Hello traders everywhere, Adam Hewison here co-founder of MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Monday the 22th of August.
Forget the news, if you want to trade successfully.
Many news stories, particularly when it comes to the markets, are basically fed to reporters by folks who have a vested interest in that particular market. I've seen this happen time and time again, when information is given to an online anchor or someone else who is on air and reading the latest news. The information that they report, may be not accurate. In the competitive rush to get news online, and be the 1st to break a story, very few stories are ever checked and triple checked.
So we wake up this morning with the potential conflict in Libya over, and Libya's Colonel Qaddafi's 42-year reign of insanity has maybe come to an end. Based on that news, the Dow rallies up over 200 points. Let's see, that little conflict cost the US about 1 trillion dollars, money we don't have. How could that be good for the market? Now we are tying the news in Libya to the markets here and the terrible economic conditions that exist - it is a stretch by anyone's imagination. The truth is, that the markets probably rallied based on a short covering. Many active traders went home with short positions over the weekend. When the markets did not follow through to the downside they quickly covered their short positions and pushed the market higher.
So here's my advice, do not pay too much attention to the news. Let the market, and the price action give you all the direction you need. Market action is the # 1 item to watch to be a successful trader.
Now, let's go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 90
Remember, despite the big call this morning, the major trend is down for the equity markets. Today's strong rally was probably an opportunity to go short. We see this market going lower.
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SILVER (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Our Trade Triangles kicked in perfectly with a buy at 42.20 basis spot. Based on this signal, all traders should be long this market or looking to trade silver from the long side.
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GOLD (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops. It looks more and more likely that we will get close to the magical $2,000 an ounce. We expect to see professional profit taking and some shorting at that level.
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CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 90
Despite the knee jerk reaction rally based on the news out of Libya, the trend in crude oil is bearish. Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops. The longer term trend for crude oil is down based on our Trade Triangle technology.
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DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
This market has remained in a fairly well defined trading range for the last several months. With a Chart Analysis Score of + 55 we would want to approach this market using our Donchian Trading Channels as well as our Williams %R indicator. The index remains below its 200 day moving average, while our longer-term Trade Triangle remains positive.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 100
While our bias is towards inflation, the index is currently indicating that we are in more of a deflationary scenario. We want to remain patient and let our Trade Triangles signal when this market has made a trend change to the upside. Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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Don't forget to watch this week's MarketClub TV show Wednesday, at 5 PM. We'll be covering all the markets and taking your questions.
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All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Good article. I would go one better and say that 90% of the time financial articles that say Dow XXXXX points due to YYYYYY are complete nonsense. Markets, particularly in the short term do NOT move on the "basis" of anything logical, period. Often YYYYYY could be used in the same exact article had the market gone the opposite way. One perfect example, unemployment numbers, which can cause stockholders concern when they move - either way - or cause money to move into the market when they move - either way. Likewise for interest rates. Climbing interest rates long term have a depressing effect on the economy. But in the short term, they MIGHT cause people to exit bonds and move into stocks, but they MIGHT convince stockholders that CD's are becoming an option.
In other words, the financial article industry is engaged in generating lots of poop.
I noticed that your World Cup Portfolio is long on corn, wheat and soybean. How to trade these on stock market? Are there any etfs tracking those? What are their symbols?
I have news for you, it is much worse than just the news. The market is so manipulated by the Federal Reserve Bank's POMO (at the behest of the US Treasury)and the giant banks and their HFT armies that you can't even trust the tools like technical analysis anymore. Traditional relationships between currencies, Gold (and other PMs), and inflation are all off the table. The ongoing shadow currency wars seem to be effecting US securities and commodities more than actual business success, but not consistently.
There is rife deception and distraction from the government, the banking cartel and he corporations because they know that the cheap plaster facade of what was once the Market is crumbling and irreparable. Bottom line is that you cannot use any of the old means to try to safely trade anymore, you and I are only there to provide spoils to the people running this loony-toons show.
I don't know where this will end, but I will not have penny one in the markets until some semblance of normalcy returns, it's a sucker's game right now. The (Global economic) music will stop again and again, will you be "seated in a chair" when it does, or will you be left standing like most investors are?
Adam:
Great job on your daily updates. I try never to miss them!
Are your updates available for the ipad ?
and
Any word on an MarketClub ipad app ?
Thanks
Bob,
We do not have an App for MarketClub on the iPad at this time. As for the videos you can watch them on your iPad here.
Cheers,
Jeremy
Hi Adam,
Good work in the last week by the way. Your updates and videos have included some very practical advice including specific ETF's and a little bit about one or two select shares outside of the big 6 markets.
Tristan
Tristan,
Thanks for your feedback and your positive comments. Always appreciated on this end.
All the best,
Adam
Hey adam ,welcome back from vacation hanging out with obama lol. Anyways keep up the good work. suggestion on daily updates to make it even more interesting pick a stock of interest that a new trade triangle signaled and put it in 1pm update or save it for the next marketclub tv, just took the 30 day trial figuring this thing out,been watching your free videos for months and you and trade triangles been gettin it right for months!!! I told alot of my online buds about this site. ps tell your marketclub tv sidekick her new hair job looks great. anyways thanks ragedmaximus
ragedmaximus,
Thanks for the positive feedback. Great idea with the stocks. I will try to incorporate a stock or other market each day in my daily comments.
All the best,
Adam
OK - last week INO comes out as a shameless shill for a service that says we should "trade the news on an instant basis" - and of course they'll be glad to have us pay them for the instant news. Today it's "ignore the news!". I think the TT service is good - but any credibility issues here? Just ticks me off to see it from someone as professional as Adam.
Wayne,
Thank you for your feedback. You are referring to a Guest Blog posting about two weeks ago and nothing that I have personally written. We have guest bloggers every now and then to give traders who have different viewpoints.
I stand by my post as it is how I trade personally with the Trade Triangles. Differing views is what makes a market interesting.
All the best,
Adam