Stocks are hovering near two-year highs, yet there doesn't seem to be a collective sigh of relief that the market as a whole is headed up. Are investors still wary because of the aftershocks of the recession?
Loading ...If you're vote bearish or neutral, what will it take for you to join the rest of the bulls? Please tell us below in our comments section.
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Bearish - Before turning bullish I would want to see the Bullish Sentiment come way down. Last week one survey showed that 72% were bullish. That number is an extreme level not seen since the top in October of 2007 and April of 2010 before the Flash Crash. I would also like to see larger cash positions in mutual funds. The market is very complacent with very little fear. It is not a good time to be a buyer of stocks. However, there are many opportunities in the market. ETF's can be traded with great success. Recently, I made a good trade in UCO which is a crude oil ETF. I have also been long the QID which is an Ultra Short NASDAQ ETF.
Extremely Bullish as of this morning. If today the DOW 12,263 R1 holds and has now become support then we have a high probability of seeing 12,950 R2 pivot point. Mid Pivot Point is 12,600. The big blue arrow is still pointing UP. R2 pivot point has a 80% probability of pivot down and I will consider shorting there. Could it take until April or May that it could be reached? We shall see between now and then.
I understand other comments about the fundimentals and the events going on and agee with them BUT I am a stupid trend follower. What can I say.
BEARISH - I personally see a gloomy picture with an administration set on increasing spending hence the dept, huge inflation which has been ignored by the market with a bad economic picture in the US for the near future..... and much, much more! In conclusion I am weary of a car that is out of gas and still run at 120 miles an hour.
We are playing musical chairs and when "Helicopter Ben" stops fiddling we will need a chair - Fast!
It doesn't matter. The United States has the most gold reserves by far of any country in the world and has best military. When you have the most gold and best guns, and the most productive work force on the planet,nothing else matters.
All I can say is that right now the big blue arrow is pointing north for most sectors. Tomorrow things may change, but that is what stop losses and paying attention are all about. My economics knowledge is limited so I'll let others decipher all the QE2 And PIGS and such.
this result give me confidence that this bull market has a lot of room to continue run, until we see 70% bull, which is very remote, maybe another year to absorb those bear.
When BHO and his administration is out of the White House. His Executive Orders and his EPA Deptarment along with all of his union bosses and lobbiest are gone. He just has to many job killing programs for our country to get back on it's feet. With our 1.5 TRILLION DEBT thanks to BHO and the free spending milloniars in Congress we will soon be like Greece, Ireland, and Italy, but there will not be any one who can bail us out and then our country will just be history.
When BHO and his administration is out of the White House, then and only then will the economy start picking up after repealing most of his Executive Orders and his EPA start of Cap and Tax. Plus going green right now is just to expensive.
The us market is a rigged market dominated by the treasury and can NO LONGER be called a FREE MARKET.
It is manipulated and dominated by people such as JP Morque(JP Morgan).
Stay away from it and invest somewhere else if Q2 is over and no Q3 get in place market will collapse.
Time to get short my target for the DOW JONES is 5000.
Invest in GOLD and SILVER .
My neutral vote does not count, nor do all the other votes – the days of bull and bear markets are over, its only fast foxes now that can go with the big money flow. The usual suspects which are too large to fail have gotten bigger and have out sourced their market moves to “Watson and HAL”. The Fed is e-printing all the money they need to run the low volume market up, for now, and providing all political persuasion wealth needed to deal with any suggestions for serious reforms or real investigations. The “Flash Crash” should have been a big clue, normal market indicators get whacked by larger computer trading volumes. So with political clowns to right of me and clowns to the left, I am neutral; I have out of the money puts hedging longs. I take small nipples and quick profits; Woody Allen’s market advice works – “take the money and run”.
I agree with Steve and I'll take it a step further. Short term bullish to Apr/May, Med term bearish to Sept, Long term bullish to 2015. I feel bad for Glacier who thinks we are in a a secular bear market rally. Dude....really? This is the biggest bull market in a century, maybe ever. And Laurence....come on man 4000? What Cool-Ade are you drinking? You'll probably go all in at Dow 17,000. Obviously, the country has problems which required actions like QE2 etc. that kept it from falling into depression. All was neatly avoided by Fed. Did great job avoiding banking crisis. Now that would have been a problem. It all stems from Clinton Admin pressuring Fanny May and Freddie Mac to lower underwriting standards. His error was from the best of intentions so I can't blame him, then wall street pumped it with steroids and it all came tumbling down during a typical recession. That's our economy. Recession followed by boom and so on and so on. Don't be surprised when we fall into another recession again in 2016/17. The good news, this time we really got a wake up call on our Country's debt and deficit. States too. Its not too late. Not even close. But corrective actions need to be taken. And will. I think the politicians get it now. we will start to elect folks like the Fla Governor. Don't particularly like him, but he will right the ship here. Problems overseas. No Duh, always has been, always will be. Don't let it catch you by surprise again. With China and India awakening, all will be well for world economic growth . Europeans have plenty of grey matter to solve their own problems. Lorraine, of course were doing business out of town. Always have, always will and more so is a good thing. When unemployment falls this year to 8%, and it will eventually, always does, this will continue to feed the Bull. Then the housing market rocket will ignite the second stage of the Bull in 2012/13. More fuel when unemployment drops to 6% then full steam ahead until we get to 4% in 2014 and coast into 2015 when Laurence finally gives up and gets into the market. Now you know the answers before the test is given. Good luck and more importantly, have fun and enjoy the travel cause it ain't the destination that's important.
