Hello traders everywhere, Adam Hewison here co-founder of MarketClub with your 1 P.M. market update for Friday the 11th of November, Veteran's Day.
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CAN THREE BIG CHANGES IN EUROPE, SOLVE THE SOVEREIGN DEBT PROBLEM?
Greece's swearing-in of new Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is one change. The second change is a new president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. The third change, and this is a big one, and has not taken place yet, is when and if Silvio Berlusconi resigns from office. Mario Monti, is apparently the front-runner for the job. Not a big deal for Italy to change governments as they have had over 60 new ones since 1948.
With all the changes taking place in Europe, it isn't going to change the overall dire financial picture overnight. Changing governments is one thing, that easy, getting the citizens of that country to accept draconian austerity measures is a totally different can of worms.
The markets here in the US are like a roller coaster, so far this year the Dow has seen 88 triple digit trading days, compared to just 70 in 2010. As we have stated in some earlier blog postings, the volatility factor remains extremely high in all the markets as uncertainty reigns and rules the markets right now.
As always, we are going to rely on our Trade Triangle technology to help guide us through these crazy times.
Now, let's go to the charts and the video and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P 500 INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $1253.23
MKT HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
The lines are now clearly drawn in the sand for both the upside and the downside for this index. We believe that the $1220 level holds the key on the downside and the $1295 to $1300 levels are key barriers to this market moving higher. With a rating of +55 we continue to be stuck in a trading range. Intermediate traders should be on the sidelines waiting for a new Trade Triangle short signal. Long-term traders should either be in cash or continue to hold short positions in this index.
See today's S&P 500 Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +55
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Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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IS PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Free consultation. 877–219–1482
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SILVER (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $34.12
MKT UNCH FOR THE WEEK
The spot silver market continues to be trapped in limbo and seems unable to either move higher or lower. That is reflected in the current market action which is about unchanged for the week. As we have mentioned before this market remains in a broad trading range bounded by $33.50 an ounce on the downside, and $35.50 an ounce on the upside. With our trading score reading +55 we seen no clear-cut trend at the moment for this metal. Generally speaking, the major trend for silver continues to be negative based on our monthly Trade Triangles, the intermediate Trade Triangles remain in conflict based on our work. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate stops.
See today's Silver Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +55
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Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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IS PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Free consultation. 877–219–1482
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GOLD (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Trending higher after yesterday
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $1754.05
MKT HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
It looks like the gold market made a cyclic low yesterday and is currently trending higher for the day. The gold market is also higher for the week keeping the Bulls hopes alive for a move to the $2000 an ounce level. Our Trade Triangle score remains intact, with a positive +85 reading indicating that this market is in strong hands. Gold indicates to us to be concerned about what is happening in Europe and the financial markets. Long-term, intermediate term and short-term trends remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's Gold Video Here.
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Monthly trade triangles for Long-term trends = Positive
weekly trade triangles for intermediate term trends = Positive
daily trade triangles for short-term trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +85
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Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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COPPER (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: Fibonacci support at $3.30
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $3.563
MKT LOWER FOR THE WEEK
The pullback yesterday in the copper market came very close to achieving a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.30. Only our weekly Trade Triangle remains in a counter trend mode and we expect that indicator will turn negative again. We have stated this before, copper generally reflects economic conditions, and as such is influenced by equity prices. With a score of -65 this metal is beginning to a downward trend that will be confirmed when our weekly trade triangle turn red. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continue to be negative while the intermediate trend is in conflict with the longer-term negative trend. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in copper with appropriate stops.
