Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your market update for Tuesday, the 12th of July.
WORD OF THE DAY: CONTAGION - the ready transmission or spread of an idea or emotion from person to person: a contagion of fear.
As we reported yesterday, this market is in a very choppy, emotional state and it is a battle between the Bulls and the Bears. Events outside of the control of the US in Europe and the contagion problems in Italy and Greece are all making this one financial mess.
Another disastrous trade deficit today of over $50.2 billion was not good news for the USA.
The debt ceiling talks continue between the Democrats and the Republicans with no apparent end in sight. Perhaps they should look up the word contagion, and relate it to how things can spiral so quickly out of control and take on a life of its own.
What is happening in Europe could very easily happen here in the US if we don't start addressing this problem. This is a real a crisis and Congress is treating it just like another minor problem we have to
solve. It has major implications for the US and it's standing in the world. Imagine if the dollar lost its reserve currency status! That would be catastrophic for this country and everybody who lives here. It would not be a pretty picture.
Let's go to the markets as they tell the real truth in what's unfolding in the financial world.
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S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
The resistance level we discussed all last week was enough to turn this market back down. The symmetry of the S&P is striking and should not be ignored as we could be making a right shoulder of a much larger head and shoulders formation. Although Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode, this market looks like it could be rolling over. Look for support to come into this market around the 1310 level.
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SILVER
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
Long-term and Intermediate term traders should now be long this market. We still believe that silver is building in major energy base to go higher. Look for support in this market at 34.30.
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GOLD
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 75
Gold is at the top of its Donchian trading channel and this remains a barrier. We continue to believe that gold is building a long term energy field to go much higher later in the year. Long-term trends with the Trade Triangles are positive while intermediate term trends are neutral.
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CRUDE OIL
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 70
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement brings crude oil to $93.30 for the August contract and it came very close today as the market hit a low of $93.55 before reversing to the upside. We expect that this level should offer good support for this market. Overall the trade triangles continue to reflect a negative trend.
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DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90
This index rallied just enough to trigger our long term trade triangles, which in turn put us in the bullish camp for this market. The longer term trend for the dollar index is still positive based on our Trade Triangle technology. Resistance remains between 77.00.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 70
This index is back to the midpoint of the Donchian trade channel and remains over its 200 day moving average. We expect that we will see more backing and filling in this market before it starts to move higher. Look for support at 333 and again at 330. Resistance starts at 345 up to 347.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves!
I see you're still faithfully trading the u.s. markets.Some people never learn.g'day and good luck..dave j
need more details on dollor index.thx
It would seem Copper should have an equal place with Gold & Silver due to its necessity and volatility - could it be added to your market blog
or could it be an inverted head and shoulders developing on the hard right edge of the chart?
Marketclub wrote:
The resistance level we discussed all last week was enough to turn this market back down. The symmetry of the S&P is striking and should not be ignored as we could be making a right shoulder of a much larger head and shoulders formation. Although Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode, this market looks like it could be rolling over. Look for support to come into this market around the 1310 level.