Neutral
AMEN!
Who cares! The trend is your friend!!
1000 on the nasdaq& I will be a bull
THERE ARE PLENTY OF REASONS WHICH WE CAN CHOOSE FROM
1. INFLATION: JUST LIKE DURING THE SUMMER 2008
2. MORE & MORE DEBT....NO COUNTRY CAN SOLVE DEBT PROBLEMS BY ISSUING MORE DEBT.
3. CHINESE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IS LOOMING.
4. DEFICITS & MORE DEFICITS.
5. MUNI BOND PROBLEM
6. PIGS ARE INSOLVENT, EURO IS OVERVALUED.
7. UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE WESTERN COUNTRIES IS WAY ABOVE THE MEAN.
8. A WEAK DOLLAR, YET AGAIN...FROM A CONTRARIAN PERSPECTIVE THIS PRETTY BEARISH FOR STOCKS.
9. REAL ESTATE FORECLOSURES LOOMING AGAIN.
ANY OF THESE WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE THE MAKET MOOD.
BEST TO ALL!
JUAN.
Isn't the reason all of us subscribes to MarketClub is for help in identifying the current trend and taking or not taking a position? So follow the trend.
The other day a retailer had a sign up that stated they would not take American dollars. What does that say? I live in Canada!
Elvis! You still owe me $50. I'm all of the above. I want to be bullish but with some commodities topping out, local and foreign issues, I find myself long, short and in cash! What is one to do? Maybe we will see a correction in time rather than in price. Though down in the pit of my stomach I have that uneasy sensation there's a cliff approaching and the markets are in for one h3ll of a ride!!!
Bull markets climb a wall of worry. Eventually they reach the end of that wall. Bears have warned of an imminent correction since the September rally! Eventually they will be as right as they've been early. Trust the trade triangles!
Short-term bullish
Medium-term bearish
Long-term bullish
(just don't ask me to define the time-frames 😉
Neutral to bearish...market is just too over bought. Once we get a correction, I will look to go long.
In the short term bullish sentiment is way too high, stocks above their 200 day avg are starting to flatten, but the market keeps stair stepping higher. I'm looking for a correction at any time. It will probably come out of nowhere, as usual, another Mideast riot, blocking of the Straits of Hormuz or whatever. Then I think the market will come back until the Fed endsQE II. The we get back to real reality and it should be interesting. An inflated Wall Street doesn't necessarily make for a stable main street.
It is difficult to have confidence in something that is constantly goosed to make it go higher. We have lost the ability to properly value stocks just on earnings.When the punch bowel is removed, watch out
I have been bullish but do not want to buy up here. 15,000 objective on DJII, at some point. Am shorting commodities (not metals) through ETF's.
Bullish. The Dow broke throught the yearly R1 pivot at 12,263 and will head to either R2 12,950 or if not the mid point of 12,600 before a bounce downward. Also lots of new money coming into the market until April 15th for retirement money so there is plenty of time to reach the higher Resistance levels until May when I will go away. I have enjoyed this huge bear market ralley with regards to my monthly chart. I never listen to the BS in the economic numbers that come out because they are cooked. By the way if DOW reaches 12,950 Resistance 2 there is a 80% probability of downside. I like those odds. Be careful between now and then.
We are in a secular bear market rally. So I'm bearish but hedged until a Dow Theory sell signal occurs.
Guess the bulls are afraid to speak...all comments either neutral or bearish. The gov's QE and allowing the dollar to free-fall will bring about massive inflation down the road (probably in 2011). We are looking at unemployment and housing in the dumps. Those are the two things that can drive the market up. Until they turn around, we will see the market trend downward perhaps 20% to 30% on the downside.
we need a correction. stock I have halved this morn before returning to 80%. scary
I'm waiting for a correction because most say it is coming but I remember the last run-up about 10 years ago "everyone" was waiting for a correction and it never came. I missed the fun that time and caught the grief. It seems like this is a repeat.
The market is way over extended.We'll get a good pull back at some point. I have a shopping list ready when the correction comes (maybe after earnings season).
Bob
Are you kidding. Have you not heard the trend is your friend? Oh yeah let's try to pick a top here. Go right ahead. QE2 is an issue, but look who controls 80% of open interest. Watching them move is like watching an elephant in a room. Of course if you are sitting in the room with the elephant and you are not prepared for when he moves (is a male elephant-sorry ladies)guess what can happen to you. There will be a time to short, no doubt but to say you are bearish now. What you have not had a nice ride up. Anyone who trades should be having a great time in these markets the past 4-5 years.
