Slovakia, Slovakia, Slovakia

26 thoughts on “Slovakia, Slovakia, Slovakia”

1. Some hoard and sell news:

   Goldman and JPMorgan enter metal warehousing - Financial Times

   Metal Warehousing Pays Off For Goldman Sachs - Forbes

   Goldman's Secret Cash Cow: Detroit Warehouses Full of Metal ...

   J.P. Morgan reopens vault amid gold demand: report - MarketWatch

2. In other news this is pretty interesting:

   From FT:

   The CNIA estimated that Chinese copper stocks, not including those kept at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, stood at 1.768m tonnes at the end of 2010, up from 1.218m in 2009 and 282,000 in 2008. SHFE inventories were 132,000 tonnes in 2010, putting China’s total stocks at 1.9m tonnes.

   Other than exchange stocks, copper is held as working inventory by China’s manufacturing sector as well as by merchants, investors and the State Reserve Bureau, Beijing’s stockpiling agency. However, analysts, investors and traders are sceptical, noting that the world’s largest copper importer and consumer has an interest in inflating the size of its stockpiles, which could push prices down. The CNIA declined to comment.

   -----

   The consensus has been like 1.0-1.5 m tonnes.

3. After Greece it will be Portugal, Spain and Italy and later France and Great Britain. Setting precedents can be very dangerous.

4. I am from Germany and i hope that the Slovakia votes contra EFSF by the second votum.
   We all work very hard for the money. No more euros for Greece.
   The EFSF cannot crack this problem. I think it will only to delay and the result for all the people will be very very hard.

5. I agree it might be not fair for Slovakia, but when they joined the Euro it gave a very high grow and prosperous development for them. They left behind negative historic developments, and with the Euro they became one of the best economic countries in that zone of former east european countries. They can' pick out only the good and golden sites of the currency. The decline in value of the EURO will affect all countries who are part of the Euro zone

6. The market is signaling that more QE and money printing isn´t needed, which certainly is excellent. This should mean rising interest rates, probably not very good for debt-driven economies and sell-off of gold and silver to levels more or less befitting their industrial usage. Since the stock market is predicting happy economic times ahead without any further easing and debasing of currency, accumulating these metals at outlandish prices is obviously totally pointless.

7. I think S&P weekly trade triangle will be turned into positive today. In that case we can move to long..In 5 trading days S&P rallied 140 points..Thsi can't be only short covering..

8. Which will it be, or a combination/sequence of?
   1)The inflationary path to adjust the trade imbalances (via the appreciation of commodities as a function to penalize production)
   2)The deflationary path to adjusting the trade imbalances (via the depreciation of commodities as a function to penalize investment)
   3)The creation of a new Asian currency bloc to adjust the trade imbalances (via the increase and transfer of money, investment and debt as a function to stimulate growth, noting that private debt of emerging economies is underdeveloped)

9. No, its not fair, but unfortunately the production driven growth feeding the global economy is coming from the unsustainable trade surplus generated by China and other emerging economies. China in particular needs to privatize state assets and move towards a regional currency bloc with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc. China's currency in the context of global GDP and liquidity is too small to float on its own. Until then, the US and EU will print the trade surplus until inflation adjusts the trade imbalances.

10. Slovakia: just few updates: population here is over 5 miolions.
    And, we, Slovakia, are a small open economy. when moving into European union,we attracted investors on 19 percent taxes.. that´s why we are assembling place for cars, TV sets,... but no business made by "head". Once Romania, Ukraine or Bulgaria will offer better taxes, these factories simply move there to save their costs... and we can forget about ecnomic run...
    on the other side when entering into EU, we had to minimise our agrucultural outputs ( wheat, corn, grapewines,....)...before we were country exporting commodities like this..now we import...agriculture in on nees..
    that´s why I understand the man that stopped this bailout increase....with about 1/6 of working force deserving about 330 EUR as salary , pls do not expect that people are willing to feed those big fat greece asses..
    no matter if bailout would be approved or not..this all is only about how german and france banks should get back their money from Greece. And nothing else. once this will done, I expect powerfull Super-EUR for Germany and France, and the rest of europe cna have "normal" EUR...this is where is gets...
    so I just look for any suitable purchase of gold ( physical or future contract ), as I see problems with EUR in near-medium term...

