Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 53.83 a barrel while currently trading at 53.70 basically unchanged as I'm looking for a breakout above 54.34 for a bullish position to the upside as prices have gone nowhere over the last 2 months. Oil in Wednesday's trade hit a 9 week low creating a false breakout to the downside before rallying & finished higher on the trading session as prices have now traded up for the last 3 consecutive days so keep a close eye on this market as I still think higher prices are ahead. OPEC continues to hint that they might cut production in 2017 as they would like to see prices between $65/$75 a barrel and I think they will use their power to enhance prices as we are still trading above the 20 & 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as a breakout is looming in my opinion as we are just not going to trade sideways forever as the commodity markets still look bullish in my opinion. If prices do break the 54.40 level, I think we could retest the double top around $56. However, we need some fresh fundamental news to push prices higher as the dollar remains stubbornly high.
TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.48 an ounce while currently trading at 17.77 up around $0.30 for the trading week continuing its nonvolatile bullish momentum as I've been recommending a bullish position over the last month with an average price around the 17 level and if you took the trade place your stop loss at 10-day low which now stands at 17.10 as that will improve on Tuesday at 17.26, therefore, lowering monetary risk. The next major level of resistance is Wednesday's high around 17.87 & if that is broken, I think prices will head to the $18 range as I'm also recommending a bullish position in copper which is up about 1000 points this Friday afternoon as I remain bullish the entire precious metal sector. Silver prices are now trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as I still think prices are going to retest the $19 level that's where silver was trading right when Trump was elected, as the commodity markets are looking strong despite the fact that the U.S dollar remains firm so continue to play this to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID - IMPROVING

U.S. Dollar Futures

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 99.84 while currently trading at 100.81 up about 100 points for the trading week as I've been recommending a bearish position from around the 99.85 level & if you took the trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was touched earlier in the trading session at 101.01 on a closing basis only. The dollar is trading higher for the 7th consecutive trading session with very low volatility as we are hanging in there by the skin of our teeth as I'm also recommending a bullish Euro currency as the commodity markets are higher across the board today despite the strength in the dollar. Prices are trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the short-term trend is higher, but I will continue to place the proper stop and if we are stopped out then look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the trends are coming back mostly to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Mexican Peso Futures

The Mexican Peso in the March contract is trading high by 30 points for the trading week still hovering right near a 7 week high at major resistance around the 49 level as I have talked about this currency in recent blogs looking at entering into a bullish position once the chart structure improves. The Mexican Peso is trading above its 20-day but right near its 100-day moving average as we had a nice rally off of the historic lows around the 44 level, however the 10 day low stands at 4600 risking around $1,500 from today's price levels as I would like to see that be lowered to around $800/$900 risks which could happen in tomorrow's trade right around the 4800 level so keep a close eye on this currency as a possible position could be at hand. The Peso has been under extreme pressure ever since Trump won the election. However, I do believe that all of the bad news and perceptions has already been reflected in the price so play this to the upside on any price dip.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Euro Currency Futures

