video Here.
-----------------------------
Suggested Crude Oil Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DOLLAR INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +100
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
With all three Trade Triangles in positive mode, this index is in strong hands. With a Chart Analysis Score of +100, the upward trend has once again reasserted itself. Our Trade Triangle technology has been long this index for quite some time and remains in a bullish mode. Long and intermediate term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
-----------------------------
Watch today’s Dollar Index Video Here.
-----------------------------
Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range -55
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
Yesterday's market action created a negative or bearish engulfing line which was confirmed with today's market action. This index reversed from that the top of the Donchian Trade Channel, which is now acting as resistance. With a Chart Analysis Score of -55, this index has once again fallen into a trading range. Our long term Trade Triangle remains negative for this index, while our intermediate signal is green and calling for higher prices. Long-term traders should hold short positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
-----------------------------
Watch today’s REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
-----------------------------
Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING
Free consultation, Free call.
Give us a call at 877–219–1482!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you tomorrow, right here with my weekend update. Have a successful trading day.
Take care everyone,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
The way I see the SP500 trends are long term bearish, intermediate term bullish and short term neutral. Good earnings will likely trump the current European situation this week with Greece being the wildcard. This week could bring anything, and probably will, including whipsaw. I know what I want to see, but I am not seeing it yet.
Ok... now I'm curious... are you suggesting the market is in a long term uptrend? In fact, it would be interesting to see something beyond the daily which is so volatile.
the market seems to have changed in terms of its phase or personality. The indicators I used successfully in Nov/early Dec are not working as well anymore. One indicator in terms of judging the SP500 is the stochastic, but the market club software does not seem to be so effective when trying to distinguish between overbought/sold situations vs an embedded stochastic signaling continuation of the trend, at least for me.
The market found pierced support at the 10 day MA of closes, and rallied back hard into the close. This could be an example of what I am talking about as it had every reason to make a low range close with the news and the dollar rally. Basically it seems to be discounting much of the European stuff and even the dollars action anticipating further consolidation before it moves higher. I expect a pullback but will be looking for a setup to go long depending on what it does with the 18 day moving average of closes.
It may be time for bears to hibernate again, intermediate term, at least.
The impact of s&p downgrade of France's tripple A rating will NOT be good for the market.
Expect the market after the long weekend to go down.
yeah I know i'm taking a HUGE risk here short term but my account has been 100% short the S&P since earlier this week. Next week will decide if I trim some profits or if I turn off the PC monitor until I see the crash in the newspapers!
Adam,
The markets will gradually be returning to 'thicker' volume (as of next week after the holiday), but this is also the beginning of earnings in the US. Do you still trade stocks during this period? Volume will be higher but would you trade a stock right up to (and even through) earnings even if there was a strong trend in place together with positive(negative) monthly and weekly TTs being issued? Thanks
Long S&P500? You must be joking! There are major trendline resistence points going back to October 2002.
short term who knows. just when you think the markets make sense they stop making sense, i.e. does anyone not know that the ECB is borrowing imagined money to borrow banks so they can make debt profit on debt, using "collateral" that is junk debt.
its just a matter of time until the charade ends, 3 months, 6 months, a year LOL!!!