11. I set up a company in Bratislava in 2008, before they changed to EURO. It was much better then to do business as the country has become more corrupt and the education is the worst in all of Europe. At least someone knows 1 or 2 people who bought their education. Slovaks are hard workers but that is all. They are not meant for leading unless they are playing hockey. The women are beautiful and that is all. Beauty is more powerful than brains. If you have both it is a challenge to have them at the same time. Slovakia joined the EU and knew that there could possibly be a default in the paper and should not back up. It is very undiplomatic and this will be remembered one day when Slovakia will need help. Slovakia has many cultures and Roma's are everywhere and it is the stubbornness of all countries that do not want to help others develop. As well, the Slovak language is a shame, no many know how to speak Slovak or write correctly and lately all words being formed in the Slovak language come from other countries especially English Speaking countries, but still the younger generation has no idea how to speak 2 languages. The tax rate is not 19%, but 20%. The fees and prices are much higher in Slovakia than in Austria. Its crazy and that is why everyone does s*** jobs because they get paid crap. Even if you pay them fairly or more they still screw up. They lack identity and are known as Nomads from the mountains. Yes, your cheese is good, but they lack self development and will feed their children all the crap from the world. Slovakia you are nothing but a s***** little country controlled by corruption and the future for you is to develop your own products (after you have privatized the whole country) you have nothing. Now you are running around chasing your own tail. Get an education, communism is dead and you need to wake up and do something and not expect to be helped from your Slavic brothers. By the way, I am Slovak and am disgraced because we are only known in Europe for good hockey players.

    Edited for content - The MarketClub Team

12. Hi Adam,

    What perplexes me most is the monthly chart of NYSE NET TICK. Its slow stochastic indicates that it is in the oversold zone and it has just done a golden crossover which sgnifies higher price for SPX has yet to come. Such a chart is quite a leading indicator and this is why it worries most. I am short the market to hatch my cash portfolio.

    While conversely and telling a bearish story is the monthly SPX chart which is sitting on or through the 200 day ema. If it is below I would be too happy. Supporting this bearish tone is a dead crossover in the slow stochastic. Many feel that current scenerio is similar to Sep-2010. Nevertheless it look different to me this time around because, most technical indicators on the monthly chart have somehow rollover the top.

    The SPX might go on to test the 1220 and if it breaks the last fortress of 1250, I shall surrender to admit that this is another Sep-2010 scenario.

    Cheers.

13. Dear Sid,
    I live in Slovakia, am 28 years old, university educated and speak 3 foreign languages (fluently). My gross salary at the beginning of this year was 1000 Eur per month which is considered very good in the market. Through a lot of hard work I have been promoted which brought along a raise of 400 EUR per month. After tax (which is now 20% to support the economy) and deductions, I receive around 1000 Eur into my account out of which I pay 470 Eur mortgage and 170 Eur in electricity, water and heating bills. What's left, I spend on food, leaving not much in the account at the end of the month. So excuse me, but 2500 Eur is a LOT of money for me!
    That said, I am pro-bailout and very disappointed and the spectacle that happened last night... We are not a self sufficient island but part of a struggling community. If the Euro falls, it will be far worse for us than paying 2500 Eur to a fat Greek.

14. I am from Slovakia. As regarded unemployment rate (above 13%), it should not be forgetten that there is 10% gypsies minority in Slovakia. There is above 99% unemployment rate through gypsies minority.