10% correction would make me bullish
Trade the trend.
Trade the trend.
Trade the trend.
(but use stop loss!)
For me to turn bullish - DOW 4000
The vix to move one way of the other.
I voted neutral because my views are mixed. I think generally the equity and commodity markets will be bullish through the end of QE2. That does not mean we will necessarily go there in a straight line. I am rather wary of a short-term correction as many of the sentiment and momentum indicators that I follow are topping out. I use the term "wary" carefully because it may be my concern is misplaced and the bulls have the power to keep going for a while.
That said I am looking to review my stops carefully and think about looking to shorter term trade triangles than I usually use to inform my investing and trading decisions. (If you are interested in my philosophy, my blog is paladinmoney.com)
Once we get past QE2, I'm not so sure. I don't think there will be a QE3. Also, anyone who thinks we are not seeing increasing inflation needs to clean their rose-tinted spectacles, in my honest and respectful opinion. The last calendar half of 2011 may not be a good environment for equities (I will be delighted to be proven wrong). I will not be surprised to see the second half being flat at best. Commodities? That could be a different story and I would like to see more from Adam and Marketclub on futures and index trading. I have not spent much time in the bond market but I am starting to research inverse bond ETfs as I think they may provide one avenue to profit later this year.
I sure am enjoying this "BEAR" market. I'm up close to 18% in the past 12 months. I really won't start worrying till the heard starts to get back into the market. Keep up the Bear market!
I'm neutral only due to the fact that we've had a 330+ point run from the July 2010 lows without any significant correction and quite simply a 30 to 50% pullback seems reasonable in these overall market conditions. Perhaps the end of QE2 might signal a sizable correction.
until the fed lets the market do its own thng..i am neutral
Bullish-the purchase of bonds by the fed, combined with the despiration of pension funds and hedge funds will drive this market for a while. Once the fed stops purchasing is when things will get interesting.
YOU'RE ALMOST RIGHT - GERMAN DAX WILL BE UP STRONGER THAN YOU EXPECT!
overbought to become bullish need a reaction. basically i use technical only and wonder when the bubble will burst.
Bear - short term, then Bull for awhile.
I think the Fed can continue to pump up the stock market, however we are over due for a correction.
As some of our more astute commentators have pointed out, there are some fundamentals that pose a stock valuation problem (at these levels) that could be rebalanced with a decent correction.
Anyone else struck by the fact that the poll is split between Neutral, Bull & Bear?
I go whichever way the wind blows.
The market gives the signals.
Bearish midterm -- sooner or later this will return to the fundamentals, which as noted above, are bad.
Till then (and always) -- the ticker is the truth, the sun is shining, and I'm making hay. Use those triangles!
gosh, I don't know how I could become bullish. Maybe Elvis, Victor, et al. changing their minds.
the economy is way over pumped by the fed, it would not be standing on it's own. i feel it's all smoke and mirrors. how can you have a have a healthy economy with so many people out of work? the corporate world is merely doing business out of town for their survival. we are no better off than the piggs when it comes to debt. and we have a socialist for a pres. and no viable alternatives in the "other party".
I think Elvis just about summed it up. An articulate devil!
The BEAR overshadows the equity and bond markets and most currencies in my view. US numbers are uptrending thanks to the PPT (Plunge Protection Team), and the massive printing, QE, of money by the FED. Can anyone with a serious face, really make an argument that the economy is on solid footing with such MASSIVE debt, high unemployment, flight of capital to foreign shores, continuous tax base erosion due to tax cuts for corporations, and the very wealthy?
Do a Google search and you will see that hundreds of Municipalities and many States are on the verge of bankruptcy; police and firefighters are being let go, city services are being cut; how dependable can the US gov be viewed as a source of fiscal salvation for MAIN Street, with current Gov debt levels?
Who will bail out our cities? How much more QE can the country handle? What will happen if this scenario engenders a US Treasury collapse? Check out the website http://www.shadowstats.com for the true numbers on unemployment, GDP, CPI and the no longer available M3 numbers. Can anyone really believe that the economy is rounding the corner of the recession/DEPRESSION and that those mystical "green shoots" predict an upward bound economy/market.
In my view: If the technicals are in question as a result of the PPT and the FED; one is forced to THINK FUNDAMENTALS! Therefore the conclusion has to be bearish. BUT the market may head up, one should not forget TULIP MANIA mentality.
Read about it here http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes2.asp
Bearish until we have a spiritual revival. The situation hasn't gotten bad enough to bring us as a nation to our knees and it will continue to worsen until we do. All good things come from God and he is removing his blessing from us in an attempt to draw us near to him so that we realize our hope is in him, not in our bank accounts, stocks or bonds.
bearish---dont see improvement in employment or bogus numbers. Market is overbought, risky, and being pumped by the banank. Inflation, new taxes, and the bimbo pretending to be the king has no clothes or a clue. Debt has not disappeared, Europe is going down the tubes and China is taken the punch bowl away. "Thank you very much" Elvis