See today's Copper Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -65
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Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long JJC)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: Resistance a $100 a barrel
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $94.48
MKT HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
The crude oil is pushing higher towards its march to the $100 a barrel level. The $100 level is an enormous psychological area for this market and we suspect that we will see profit-taking and yes some professional selling in at those levels. With a score of +70 this market maybe trying to move out of its broad trading range and reach the $100 mark. The $100 level represents a 61.8% retracement of the entire down move starting from the highs seen earlier this year in April. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
See today's Crude Oil Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +70
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Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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IS PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Free consultation. 877–219–1482
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DOLLAR INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Going higher
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $76.93
MKT UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEK
The dollar index dropped dramatically today, on the other hand the dollar index rose dramatically on Wednesday. This back and forth market action has not changed the overall general market direction for the dollar index which we consider to be still positive. We believe the $76.50 level will act as good support for this index. We are looking for a test of the $79.50 - $80.00 levels. While our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains in a positive mode, our intermediate term weekly Trade Triangle turned positive yesterday. Long-Term and intermediate term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
See today's Dollar Index Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +90
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Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $320.44
MKT UNCH FOR THE WEEK
This particular index is practically unchanged for the week and we see little reason to get enthusiastic about this market at the moment. Like many of the other markets we are tracking right now the CRB index is in a trading range with a score of +55. Resistance is evident at the $325 level and support comes in around the $315 area. Look for these levels to contain the market for the balance of the week. Our longer-term Trade Triangles remain negative for this index. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-Term traders should maintain short positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = +55
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Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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IS PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Free consultation. 877–219–1482
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HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub, I'll see you tomorrow with my weekend update, Have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
Now Leave euro and think and be prepared for other countries next will be other's turn. Neither weakness of Euro can not provide strength to others, Nor other's problem will be solved automaticaly.
Talking, thinking and considering more and more about Euro and Euro only, we kept ourselves un awair from other possible disasters, which are may tagged much higher cost.
Rasesh Shukla
Vote Ron Paul. He tells you what he stands for, and is owned by no one, not the Koch bros or Goldman, which is more than the others can say.
There is a simple answer to your question: NO ! ! ! Same thing applies here in the U.S., however, it could make a difference if we elected someone who was willing to prosecute those responsible for the immense financial fraud and corruption that continues to reign supreme, starting with arresting top officials at Goldman Sachs and JPM. (Considering the top contributor to Obama happened to be Goldman, what are the odds he is going to do anything about it?) The only candidate who mentions reigning in the Fed is Ron Paul, and the networks won't even mention his name, so I am not exactly hopeful . . .
Jim
Look up Elder impulse system charts... red, green and blue.
Good luck
Ralph
I fear the S&P monthly red trade triangle will turn green soon. If this is based upon price action, then it must. Comments about the European situation as just noise for analysis that should be based upon price. What seems to be lacking is some transition indication of green rolling to red. e.g. mix green with red and you get blue. There is no transition indicator; Just hard red and greens. What if a stock or market price is flat for years, what color do you give it ? What is a new market is just beginning, what color do you give it ? There is no color other that red or green that show transition.
This is my comment to the blog from Ralph
I am still believer in the triangles and the hidden algorithm(s) behind them, but the fact is that they have completely missed the biggest bear market rally in 20 years. There can be no argument about that. It's time to admit it. Long term players who shorted the S&P in August and bravely held on, are now so deep in the hole they can only HOPE for a massive cascading collapse - a small one won't do - to break even. If they kept "money management stops," as advised, they must be already out of the market at a big loss.
The days of buy and hold, as Adam Hewison has said repeatedly, are over (at least until the market becomes a secular bull again, which it will one day) but the days of sell and hold are equally over. Traders should trust neither Pollyanna nor Chicken Little.
The market will turn down eventually because that is what markets do - they go up and they go down. If your watch (or your algorithm) isn't working, and it's set at "sell and hold" you'll be right twice a day, but only for an instant.
I think we are headed for a big correction soon. Bulls be ware, don't get suckered into buying so called good stocks. This correction will hit everything.
watch out for crude oil market, could go up over $100 to 105-108 given some adverse middle-eastern event.
Europe is going down and so is the US, just a matter of time.
Adam,
I totally agree - these EURO financial problems cannot be fixed for a long time. Look at the SPX - it looks like a triple top with lower highs on miniscule volume.
That's like changing the colour on a wall... the room is still the same size even if it may appear different. I think more substantial changes are needed, including a reformation in the way we hold politicians and financial institutions accountable. Why is it that the tax payer always has to take the hit? It's time these Fattened PIIGS go back home rather than to the markets.