15. Hi,
    I am from Slovakia and looking forward to answer your questions, if there are any.

    In short: There are 4 parties that form a coalition. One of these parties, SaS, announced that there is no chance they are going to vote for EFSF. Just until now, Slovak government always acted according to a saying: "Shut up and do what the others do". There were huge expectations, mostly from the side of EU, Germany & France, as they didn't expect the Slovak parliament to vote differently than the rest of EU - against a "general" opinion. Problem is, that the prime minister of Slovakia swear to EU politicians that there isn't going to be any problem with the vote - back then, it was a main topic in all the media, as SaS couldn't understand how could the prime minister swear something without the coalition's approval.

    So, what happened yesterday?
    The prime minister used her last trick. She merged the EFSF vote with the vote for confidence in government. Basically, she gave SaS 2 choices to go for:
    1, you will vote for EFSF and with the same YES you will show your confidence in government
    2, you will vote against, so there won't be any EFSF, but the government will fall

    Result:
    They chose to vote against. The government fell. Other 3 coalition parties now accuse SaS of causing the fall of governemnt. In the first time of short history of Slovakia, a party decided not to vote politically, but by what they felt is right.

    I am sorry for my English, I am still working on it 🙂

16. I am living in Slovakia and many people (perhaps 1/3) with monthly income from 300 to 500 EUR (netto) and prices like in other western EU countries would not say that our taxes are low.

    I think that it will collapse either. The whole system is ill, we can not borrow so much money to upkeep countries that are living over their own possibilities. This is the real problem that needs to be solved and not giving money to everybody that doesn't know how to bring expenses under control. But with current EU staff I think it is not possible.

    The problem with unemployment is mostly caused by our gypsy ethnicum (~500k) that has no work habits and many of them are taking for more than 10-15 years only social benefits and producing childrens like in doll factory.

17. i might add that i did not sleep too well last night either being awakened by a dream during which i was catching rattlesnakes and milking their venom, not without trepidation, however.

18. my various puts including spy have been taking bad gas as the strength of this short covering rally has surprised me, and i, unfortunately abandoned my spy calls from S&P 1076 late last week. However, I did add to my spy and uso puts today. Alcoa reported bad earnings after the close, and i am looking for a down opening after that doji. however, i do not anticipate sleeping well tonight.

19. Chartwise, the S&P surrogate, SPY, held above its 55-day EMA, barely but still... If this is a bear market rally, the ETF will continue to be overbought every day it climbs. That's what happens sometimes. I am up 30% on SPY calls and will stay long until knocked out.

20. Yes, we can learn something from Slovakia, readers may recall that this little country lost 30 years of progress under communist rule and their new start in the 1990s to date is showing remarkable progress The people are very hard working and have good work ethics.

    Joe

21. > These two million people are now being asked to shoulder the debt burden of $5 billion as their share of the European recovery program. That does not seem fair to me.
    >

    If I got the math right that's only $2500 per person and given that these guys pay such low taxes its not so bad!

    Remember the whole Euro Zone benefits i.e. if the Euro zone collapses their economies will lose say 10% or 20% GDP due to the disruption and taking haircuts on their currencies. It would rival the Great Depression. They are just too used to the way things are, can't risk massive depression.

22. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Slovakia-rejects-expanded-apf-1181339657.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

    Earnings on AA already disappointed, looks like a slma to the floor the next few days for this stock, Yes,

23. Lets hope so..Not able to take any more pain ..

24. Solvaki has rejected the idea. Will Adams's "prophecy" come true. Will the markets tank tommorrow?

25. Dear John,

    There was very high unemployment in Germany, Weimar and so many other countries in history. Only due to printing money the currencies collapsed and hyperinflation happened fast.
    Beste read "This Time is Different" from Prof. Rogoff and Reinhard.

26. I have been to Bratislava several times, Your not going to learn anything. Did you see the unemployment rate.
    When you have a economy the size of nebraska it is a little easier to grow faster. The ECB is making this harder than
    need be. They should print $1 trillion in euros and give them to each country on a per capita basis. There is
    no danger of inflation when unemployment is so high, economic output gap so large, and wages stagnant.

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