Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Monday, the 18th of July.
Well, Monday is here and we are no closer to solving the debt problem than we were last week. Europe is still a disaster and that's been reflected in the bank stocks today.
I was thinking this weekend... If everybody moved out of Greece, what would happen to the debt and who would pay it? I know it sounds weird to say, but the reality is with the euro zone you do have the freedom to work in other countries.
The world has changed, yet the politicians still think it's the same game. In the world of the Internet you can be based practically anywhere that's advantageous to you. In an example like Greece, which is so far underwater it seems they are never going to be able to bail themselves out... Why not just walk away from the debt? One could stand to reason that most well educated Greeks have the mobility and the language power to move to other countries in the euro zone and work.
Today's markets reflect what I was saying all last week in regards to the bank stocks which are under tremendous pressure today. BAC is down over 3% and other bank stocks don't look much better.
Gold and silver moved dramatically high today with gold topping the $1,600 an ounce level before some profit taking came in to the market. Silver is up close to 3% as I write this, and is moving higher and faster than gold percentage wise. So let's take a look at these markets in more detail and workout some target zones for gold and silver, as well as the banks.
Now, let's go to the markets and see how we can protect and make your money grow.
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S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
The 200 day moving average comes in at 1276 as does a long-term trend line from the lows set in March of 2009. That is the line in the sand for this market. We expect this level to be broken in the coming days and weeks.
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SILVER
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Traders should be long this market as all of our Trade Triangles are in a positive mode indicating higher prices ahead. As we have been indicating, we are expecting this market to reach highs towards the latter part of Q3 and early Q4. Look for support for this market at 36.00. The upside target for silver based on the Fibonacci count of 61.8% is $42.98.
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GOLD
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Traders who have been listening to my updates should be long gold. Short term traders should have taken the 52 week rule that we mentioned last Friday and have a trading unit on and have some nice profits in hand. We are looking for gold to move higher until the end of Q3 and possibly into Q4. Intermediate targets for gold are $1,642 and $1,650.
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CRUDE OIL
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 65
The -65 score indicates that this market remains in a trading range. At the present time, the crude oil market continues to have problems just over the $99 a barrel price point. Our Trade Triangle indicators both long and intermediate term remain negative for this market. Support comes in around $94 a barrel and resistance coming in just over $99. We are looking to buy this market later in the week, given the correct signals.
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DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
The Dollar Index has been trapped in a broad trading range for the past two months. The Dollar Index remains below its 200 day moving average. The longer term trend for the Dollar Index is positive based on our Trade Triangle technology. Resistance remains between 76.00 and 77.00. Support comes in today at 74.00.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 55
The CRB index remains in a broad trading range. At the present time, our Trade Triangle technology is mixed for this index. Resistance is now at 350 and support looks to be at 340.
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If you haven't watched our earlier 1 PM updates, check them out on this blog.
Don't forget to tune in every Wednesday at 5 PM Eastern time for the MarketClub TV show.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
Every success,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub
Seems to me the US is in for hard times whether they raise the debt limit or not
If they don't surely the market will go down and if they do maybe there will be a slight bounce
more inflation and later a even more severe drop. The only hope is for more jobs but those were
all given to china. They say unemployment is around 9% but there are close to 45 million on food
stamps that's close to 15%.Tornadoes,floods and now servere heat waves hitting our farmlands.
Food prices are going to go up. These Doomsday predictions don't seem so far stretched anymore.
GOLD PLUS TECHNOLOGY- The fact is that no country ever, could reach US+EEC's ,the recent technology,what we are seing a huge of change of advancing technologies in every field of life,consequences of that ONE DAY THE WORLD COUNTRIES, will ask the daily (Bread),from ... & this is against what is written in the Holly Bible...thanks.
Why does anyone live where they do & choose not to move to another place? Because they love being in the place in which they have put down roots, or quite possibly, never left since birth! Luckily, it's not so easy to give up on your home, regardless of how bad it gets.
If, on the other hand, one has moved to a place just for economics, I think it is much easier to abandon it later. For this reason, any ex-pats in Greece could easily decide to leave, yet one would expect they have already done so given the unrest. Interestingly, though, someone in my office just left for a family vacation in Greece, so apparently its still a nive place to visit! This person is of European origin, so perhaps Europeans have a much greater tolerance for, shall we say, complexity. I suspect we receive a very lopsided view of life in Greece in the news.
You have described exactly how our illegal immigration system works. The invaders, receive, education, healthcare, housing, food and anything else the irresponsible 'libs' and their 'Jackass' political dupes can think of!! LEL
Isn't that 'fiat' money?
What would happen if all or a majority of the US citizens converted their dollars into gold and silver? or a majority of the world's citizens of all the countries that have some money? Would it shift the balance of power out of the hands of big banks and goverment? I don't think those in control would allow that to happen. That is most likey why in the 1930's it became illege to own gold and the price of gold was fixed to the $32 oz.
Thank you for the succinct, no-nonsense analysis.
The U.S. CANNOT DEFAULT??? The words of explanation you refer to are an exercise in MOPE (Management of Perception Economics) akin to perception management developed by the Department of Defense (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perception_management ).
Read "When Money Dies" by Adam Fergusson (available as a pdf here http://www.goldonomic.com/When%20Money%20Dies.pdf ) This work describes the currency collapse of the German Mark during the Weimar Republic. Prior societies have also firmly believed that economic collapse to be impossible, but they were mistaken.
Take the time to read this short book (160 pages) and you will see the effects of what the Federal Reserve refers to as Quantitative Easing--the printing of massive quantities of currency. QE is being performed as a result of the bloated US debt structure, brought about in order to satisfy the spending enacted by Congress... the effects of which are destroying the U.S. dollar and bringing the nation to the bring of economic devastation and DEFAULT. YES DEFAULT. The danger is very real, and no amount of PROPAGANDA by government types or pseudo-journalists writing with the aim to calm the citizenry and investors, will change the facts at hand.
I was astounded at the similarities between Europe of the 20's and 30's and our own economic realities. Do your own due diligence, ignore the 'talking heads' spew of supposed wisdom; research the facts yourself and come to your own conclusions. Not only can the U.S. and the European Union come to an economic Armageddon, it may in fact happen, bringing down the U.S. dollar, the Euro, the Yen, and Pound Sterling. Look into asset protection in precious metals and commodities, and by all means lower your own debt footprint.
What if everyone moves out of Greece? Well they could go to Britain where the present laws allow all Europeans to claim welfare(which includes free medical and free housing)from the day that they arrive. One newspaper estimated that 50,000 Greeks would arrive in UK to settle(no, I don't know how they got that estimate).
Strangely, this generous social law is not reciprocated in Greece, or in many other European states.
Here's a good blog about
why the US could not default:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/fundmastery/2011/07/12/the-u-s-treasury-will-not-default/
What you're talking about is a "strategic default." We hear about it all the time with US home loans. My theory is that the same will eventually happen in all countries whose citizens have been saddled with enormous debt, in many cases for things they didn't even benefit from. This obviously includes the US. Instead of paying off the debt (through currency devaluation, higher taxes, reduced services, reduced standard of living) relocate your sources of income and assets away from USD and let others pay off the debt that you had nothing to do with incurring: Strategic default