The Euro currency settled last Friday at 1.0781 while currently trading at 1.0662 down about 120 points for the trading week as I have been recommending a bullish position from around 1.0700 as prices traded below that in early trade only to rally as that is based on a closing basis only. The original risk on this trade was around $400 plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is outstanding as we are right near a 2 week low as I'm also recommending a bearish U.S dollar which rallied in early trade only to trade negatively at this time. The commodity markets, in my opinion, look to move higher as many of my trade recommendations are to the upside and I'm hoping that the Euro currency can propel prices higher if we start to rally as prices hit a seven-week high in last week's trade. The Euro currency is still trading above its 20-day but below its 100-day moving average telling you that the shorter-term trend is lower, but the main reason I took this trade was that the risk/ reward was highly in your favor with outstanding chart structure, so everything met criteria.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,006 an ounce while currently trading at the same price as I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 1,008 level and if you take this trade place your stop loss under $988 as the chart structure is outstanding. Platinum prices are down $16 in early trade this Friday morning so take advantage of the price dip as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend remains to the upside. At present I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and in the copper market as the precious metals, in general, continue to move higher, however, early strength from U.S dollar has put pressure on platinum, but the risk/reward is now in your favor which is what trading is all about. The next major level of resistance is yesterday’s high of $1,032 which were levels that we have not seen since the month of October and if that is broken you would have to think that the bullish trend would continue so play this to the upside while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 148.70 a pound while currently trading at 147.90 basically unchanged for the week as I was recommending a bullish position last week getting stopped out taking the loss and moving on as the chart structure was excellent at the time. However, prices continue to drift lower. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average which stands around 152 as I am still bullish coffee prices over the longer term, but when prices hit a 2 week low its time to move on & look at other trends that are beginning. At the current time, coffee is mixed to sideways. However, that doesn't mean we won't be involved relatively soon once again so keep a close eye on this market as this is a sleeping giant which is the largest commodity contract in the world as the risk is always higher in coffee than any other market. Growing conditions in the country of Brazil are currently ideal as certain dry pockets received substantial rain over the last week sending prices lower as its a long growing season and things can change on a dime as I remain bullish the entire commodity sector.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 76.41 while currently trading at 75.80 down about 60 points for the trading week reacting neutral to yesterday's USDA crop report as I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 73.40 level if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10 day low which now stands at 74.06 and in 2 days will be raised to 74.91 as the chart structure is outstanding. Cotton prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average still looking to retest the contract high that was hit in August around the 78 level despite the fact that we have traded higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session but all small gains as volatility remains low. The grain market has come to life in recent days, and I think that will start to support cotton prices as spring planting is right around the bend as volatility certainly is going to increase exponentially in my opinion so continue to play this to the upside as I still think higher prices are ahead.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Wheat Futures

Wheat futures in the March contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4.30 a bushel while currently trading at 4.42 up about $0.12 reacting positively off of yesterday's USDA crop report trading higher 3 out of the last 4 trading sessions hitting prices that we have not seen since October breaking major resistance in my opinion. I am now recommending a bullish position once again in this market from around the 4.40 level as I was bullish this market for quite some time getting stopped out a couple of weeks back taking a small loss, but the chart structure is still solid as the 10 day low stands at 4.13 risking around $0.27 or $1,350 per contract plus slippage and commission. The chart structure will improve in the next 2 days as the 10-day low will be raised to 4.20, therefore, lowering the monetary risk as the bullish trend is intact in my opinion so that I will take another shot at the upside. Prices are now trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average for the first time in months, and that tells me that the tide has turned and if you have not taken this trade wait for some type of price dip to enter to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID - IMPROVING

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 2083 while currently trading at 1977 down over 100 points for the trading week as prices have now touched levels that we have not seen since October 2008 as there is still a possibility in my opinion that 1500 could be the next level of major support. I have not been involved in this market as I'm kicking myself as this has been a great trend to the downside, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as this trend is very strong as prices are still trading far below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you the short-term and long-term trend, in this case, is to the downside. The problem with cocoa at the present time is there is very weak worldwide demand coupled with the fact of large production coming out of the Ivory Coast as this is why they want to trade with the trend as picking tops and bottoms is very difficult as you don't know how low or how high prices can actually go. If you do have a short position, I would continue to place the stop loss above the 10-day high as an exit strategy and remain short.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Trading Theory

Trade with the short-term trend, as the saying goes in futures trading the trend is your friend, but sometimes you will be in a market that is trending higher and then has a false breakout to the upside and then suddenly sells off causing you a 2% loss on your equity and you say to yourself that was a bad trade and should I do something different on my next trade.

If it were up to me, I would continue to buy strength and sell weakness because in the long run commodity trading is about percentages of success in the long run, and if you go with the path of least resistance more often than not you will have the probabilities of success on your side.

I define a trend as a commodity hitting a 20-day high or low as a trending market. If the market is in a consolidation stay away from it and find something that is trending up or down and goes in that direction remembering the money management rules of 2% maximum loss if you are wrong.